Elon Musk vs. Jeff Bezos: The modern space race heats up

In a pivotal moment five years ago, Jeff Bezos unveiled Blue Moon, a spacecraft destined for the moon's surface. However, it was a prop, revealing Blue Origin's yet-to-be-realized lunar aspirations. Contrastingly, Elon Musk's SpaceX swiftly progressed, with successful tests of the Starship rocket prototype. The modern space race mirrors the past, with Bezos' Blue Origin and Musk's SpaceX vying for lunar dominance. Their strategies differ, but only time will tell the victor..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..By Loren Grush.Five years ago, Jeff Bezos stood on a darkened stage in Washington, DC, a large black curtain covering a platform behind him. Clad in a gray suit and black shirt, he expounded the virtues of exploring the moon to a crowd of journalists and space enthusiasts. "It's nearby. It's three days away," Bezos said. "You can go to the moon just about anytime you want." .___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Moments later Bezos raised his hand, and the curtain swept away to unveil a massive spacecraft called Blue Moon. It was a lunar lander that his aerospace company had been working on for three years, he said, designed to take cargo—and eventually people—to the moon's surface..What he didn't mention is that the lander was a prop constructed for the event. Blue Origin had—and still has—years to go before it can deliver a functioning vehicle..A more visceral moment in the new space race happened two-and-a-half months later and 1,700 miles away. Elon Musk was watching on live monitors as a steel mini rocket, shaped like a grain solo, fired up its engine in the mud flats of southern Texas. Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s prototype flew up into the air for a few brief moments and then lowered itself back down again, standing upright. This was one of the first so-called hop tests for what would become SpaceX's forthcoming Starship rocket, meant to demonstrate the technique a full-size spacecraft would use someday to land on other worlds—including the moon..It's been more than a half-century since a human being left a footprint in lunar dust. Today's space race looks in some ways like that of the 1960s; instead of the US vs. the Soviet Union, it's Bezos' Blue Origin vs. Musk's SpaceX. The companies are dueling to put astronauts back on the moon's surface, funded largely by the US government..Read more: 🔒 Premium from the FT – Isaacson and Musk: World's best biographer on world's best entrepreneur.Blue Origin and SpaceX were both founded at the turn of the century by technology moguls. That's about where the similarities end. SpaceX quickly surpassed Blue Origin by rapidly testing and launching with little concern about things blowing up during development, as they occasionally do. SpaceX has a big lead over Blue Origin in the lunar competition. Still, given that mission's complexity, it's possible that Blue Origin will land something—probably not with people on it—before SpaceX does. Blue Origin declined to comment, and SpaceX didn't respond to requests for comment..Musk runs his aerospace operation like a typical for-profit enterprise, using money from clients—including the government—that want to hitch equipment to its rockets as a way to fund product development. Bezos has, at least until recently, treated Blue Origin more like a research laboratory. Which strategy will win this moon race should become clear over the next few years.."SpaceX has sold things, and Blue Origin has spent money," says Carissa Christensen, founder and chief executive officer of BryceTech, a space research and analysis consultant. "SpaceX's company culture has been about taking over market after market, finding customer after customer. Blue Origin's culture has been about executing on a very demanding R&D strategy.".Video screenshot of a SpaceX Starship prototypes test flight in Texas in 2019. Source: SpaceX.The mission to put people back on the moon started in 2017 with a NASA program that would become known as Artemis. NASA initially gave a single $2.9 billion contract for a lunar lander to SpaceX, in part because the agency had only enough money for one, which prompted a lawsuit from Blue Origin. After some lobbying in Congress, the agency received enough funding for a second contract worth $3.4 billion, which went to Blue Origin. The money is for development; the companies get to keep what they build. "We're buying the service," says Kent Chojnacki, deputy manager of NASA's human landing system program. "So we never take ownership of the hardware.".Musk's long-term goal for SpaceX is Mars, which is evident from the fuel source used by Starship. Whereas Blue Origin's lunar lander uses hydrogen, which could theoretically be mined from moon water someday, Starship uses methane, a molecule that could be synthesized on Mars, where Musk has said he'd like to end his life (though not on impact)..Still, Musk acknowledged the merits of going to the moon as NASA was laying the groundwork for its mission. "If you want to get the public fired up, you've got to put a base on the moon," he said in 2017..Read more: 🔒 Premium: Congratulations Elon! You Won! – Time for Zuck and Musk to grow up and move on.Each company's task is to create a spacecraft that can park itself in orbit around the moon and await the arrival of NASA astronauts from a second craft or a space station nearby. The astronauts would transfer to the company's vehicle, which would then carry the crew down to the moon's surface. After a while, they'd load back into the lander and into lunar orbit..For Musk, the contract presented an excuse to accelerate work on his future Mars shuttle called Starship. It's the largest, most powerful rocket system ever developed, with a top portion serving as a lunar vessel that can land upright and take off again. SpaceX's plan is to conduct an uncrewed test landing on the moon as early as next year and then a first human landing in 2026, though Musk and NASA habitually miss deadlines..Read more: 🔒 Elon Musk becomes first person ever to lose $200 billion.A major complicating factor is an unproven refueling system that requires launching multiple Starships. Escaping Earth's gravity requires a lot of energy, and the fuel cost increases for heavier objects. A rocket the size of Starship can't make it to the moon and back on a single tank filled up on Earth. SpaceX's system calls for the launch of one Starship into Earth's orbit, where it will park and serve as a fueling depot. Then SpaceX will launch about 10 additional Starships filled with methane and oxygen that will dock with the depot to refill its reserves. Once the depot is fully topped off, yet another Starship will launch from Earth, dock with the depot, refuel and then head to the moon..Blue Origin mocked this plan a few years ago with an infographic arguing that the multi-rocket refueling architecture was too complicated to be reliable. Blue Origin has since quietly changed course and adopted a system similar to SpaceX's for its moon missions, says Chojnacki. "They've come to similar architecture decisions on the number of launches and fills that they need," he says. Blue Origin's technique will require anywhere from four to eight rocket mules to refuel a spacecraft in low-Earth orbit, says Lisa Watson-Morgan, manager of NASA's human landing system program. Blue Origin calls its refueling station a "space tug" because after topping off the lander orbiting Earth, the tug will follow the lander into the moon's orbit, ready to refuel it for its trip to the lunar surface. The tug can then travel back and forth between each orbit to retrieve more hydrogen fuel..As early as next year, Blue Origin plans to send to the moon a cargo version of its lander that doesn't require a tug. If this succeeds, Bezos' company could conceivably beat Musk's, though Blue Origin maintains a less ambitious timeline to send people there by 2029..Schedules are unpredictable in aerospace, though. Blue Origin's lunar lander is designed to launch on top of its New Glenn rocket, which was supposed to first lift off in 2020 but has yet to do so. New Glenn is currently due to launch in September, if all goes well. "Blue Origin needs to be much faster," Bezos said on the Lex Fridman Podcast in December, "and it's one of the reasons that I left my role as the CEO of Amazon a couple of years ago.".Musk, meanwhile, remains CEO of a bunch of companies, including SpaceX, which continues to lead the aerospace industry. During its most recent Starship test flight in March, SpaceX transferred propellants from one tank to another, a small but meaningful step. A NASA advisory committee said on April 26 that while SpaceX was still analyzing the results, the experiment "was successful by all accounts.".Read also:.Elon Musk's Brazil battle: Defying courts and stirring political stormsBlack market boom: Elon Musk's Starlink is getting into the wrong handsElon Musk's great escape: SA's loss, USA's gain – Andrew Kenny.© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Elon Musk vs. Jeff Bezos: The modern space race heats up

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