André de Ruyter issues new warning on Eskom

Key topics:SA faces new load-shedding cliff without urgent new power stations.Nuclear, coal, and gas impractical; renewables and batteries are key.Global energy tipping point: renewables now competitive and viable..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Jan Vermeulen.Former Eskom CEO André de Ruyter has warned that South Africa is rapidly approaching another electricity cliff and will be plunged back into load-shedding unless new power stations are urgently built.De Ruyter was responding to a question at an event organised by Oxford University’s Saïd Business School, where the interviewer asked about analysts predicting the return of load-shedding by 2029.“We know, and Eskom knows, because it recently published the Medium-term System Adequacy Outlook Report, that there is an enhanced risk of load-shedding from 2029 onwards,” said De Ruyter.“We’ve got a limited window of opportunity at the moment. We are enjoying a respite from load-shedding as the retirement dates of many Eskom coal-fired power stations approach.”According to De Ruyter, it was a fortunate confluence of events that led to the decreased demand and increased supply, which ended load-shedding.“We know that the private sector has invested enormously in own generation to the tune of 6MW–7MW of rooftop capacity, which is huge,” he said.“It’s twice the size of a large coal-fired power station. That was done in the space of about 18 months.”.Read more:.Positive news for 4,000MW nuclear power project in South Africa.Additionally, several maintenance projects and other initiatives that De Ruyter said he and his colleagues started have since been completed.These projects, combined with the completion of the long-overdue coal-fired Medupi and Kusile power stations, which were still under construction during his tenure, have now been successfully commissioned.However, South Africa’s break from load-shedding will be short-lived unless it can bring a substantial amount of new generating capacity online within the next few years.“So we know there’s a cliff approaching and the only technology that is both competitive and can be deployed within this time horizon is really renewable energy and battery storage,” he said.Nuclear, coal, and gas won’t work — De Ruyter.“You can wish for 10 nuclear power stations, but we all know that nuclear takes forever to complete, 15 years, has the tendency to be extraordinarily expensive with huge cost overruns.”De Ruyter said that nuclear build programmes simply do not deliver on time in a predictable way. “I think the UK is a great example of that particular point,” he said.“The same applies to coal. I don’t think even the Chinese would finance new coal-fired power capacity in Africa. It’s still building some in China but that’s rapidly diminishing.”Regarding gas, De Ruyter noted that South Africa has no domestic gas resources. The country would have to import gas at great cost and with very little control over the price.“For those who are technically minded, gas would be imported at a landed cost of about $10 per MMBtu, which makes gas very expensive,” stated De Ruyter.“Electricity is your major input cost and a creator of competitive advantage for your economy. You can’t just increase electricity tariffs to the point where, as is happening now, the economy starts to de-industrialise.”World at a tipping point.That leaves renewable energy, which is intermittent. “It only works when the sun shines and the wind blows,” De Ruyter said.“However, battery costs have come down to the point where it’s now really possible to render renewable energy dispatchable using storage and still be competitive with conventional forms of electricity generation.”De Ruyter believes the world is at a pivotal moment for energy and energy economics. “It is the first time ever that we are in a position where we’ve got a credible zero carbon alternative on the table.”He said renewables have become competitive without relying on subsidies or carbon taxes imposed by the European Union.“So, the opportunity is there, the logic is sound, the technology is there. It’s now a question of implementation, and what we shouldn’t do is to dither and dawdle and delay. We should now do it,” he said.“I see absolutely no reason why we should wait any longer. We are seeing some significant successes in pursuing this model in California, in South Australia, and we are seeing China rapidly greening itself.”While China remains the world’s largest carbon emitter, De Ruyter said the country had turned the corner, and its emissions were decreasing..Read more:.Electricity Minister Ramokgopa says De Ruyter was a mistake.“We are at the tipping point, and what we shouldn’t do now is to try and implement energy policies that hearken back to the 1980s,” he said.“We shouldn’t pursue policies that are negative to renewables and positive for fossil as the country to our west, the United States, is doing right now.”.This article was first published by MyBroadband and is republished with permission.

André de Ruyter issues new warning on Eskom

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