The Editor's Desk - Tues 13 Jan 2026: Playing with fire - Iran, MTN, and a 25% US tariff threat

Trump’s Iran tariff threat puts SA trade at risk; add MTN’s Iran exposure and a global tax grab, and the warning lights are flashing. In today’s Editor's Desk, Alec Hogg unpacks the Iran powder keg, MTN’s exposure, BRICS blind spots, and why “taxing the rich” often backfires..PS. You can book tickets for the post BNC#8 golf day sponsored by Shyft, by clicking here..Don't miss out on future episodes of The Editor's Desk. Subscribe to BizNews Premium and get the podcast delivered to your inbox daily..Listen here.Read the full transcript of The Editor's Desk podcast below.Tuesday, 13 January 2026 — lucky number 13. Hello and welcome, I’m Alec Hogg.You’ve seen the headlines on BizNews.com, watched the interviews on BizNews TV and listened on BizNews Radio. Now let’s talk about what the latest developments mean for your money. This is The Editor’s Desk — exclusive analysis for BizNews Premium members. I’m glad to have you with me.The rational mind is baffled — completely baffled. We’ve got a small country at the tail end of Africa cocking a snook at a schoolyard bully that could, if it chose, squash us under its heel. Worse than that, we’re taking the side of another kid in the playground that’s been poking the bear for years — and is now starting to feel the full wrath of the United States.In Iran, things have really gotten out of hand.The Iranian regime is deeply unpopular. Women are treated as half-people in that system. Not long ago there were riots after a woman was detained for refusing to wear a head covering — and she died in custody. It’s a grim reminder of how a highly civilised, highly cultured society has been dragged back, in the name of an “idealised” religious order, by those who are deeply orthodox.The problem is this: the regime believes it is right, the world is wrong, and the ends justify the means. Those “means” now include brutal repression of what began as peaceful protests. Tehran claims the unrest is being stirred up by Western powers — and perhaps Israel — and they’ve responded by shutting down the internet.That brings a South African company into sharp relief: MTN, the main communications provider in Iran. I don’t think it can do much about what’s unfolding there — but that won’t count for much if the protests succeed. History tells us that when regimes fall, those seen to have sided with them are often pushed out.So, if I were an MTN shareholder right now, I’d take a highly conservative view of what that Iran exposure is worth.A second angle comes via the Financial Times in London. Their Middle East editor, Andrew England — a straight shooter, high-class journalist — has been watching events closely. If you listened again to BizNews Daybreak, we carried an interview he did with the FT News Briefing host, Victoria Craig. His point was stark: there’s a communications blackout, we can’t verify the truth — but his sources suggest the death toll may be at, or beyond, a thousand people.Now remember: Donald Trump has said that if the mullahs start shooting and killing protesters, he will step in to support the protesters. That’s a powder keg.And the local angle doesn’t end with MTN.Last night, Trump took to Truth Social and announced that any country doing business with Iran will face an additional 25% tariff. For South Africa, that threatens the competitiveness of roughly R157bn worth of trade we do with the United States. We do less than R1bn with Iran — at least on disclosed figures — perhaps a bit more via oil imports, though we don’t have much refining capacity anymore. Trade experts can sharpen those numbers. The bigger point is this: the US is a vital partner, and South Africa runs a meaningful trade surplus.About R40bn a year comes into South Africa net from the US. That’s hard to replace — and the multiplier effect supports tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of jobs. So you can see the game we’re playing.My interview with Josh Meservey — from the Hudson Institute, one of Washington’s most prestigious think tanks — takes this further. He argues the ANC is unlikely to change course, because ideology is so dominant, so embedded, that it can’t see the real cost of decisions that, in my view, should be judged against one simple test: put South Africa first.Venezuela should have been warning enough for any rational mind. Yet South Africa waves the flag for Nicolás Maduro — a man Meservey describes as a mafioso-style boss, running a criminalised state. We’re staking what’s left of our reputation by effectively advocating for him internationally.It’s also widely accepted Maduro lost the last election. Early electronic reporting suggested the opposition was crushing the regime — then the flow of information stopped, and later came the announcement that the Maduro regime had “won”. On top of that, around eight million Venezuelans have left the country — in a nation of under 50 million — because when criminals run the place, the ambitious leave. Zimbabwe taught us that lesson too.Here’s what gives me hope: information is harder to suppress than ever. With the advent of artificial intelligence — where anyone, anywhere, with access to the internet can ask a question and get a sane answer — the truth becomes more difficult to bury. And the truth is the most powerful thing known to mankind. It tends to win.In the short term, though, this puts South Africa in an unhappy place.We’ve also published a strong piece from The Daily Friend making the case for leaving BRICS — argued rationally, without emotion. Will that resonate in Pretoria? No chance — at least if Meservey is right, and if the ANC’s track record is any guide.I’ll end with a parallel about “derangement” — in the Richard Tedlow book on great US entrepreneurs. Derangement doesn’t necessarily mean madness. It’s what happens when leaders become insulated from reality: surrounded by people who tell them what they want to hear, filter out bad news, and cater to every preference. If they want two sugars, they get two sugars. If they want warm milk in the holding room — as happened with Deputy President Paul Mashatile at the BizNews Conference — someone ensures there’s a microwave.People treated like that lose their grip on reality. And when they’re told credible media — or independent sources like BizNews — are “manipulated propaganda”, they believe it.Another example of policy derangement is unfolding in California. The state is proposing a 5% wealth tax on billionaires. Stop and think about it. You’re effectively telling founders like Sergey Brin and Larry Page of Google: your shares are worth, say, $100bn — we want $5bn. In practice, that means: sell assets to pay us. There’s no appreciation for the wealth created, the jobs built, and the taxes already generated — or for the basic truth that entrepreneurs drive growth, not bureaucrats.Those billionaires won’t pay it — not because they can’t, but because they don’t believe it’s fair. California has a huge budget deficit and this is the politically popular fix. The problem is: it won’t work.Now put that in a South African context. We have voices in Pretoria flirting with similar ideas — but they ignore a crucial fact. Less than 1% of South Africans — about 120,000 people, according to Treasury — pay 42% of all personal income tax. Add those earning R62,500+ a month and you’re talking roughly 350,000 people paying 55% of personal income tax. Those are the people you must keep. You must protect that tax base at all costs.I remember speaking to an African leader soon after 1994. He said: “I wish I had South Africa’s tax base. If I were you, I’d protect it at all costs.”Mozambique shows why. Around 90% of its tax revenue goes to paying public servants and servicing debt. Why? Because it doesn’t have the tax base South Africa has.These issues make or break a country. And at least California is giving us a real-time case study of what happens when ideology overrides economics.France tried a wealth tax, too — and ended up losing more in foregone revenue as wealthy taxpayers left. Today, it’s even easier to move: you don’t need to be in a physical office every day. The world has changed. Politicians — and economic policy — need to change with it.That’s a drum we’ll keep beating at BizNews: we’re here for the prosperity of our nation, not the enrichment of an elite few.I’ll leave it there for today. Keep an eye on your Premium newsletter for links to our freshest published content. Thanks for trusting us with your time. I’m Alec Hogg. Until tomorrow — cheerio.

The Editor's Desk - Tues 13 Jan 2026: Playing with fire - Iran, MTN, and a 25% US tariff threat

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