The Editor's Desk - Wed 14 Jan 2026: The truth advantage - AI, elections, and the Iran shock that could hit SA exports

AI is changing politics: exposing stolen elections, empowering voters, and puncturing propaganda. From Uganda to Iran, the cracks are widening — and South Africa’s Iran ties may soon carry a price..PS. You can book tickets for the post BNC#8 golf day sponsored by Shyft, by clicking here..Don't miss out on future episodes of The Editor's Desk. Subscribe to BizNews Premium and get the podcast delivered to your inbox daily..Listen here.Read the full transcript of The Editor's Desk podcast below.Hello and welcome — I’m Alec Hogg. You’ve seen the headlines on BizNews.com, watched and listened to the interviews on BizNews TV and BizNews Radio. Now let’s talk about what the latest developments mean for your money. This is The Editor’s Desk, exclusive analysis for BizNews Premium members. Today is Wednesday, 14 January 2026, and I’m glad to have you with me.There’s a lot of turbulence in the world right now — but I’m actually feeling uplifted, excited, and enlightened, and I’m convinced the truth still has the power to change things. Let me explain why. We’ll get to Iran in a moment, but first, let’s look closer to home — Southern Africa, SADC, and South Africa.Right now, there’s heavy campaigning in Uganda ahead of an election. The country is led by Yoweri Museveni — I’ve seen him in Davos — an 81-year-old strongman who came to power in 1986. That’s 40 years in charge. Has he “won” every election since then? He says he has. The international community rarely disputes it loudly, but plenty of people do.It reminded me of Yuval Harari’s latest book, where he reflects on democracy. In theory, democracy is free and fair elections — and if you win, you get the most votes to implement change. But you cannot govern as though the people who didn’t vote for you — the 49% who came second — don’t matter. They do. Harari argues that some parties — especially socialist parties — treat a 51% result as a license to make any rules they want. That’s not what a mandate means.In Africa, it often gets worse, because many elections are simply stolen. Here’s a familiar pattern: a liberation party wins the first post-liberation election, and people are thrilled. But after years of plundering the country’s resources, those in power don’t want to lose office — so when the public turns against them, they rig the vote.We saw extreme versions of this in Venezuela. Eight million people have left because they can’t live there anymore. Or take Zimbabwe — we know how many Zimbabweans are in South Africa. And thank you: Zimbabweans make a huge contribution here, including in hospitality. But I’m sure many would rather be building their own country back home than helping to build ours. Yet Zimbabwe’s leadership keeps “winning” elections.The problem is that other governments — especially leaders who are friends of the incumbent — often give a thumbs-up even when they know it’s nonsense.Uganda is a case in point. Museveni is facing a hugely popular challenger known as Bobi Wine — his stage name — a pop star with strong support among young voters. Uganda has a youth bulge that should favour him. But if history is anything to go by, Museveni will “win” again.Bobi Wine’s argument is blunt: the West props Museveni up. He says aid ends up in the president’s pockets, giving him resources to dispense patronage. The economy deteriorates, public services fail — the usual kleptocratic script — and yet you can’t get the man out because external support keeps the machine running. Wine’s plea is: don’t come to “help” us — just stop funding the oppressor. It’s a powerful point.So why am I upbeat? Because opposition voices are getting louder — and we’re seeing it across the region. In Mozambique, for instance, those in power have a lot to answer for. Remember the tuna bond scandal: about $2bn borrowed, massive corruption, and some Credit Suisse-linked bankers ended up in US jail. But the politicians involved? Many are still walking around, benefiting from the money.People know — or at least they suspect — but they often can’t prove it. And without proof, corrupt elites keep gaming the system. We’ve seen this in Angola too. They produce just enough plausible argument to muddy the waters.Here’s the change: artificial intelligence layered over the internet.The internet gives you information — but propagandists hire troll farms to flood the zone. Russia has done it for years. People get confused. You can watch Russia Today (RT) for fun and you’ll see how blatant it is — a mouthpiece that reminds me of the SABC under the old National Party government. If you work in media, the tells are obvious. But many people don’t have that experience — and they believe what they’re being sold.AI changes that. You can take what a talking head says and ask Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok — whichever you prefer — to test it against a wider base of information, and present both sides. That makes citizens smarter. It helps them make better decisions — and when election day comes, it improves the odds that people vote based on reality, not propaganda.I’m convinced this will increasingly matter in Southern Africa, where people have been badly abused — and where the truth has so often been buried.We’ve seen examples of things going right, too. Think of Malawi’s election rerun after court intervention — scrutiny mattered. Or Zambia, where Hakainde Hichilema (who was jailed multiple times by the previous regime) eventually won after sustained public pressure and scrutiny of the poll. When the public realises something is fundamentally wrong — and when elections are properly watched — change becomes possible.South Africa’s system is relatively robust. We have party agents: every political party has the right to have someone in each voting station, watching the count. That makes ballot-stuffing far harder than in places like Venezuela.That’s why this year’s local government election in Johannesburg is going to be interesting. It will show whether the governing faction can keep fooling the city — and I think the odds of that are pretty low. Many believe Helen Zille will win there. Why? Because people are getting smarter, and AI helps level the field.There is a catch: you need internet access.Uganda, unsurprisingly, doesn’t allow Starlink. Museveni doesn’t want an independent channel he can’t control — especially one that makes it harder to switch off the internet at will. Bobi Wine says people are smuggling Starlink terminals in from neighbouring countries — but Starlink reportedly geo-blocks units operating inside Uganda. Wine is furious, arguing that Starlink should simply allow access and stop helping the regime enforce information control.That brings us to Iran — and things there are extraordinary. It also puts South Africa in a difficult position. But again, I’m feeling optimistic — and I’ll tell you why.Iran’s regime is being exposed. Barack Obama believed engagement could moderate it over time, but Iran still imposes harsh, archaic rules — especially against women — and repression has deepened as the economy collapses.I recorded a fascinating interview today with Iraj Abedian — it will be on The Director’s Cut tonight. Iraj says a news agency obtained an internal memo — allegedly from a security department to senior government leadership — claiming that 12,000 protesters were executed between Thursday and Friday. That’s a staggering number. Public figures circulating elsewhere have been far lower — in the hundreds — and one Norway-based NGO reportedly put the figure at 6,000. If that memo is genuine, the reality is far worse.Iraj also shared a practical example: he has heard from friends and family only once in recent weeks — a brief landline call, likely monitored, just to confirm they’re alive. He says there’s also a petition signed by 4,000 Iranian doctors urgently calling for international help because hospitals are overwhelmed with gunshot victims.Iraj’s assessment is that this unrest is different from 2022 and earlier protests because it is economically driven — sparked by the bazaar traders. These are the people who traditionally fund politicians. If they’ve turned against the regime, they may be on the right side of the future.Some footage that has emerged shows massive crowds — hundreds of thousands — marching across the country. How long can this continue? We don’t know. But the regime appears to be responding with brute force — the way the Bangladesh regime did before it collapsed. You’ll remember Muhammad Yunus speaking in Davos last year about how youth protests didn’t stop, even after many were killed. One young person died, another took their place.In Iran, Iraj says the youth have decided they have no future — and they’d rather risk everything now than die slowly later. It’s an extraordinary story.Now, where does South Africa fit into this? Uncomfortably.South Africa has been confused in its allegiances. We align ourselves with regimes that don’t hold free and fair elections — with dictators and authoritarians. You wonder what Nelson Mandela would make of it.Look at Venezuela. There’s abundant evidence — even widely accepted here — that Nicolás Maduro is a criminal leader, and millions fled under his rule. Yet South Africa criticises the United States and voices support for Maduro. And we’ve been friendly with Iran too.But cracks are showing.I suggested to Iraj it might be incompetence. He rejected that. South Africa has an ambassador in Iran. Anyone living there knows what’s happening. Why isn’t our government outraged — as it has been about Venezuela, or Gaza? Instead, silence.Still, the first visible crack came yesterday after Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran. South Africa has been conducting naval exercises with China, Russia and Iran — and Iran has now reportedly been asked to withdraw from the drills. There are plenty of images of admirals shaking hands and Iranian vessels in South African ports. Maybe Iran’s withdrawal is the start of South Africa trying to edge away. It would have to be.Jonathan Katzenellenbogen has written an excellent piece in The Daily Friend, which we republished today. He notes that 16 June 2026 marks the 50th anniversary of the Soweto uprising — and suggests what’s happening in Iran is another “Soweto moment” — but with exponentially more deaths.Another crack: an announcement from Parks Tau celebrating progress on AGOA — South Africa’s access to the US market — which apparently passed in the US House of Representatives by a large margin. Tau says they wanted more than three years, but he welcomed the certainty.Yet with Trump’s Iran warning, South Africa is in a bind. If we continue doing business with Iran — or can’t credibly say we aren’t — that 25% tariff could land squarely on our exports.Trump also warned that if Iran’s regime turns its guns on its people, the Iranian people can rely on US support. Is that empty rhetoric, or is something bigger being prepared? We’ll see.What an extraordinary world we live in.Finally, I’m excited by the response to our search for the next great investment voice in South Africa. We’ve had several strong submissions already, and today we published the first — from Don Kruger — on a company that used to be called MicroStrategy.If you follow our portfolios, you’ll remember we owned it. It was a spectacular performer — it grew from around 2% of the portfolio to nearly 10%. We bought it because it was effectively a leveraged route into Bitcoin: Michael Saylor’s company held more Bitcoin than any other company, and it borrowed aggressively to buy more.But at one point the share traded at a big premium to the value of the Bitcoin on its balance sheet. If the Bitcoin was worth, say, $20bn, the company traded at $30bn — a 50% premium. That was too much risk, so we sold and rotated into a Bitcoin ETF once it became available.Bitcoin exposure remains in the Shift Portfolio at around 8% via that ETF, and it has been a fantastic performer.Now Don’s argument is: it might be time to look again. The company has rebranded — it’s now called Strategy, not MicroStrategy — and he says it’s trading at a significant discount to the value of the Bitcoin it holds, around 70% on his numbers. That’s why he believes it deserves another look.It’s been a long Editor’s Desk today — thank you for indulging me. And thank you, as always, for trusting us with your time.Keep an eye on your Premium newsletter for links to our freshest published content, including the pieces I’ve discussed in this podcast.Until tomorrow. Cheerio.

The Editor's Desk - Wed 14 Jan 2026: The truth advantage - AI, elections, and the Iran shock that could hit SA exports

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