The Editor's Desk - Wed 10 Dec 2025: Eskom’s smelter lifeline — and the ideology holding SA back

Eskom’s talks with Glencore point to a new path for SA industry — but ideology still threatens growth. I unpack what it means for your money.PS. You can book tickets for the inaugural NdB Liberty Indaba by clicking here. And you can book tickets for the post BNC#8 golf day sponsored by Shyft, by clicking here..Don't miss out on future episodes of The Editor's Desk. Subscribe to BizNews Premium and get the podcast delivered to your inbox daily..Listen here.Read the full transcript of The Editor's Desk podcast below.Hello and welcome, I’m Alec Hogg. You’ve read the headlines on BizNews.com, caught up on the BizNews Briefing, watched the interviews on BizNewsTV, and — I trust — tuned in to BizNews Radio for our podcasts, which is where you’re getting this one from. Now, let’s talk about what the latest developments mean for your money.This is the Editor’s Desk — exclusive analysis for BizNews Premium members. Today is Wednesday, 10 December 2025. I’m glad to have you with me.There should be far more attention on what’s happening at Eskom right now, particularly its negotiations with Glencore–Merafe and Samancor. Smelters rely heavily on electricity, forming a crucial part of the beneficiation chain the South African government champions. And beneficiation makes sense — especially in chrome and manganese, where we’re among the best endowed in the world. Exporting raw ore is not smart. Beneficiate it.But smelters need competitively priced electricity — and that’s where the crisis lies.South Africa’s electricity no longer competes globally. In fact, it’s sometimes cheaper to ship ore to China and smelt it there. That’s how bad it has become. And yet, smelters sustain thousands of jobs and generate major foreign exchange earnings.Two years ago, Eskom granted a 40% discount to smelters. Even that hasn’t been enough. Yesterday, Merafe issued a SENS announcement, and NUMSA informed members that planned retrenchments — preceding smelter closures — have been put on ice. The parties have given themselves a breathing space until end-February to find a solution that keeps the smelters operating. Perhaps.I spoke this morning to Agnes Malambo, Eskom’s Group Executive for Distribution. Fascinating conversation — it’s in tonight’s Director’s Cut, with highlights on the BizNews Briefing on eNCA at 7:30pm.And what emerged is vital for South Africa’s industrial future.Eskom has spent years just trying to keep the lights on. But after the policy shift that incentivised private-sector electricity generation — reversing the ANC’s failed “developmental state” doctrine — the landscape has changed. Load shedding lost the ANC millions of votes. Once support drops below 50%, decline accelerates.South Africa’s National Development Plan (NDP), designed by Soviet-inspired thinkers in the 1950s and ’60s, is now totally out of sync with a modern economy where artificial intelligence is reshaping jobs. And yet, the ANC remains attached to this outdated ideological framework.The IMF now projects SA’s growth at 1.3% this year and 1.4% next year — below our population growth of 1.6%. That means another year of declining GDP per capita. Elites grow richer, the poor grow more desperate. Without growth, the “fit will hit the shan”.Back to Eskom. Malambo says the utility is adopting a new blueprint: negotiating industry-specific electricity deals. If smelters get special pricing, expect cement, steel, and mining producers to follow. With surplus electricity now available thanks to private generation — yes, South Africa has a surplus — Eskom must both protect industrial capacity and secure demand for its supply.For the first time in years, Eskom appears to have leadership that understands this balance. They want to avoid further industrial hollowing-out while ensuring stable demand. It’s a major positive — and one most people are missing.Contrast this with the ANC’s discussion document ahead of its latest conference: doubling down on the NDP and the “developmental state” ideology, despite the IMF explicitly warning SA to unleash private-sector growth. Treasury, SARB, and SARS remain strong institutions. The potential is enormous — but ideology keeps standing in the way.This reminds me of Plato’s distinction between two forms of ignorance:Those who don’t know and know they don’t know — who can learn.Those who don’t know but think they do — the dangerous ones.Much of our policy malaise falls into the latter camp.A modern example: gambling. Only one side wins — and it’s never the punter. The lottery is a tax on people who don’t understand maths. But that form of ignorance can be fixed through information. It’s why BizNews exists: to open eyes.Thankfully, Eskom now has leadership that does know better. People like Mteto Nyati and Dan Marokane, and — from my conversation — Agnes Malambo. Their thinking could be pivotal in getting SA growing again.Investment insightsA report from HCI this morning — now part of our BizNews portfolio — disclosed a R650m share buyback at R130–R135 per share. The stock now trades around R140. Management also has approval to buy back at least the same amount again.HCI trades at around 60 cents in the rand of asset value. I’m very comfortable owning it.Liberty Indaba & BizNews ConferenceI’ve uploaded the Neil de Beer Liberty Indaba — happening 9 March. Tickets are now available on Quicket. Speakers include Helen Zille (opening), Michael Louis, Corné Mulder, Ayanda Allie, Wayne Duvenage, Celia Brümmer, Rory Steyn, and the ever-popular Nick Hudson of PANDA.Neil remains the only person ever to receive a standing ovation at a BizNews Conference. He selected this speaker line-up shortly before he passed. He’d be proud.Golf DayOn 13 March — the Friday after BNC — we host the Shift-sponsored golf day. Only 48 spots. Green fees: R250 (normally over R1,000). Carts sponsored too. Speakers including Rob Hersov, Michelle, and Wayne Duvenage will join. Partners are randomly drawn — five hours of great conversation guaranteed.That too is now on Quicket. It promises to be another memorable shootout for the David Kotze Memorial Trophy.Keep an eye on your Premium newsletter for links to our freshest content — and thanks for trusting us with your time. I’m Alec Hogg. Until tomorrow, cheerio.

The Editor's Desk - Wed 10 Dec 2025: Eskom’s smelter lifeline — and the ideology holding SA back

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