The Editor's Desk — South Africa, Iran and the question nobody can answer: what comes next?

In today’s Editor’s Desk, BizNews founder Alec Hogg unpacks the extraordinary escalation in Iran, what it says about Donald Trump’s strategy, and why South Africa’s closeness to Tehran deserves far more scrutiny. He also points to two sharp pieces — from Gideon Rachman and The Economist — that ask the same central question: what, exactly, comes next?.Don't miss out on future episodes of The Editor's Desk. Subscribe to BizNews Premium and get the podcast delivered to your inbox daily..Listen here.Edited transcript of today's Editor's Desk episode.Hello and welcome — I’m Alec Hogg. By now you’ve likely scanned the headlines on BizNews.com or caught the interviews on our channel, but the real story often lies in the margins: the context that doesn’t make the press release, and the whispers we pick up after the record button stops.Whether it’s the shifting sands of geopolitics or the political currents shaping our economy, that’s what we do here. We strip away the polish to tell you the backstory — and why it actually matters.This is The Editor’s Desk — exclusive analysis for our Premium members. Today is Monday, 2 March 2026 — and what a day it’s been.The markets are shuddering along, a little suspicious, it seems, of what may come next after the launch of a full-scale attack by Israel and the United States on Iran — primarily the United States, if you follow the major news channels. It has been spectacular and unprecedented: the killing of the Supreme Leader and 40 senior figures from his inner circle.But where does it go from here?I’ve got three sources I’d like to talk to you about today — and this is an important issue for South Africa. South Africa backed Iran’s admission to BRICS. South Africa also took part in naval exercises with Russia, China and Iran. And, on top of that, the most senior military man in South Africa — the head of the defence force — recently visited Iran, where he spoke warmly about ties between that country and ours.I picked up on all of these issues with Iraj Abedian today.Who is Iraj? He is Iranian-born and bred, but he lives in — and loves — South Africa. He came here as a young man, continued his studies, and became one of the country’s most respected economists. He is a highly intelligent, highly civilised, highly sophisticated human being — as are many Iranians. Iran, after all, is one of the oldest civilisations on Earth.It is rather strange, in a way, to see one of the younger countries, relatively speaking, attacking one of the ancients. Ancient Persia was a dominant force in the world long before Rome. That is the history in the background.Then came 1979. The Shah was overthrown and a splintered, medieval theocracy, as Iraj describes it, took control. From then on, he says, the country has effectively been held hostage.The widely repeated view — and one you hear often from Iranian dissidents — is that no more than 10% to 15% of Iranians support the regime. That is perhaps not surprising. Since 1979, Iran has had only two Supreme Leaders, and the regime has ruled with extraordinary brutality.Iraj says that, when the dust finally settles, the full scale of that brutality will be exposed to the world: mass graves, disappearances, hundreds of thousands of shattered families. These are very serious allegations.But from our perspective here in South Africa, the more immediate question is this: why are those who run our country so close to Iran?There are all kinds of theories. The ANC says the alignment is coincidental. Cynics, of course, say otherwise.You may recall that, at the BizNews Conference last year, I asked Deputy President Paul Mashatile where the ANC found the money for its 2024 election campaign. Remember, it had been effectively bankrupt. It had been sued. It could not pay its bills. And then, suddenly, it was able not only to settle those liabilities, but to mount a very substantial election campaign.Mashatile’s answer was that the turnaround came from the sale of ANC properties around the world. He said so directly. I have no independent evidence to prove or disprove that version, and no further proof has since been put before us.The cynics, however, say the real reason for the ANC’s miraculous financial recovery had nothing to do with property sales — and everything to do with cash from Iran, or more specifically from the regime in Tehran.Now, as journalists, if we don’t know something, we put both sides of the story. That is what journalism is. In the absence of evidence to the contrary, we record Mashatile’s version — and we also record the fact that many remain sceptical.What struck me in my conversation with Iraj today was how deeply frustrated he is that people who should be listening to the reality of what is happening in Iran simply are not doing so.And Iraj is no fringe voice. He was close to the ANC in the Mandela and Mbeki years. He was sought out for counsel at the highest levels. He was chief economist of Standard Bank after serving as professor of economics at UCT. He is a serious person.After the formal interview ended today, Iraj became quite emotional. He told me how much he appreciates the fact that BizNews has been willing to give this issue the attention it deserves — because, in his view, much of the South African media has simply not told the real Iran story.Even over the weekend, when the Iranian community in South Africa issued a statement welcoming the developments — a statement we published on BizNews — it received very little attention elsewhere.And you do have to ask: why?Have we become so blinkered, so bound by old ideological loyalties, that we can no longer recognise what is plainly in front of us? Have we forgotten the values that were supposed to animate South Africa after 1994? Or has expediency now taken over?That brings me to the two articles on BizNews today which open up a new avenue of inquiry.The first is from Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times. I’ve spoken about Gideon many times before. He has a South African connection, pays close attention to this country, and is one of the finest writers on international affairs anywhere in the world.His column on BizNews today carries a stark headline: “Trump has no realistic plan for Iran’s future.”That matters, because in my conversation with Iraj Abedian today, he described this as Donald Trump’s Reagan moment. His argument was that previous US presidents knew exactly what was going on in Iran, just as earlier presidents knew what was going on in the Soviet Union, but were unwilling to act. Ronald Reagan acted. His legacy is forever tied to confronting that empire.In Iraj’s telling, Trump may be trying to create that kind of legacy for himself by helping to bring down the Iranian regime.But Gideon Rachman’s point is that even if Trump has launched the war, he has no credible plan for what comes after.Rachman notes that when America invaded Afghanistan in 2001, 90% of Americans supported it. When it invaded Iraq in 2003, 70% supported it. This latest attack has the backing of only 27%.Trump, in Rachman’s telling, does not want boots on the ground. He has learned at least that much from Iraq and Afghanistan. He wants to wage an air war and somehow still deliver regime change. As Gideon puts it, he wants to have his cake and eat it.Trump says the Revolutionary Guard should surrender its weapons. But to whom? There are no boots on the ground. He says the Iranian people should take over their government. But how? Through what structure?That takes me back to Iraj’s assessment, because he says there are really three possible outcomes.The first is the optimistic one: a transitional grouping in Iran takes control from the mullahs and begins running the country on a more enlightened basis — one more fitting for a civilised nation with Iran’s history and depth.The second is that the mullahs somehow hold on.And the third — the worst of the lot — is a power vacuum.The second article I’d direct you to is from The Economist, under the headline “Why Donald Trump gambled in Iran.”Its argument is similarly sobering. Trump has gambled that an air campaign can topple the regime and produce a successor government that wants peace. But it could just as easily lead to chaos, more bloodshed, and a prolonged regional crisis.The piece also notes something important: America used to try to get other countries to do what it wanted by exporting its values, or at least pretending to. Today, that seems much less important. What matters now is the projection of American power.In other words, this is not really about values. It is about muscle.Gideon also raises another big issue — and one that matters a great deal to Gulf states like the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and even Saudi Arabia. These countries have spent years marketing themselves as safe havens: low tax, high stability, secure environments for money and people.But once missiles start flying over the region, that safe-haven status begins to evaporate.Gideon’s warning is that, until now, the Middle East has had two broad categories of states: the chaotic ones — Syria, Libya, Lebanon — and the stable, wealthy havens. The danger now is that the havens start to look more like the chaotic ones.From a South African perspective, surely it is time for us simply to stand up for South Africa — and let the rest of the world sort out the rest of the world.We do not know all the second-, third- and fourth-layer implications of what is going on. But we do know what should matter to us.And, ironically enough, what is happening now is not entirely bad for South Africa. If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, a lot more sea traffic will have to come around the Cape of Good Hope. That has to create some positive spillovers for us.Anyway, I’m going to leave it there for today. Keep an eye on your Premium newsletter — you’ll find links there to our freshest published content. And we really do have some terrific stories apart from the three I’ve highlighted here.Thanks for trusting us with your time. I’m Alec Hogg. Until tomorrow, cheerio.

The Editor's Desk — South Africa, Iran and the question nobody can answer: what comes next?

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