MBB: Eskom flags high risk of load-shedding return by end of decade

Key topics:Eskom warns load-shedding likely if new gas plants face delays.LNG power costly, imported, and less feasible than battery storage.Green hydrogen seen as future alternative to gas and coal power..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Hanno Labuschagne.Eskom’s forecasts show a high risk of load-shedding returning near the end of the decade unless the shutdown of some coal power stations is delayed or new gas power comes online faster than expected.This possibility was recently highlighted by EE Business Intelligence managing director and energy expert Chris Yelland in an interview on the State of the Nation podcast on Monday, 2 February 2026.When asked about the probability of load-shedding returning, Yelland suggested Eskom’s own Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2026 to 2030 as the best forecast.The outlook includes various scenarios for electricity demand and supply over the next five years, accounting for changes in the energy mix and increased energy demand.It highlights that South Africa’s plan to retire 5,260MW of Eskom’s coal power by 2029 will result in a temporary supply gap.That will require Eskom to rely more on existing open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) until 2030, when it plans to bring another 6,000MW of combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) online.Whereas OCGTs are powered by diesel, CCGTs use liquefied natural gas (LNG), which the current Integrated Resource Plan envisions as a key transitional peaking power source.Eskom warned that there was a high risk that the construction of the CCGT power stations would be delayed. The power utility also has a poor track record for meeting power station construction deadlines..Read more:.Mbeki accuses Eskom of deliberately engineering load-shedding crisis.It took about 18 years to construct its two newest power stations — Kusile and Medupi — well over double the time they were initially supposed to take.“Unless those gas-to-power plants come on stream according to plan in 2030, we will have load-shedding,” Yelland said. “The report concludes the probability of that power coming online is very low.”Yelland has also highlighted several significant issues with LNG, including high and volatile costs, as well as its environmental impact.LNG produces less harmful pollution — including about 32% less carbon emissions — than coal. However, it consists primarily of methane, which is a major greenhouse gas.Questions about gas power feasibility in South Africa.The bigger problem is that South Africa also has no large-scale LNG production and would have to import all of the resource from overseas.Strong resistance from environmental advocacy groups has thus far blocked energy companies from exploring for oil and gas in South Africa.It would take years to construct LNG extraction facilities for power stations with 6,000MW output, even after clearing environmental hurdles and surveys confirm sufficient reserves for economic feasibility.It would be safe to assume that getting LNG from its source to a power station in South Africa will require numerous steps, including:Extracting the gas overseasPiping to the liquefaction plant overseasTransporting liquefied gas via ship to South AfricaUnloading to a liquid storage facility in South AfricaConverting liquid back to gasPiping, compressing, and pumping gas to a power plantConsidering its high cost, Yelland said gas power might have a place as a form of peaking power, like OCGTs, rather than a baseload replacement for coal..Read more:.Eskom tops SOE payrolls with R1 million average employee cost.However, it is also facing increased competition from battery energy storage systems (BESS) in terms of its ability to meet peak demand.The prices of the most common type of batteries used in BESS — lithium-ion batteries — have plummeted by over 90% in the last decade.Hybrid systems combining batteries with renewable power sources, such as wind and solar, can deliver a lower levelised cost of energy than gas and coal in South Africa.In the longer term, potentially over the next two or three decades, Yelland also believes that green hydrogen will replace natural gas in applications where batteries are not suitable.Green hydrogen can be produced as a byproduct of renewable power, which would make it readily available locally once the technology has matured..This article was first published by MyBroadband and is republished with permission

MBB: Eskom flags high risk of load-shedding return by end of decade

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