BNC#8 Dawie Roodt Q&A: SA is falling behind - The hard truth about growth, taxes and the economy

South Africa stands at a crossroads: lagging growth, rising pressure on taxpayers, and a state stretched to its limits. This sharp discussion contrasts the US, Europe, and emerging markets, arguing that real progress lies in empowering the private sector, cutting red tape, and restoring confidence. From unemployment realities to global risks and policy failures, it’s a candid look at what’s holding the country back - and the bold, practical shifts needed to unlock growth and secure a more resilient economic future..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the Q&A.Alec Hogg (00:20:18 - 00:55:39)I'm confused. So we've got the United States of America growing at three and a half to 4% GDP. The United States of America's economy is 77 times the size of South Africa's. South Africa was, we thought, going to grow to half of that, right? Actually under half of that. Right. But we know better. Surely, surely, if somebody is doing better than you and they much bigger than you, you should be clicking to or trying to replicate what they're doing.(00:55:43 - 01:17:41)And what is it that they doing? That could be a very quick win for us, because we need that 4% class and we can get to that 4% class. Dawie RoodtI mean, they are just do the right thing and we can get this economy to grow. Well, the Americans do many things different and a very good example of what Americans do different from, say, compared to the Europeans, for example, is the way that they treat money.(01:17:45 - 01:39:30)And this is the topic. Don't let me start talking about this. I'm never going to end. But the Europeans are. They, for example, are going to create the central bank digital currency, which will become effective in 2029. And that means a lot of control. So the Europeans approach the ideology of the Europeans, control everything, tax everything, put rules or regulations on everything.(01:39:34 - 01:58:18)And they end there while the Americans say, listen, we're not going to go to central bank digital currency route. We're going to go to stable coin route, which is give far more, freedom to the private sector. But that's just one example. And the result of that is that the American productivity growth is more than double that of the Europeans.(01:58:22 - 02:18:43)So that's the answer. Leave it to the private sector to do stuff. And in a weird way, that is what's happening in South Africa, because the same ANC that wants to centralise everything, control everything. And because of this, the mismanagement and the corruption and the incompetence, they destroying this stuff. And guess what? The private sector is picking up the pieces.(02:19:04 - 02:39:14)And that is part of the bright future of South Africa, which yesterday gave us a compelling argument for state proofing. Alec HoggPiet, it was very, very it was a strong argument for state proofing. I don't know if you absorb much of that or if you actually agree with, that, that that's what we should be doing, state proofing ourselves.Dawie Roodt 02:39:18 - 03:05:32No, I didn't listen to pick it up a little bit, like I didn't listen to that. But. So help me up and I'll see if I can. Alec HoggWell, should we should we take responsibility for ourselves, for our education, for, security, for, local areas? I think one of the people today said we should have a whole lot of little Oranias, which sounded a little bit hectic, but we have that actually already.Dawie Roodt (03:05:32 - 03:24:02)If you go back to the whole thing, that's what we have. All these security states where I live, for example, in Pretoria, we've got I've got the only electricity, we've got own boil water, we've got our own security lights. So what do I need to state I don't need last year I could you no good unions, by the way.(03:24:06 - 03:45:00)I've got all of that. So in a way that is exactly what we are doing. But there's something else that I think is more important is that if you look at the nature of economic activity today, it's not part of the that's what I spoke about when I said that, about the farmers, the farmers, they do it. They didn't talk about farms, they didn't talk about tractors and things.(03:45:04 - 04:07:11)They spoke about technology. They spoke about artificial intelligence, the genetic engineering of precision falling. That's the stuff that they were talking about. And that's all those things are service orientated, the stuff that's happening in the cloud. And that's one way of getting that's creating a state proof organisation. You do not need to belong to South Africa to belong to Orania or anything.(04:07:13 - 04:30:21)You can join the Flat Earth Society if you want to, and you can even use the currency in the cloud. That's one way of state proofing yourself. Alec HoggSo are the Cape exit people smoking their socks ?Dawie RoodtThey are. It's not a very clever idea for a number of reasons. It's always better to be part of a bigger thing. In fact, I would like to see South Africa being integrated more, much more with the rest of Africa.(04:30:21 - 04:50:36)There are so many a wonderful opportunities in Africa that in Africa and we can all work together. And but but I certainly do believe that the power should move down closer to the people. And in a weird way, that is actually what Karl Marx also said. By the way, the word Soviet in the Soviet Union is local authority.04:50:36 - 05:12:38That's what it means. And that's the Soviet Union means power to the people as close as possible to the people. And in a weird way, I agree with Karl Marx on that. Alec Hoggyou've really confused me. So duh. At the moment is a very small number of taxpayers who are paying for a very large number of non taxpayers in South Africa.05:12:42 - 05:30:34Now you say we must be part of the whole of Africa so we can pay for more. Dawie RoodtNo no no no no, that's certainly not what I'm saying. No, what am I, what I'm saying is that let's run our own affairs here but let's allow everybody to try to if they want to all over the place that that's what I mean.Alec Hogg 05:30:43 - 05:48:21Okay. No thank you. Just to just double check it on that.Dawie RoodtSo various ways of calculating this. Remember you put money into the system and you get something out of the system. And what we do as in and that's why I perhaps disagree a little bit with Nick.05:48:25 - 06:14:23But there's this huge pressure on the fiscal accounts. Nobody wants to pay, but everybody wants to get. So this is a natural phenomenon and that the states tend to get bigger and bigger and bigger, because that's what we demand people. I don't want to pay. So the state go and they borrow more money. And in the process, debt levels keep on going up until the system collapse, until there's some financial crisis or a war or whatever the case may be, or somebody like Xavier Millay, for example, they really fix this.06:14:29 - 06:30:40So that's what happens. So the reality is you pay some money into the system and you get some effusively some services. You get some something. But now year, depending on who you are, the higher income, the more you pay and the less you get and the lower the opposite, the less you pay, the more getting. But this is a rough number.06:30:45 - 07:01:05Rough calculation for somebody that for a family earning about 2 million rand per year for everyone rand, they pay tax with the assumption that one rand goes in and one then comes out in the other side, which of course is not the case. But let's assume that. So for every one rand they pay tax, they get back approximately $0.05 in the form of goods and services, which means that family carries 20 families for education, health services, policing it, do all these sort of things.07:01:14 - 07:22:02This dramatically added disability. Alec Hogg Is there any indication of where the breaking point is, where that family sees that no too much. Dawie RoodtWe passed that breaking point already, and that is because I mentioned the lavaca. If we passed that already, there's no way the Minister of Finance can increase taxes anymore. And and the really unfortunate part, of course, we have to all pay our fair share.07:22:05 - 07:38:34But but what is a fair shake? So what he does, what he has been doing, he's been giving Souths more money. He's giving more money to getting more aggressive and effectively. What happens is take money out of the pockets of the productive side of the economy and give it to and put it up the side of the economy.Alec Hogg (07:38:38 - 07:58:16)What did you think of the US ambassador's address here? Dawie RoodtAnd again, I didn't listen to him this morning. It was over yesterday morning. I was a little bit late. But what I've heard is that the can I say this a little bit like mini me? Is that okay?07:58:20 - 08:22:38Okay. Meaning?Dawie RoodtNow he's very much like President Donald Trump. That's what I mean. Alec HoggGood or bad, in a way. Good or bad. Dawie RoodtIs Donald Trump a good Donald Trump? That's your question. Is Donald Trump good or bad? I listen sometimes. I listen to Donald Trump. And I know they are some fanatic Trump supporters here, so I'm going to get into trouble.08:22:38 - 08:41:14You know, I listen to Donald Trump sometimes and it's actually quite a good speaker, I think. And sometimes I listen to him. I think this is the most, most amazing, incredible, clever guy I've ever listened to. And sometimes I listen to him and I said, oh, my goodness, can anybody say it's because he he made a big mistakes quite often as well.08:41:14 - 09:01:41And I can give you some examples I use instead of thinking for example that is just wrong. I've got questions about Iran. I'm not so sure about that. And there's so the good thing about Donald Trump, I think, is that the world was moving in the wrong direction. It may be some changes that we are currently seeing would have happened.09:01:41 - 09:20:19In any event, he was just the catalyst. A catalyst is that, to getting into maybe that's a good thing. So so perhaps it is a good thing in total looking before Trump and after Trump, I think we in a slightly better world. Yes, I would say that. But there was a lot of mistakes made on the way as well.09:20:23 - 09:38:32Maybe just something that that this war in Iran that stood out for me. And I think somebody mentioned this, South Africa belongs to a group of countries called the BRICS countries. And it's good for us to believe we belong to the BRICS countries, because now we can use it to to improve our trade relations and capital. We can borrow money from the BRICS bank and stuff like that.09:38:36 - 10:02:10So there are some good things about this. But looking at the war on Iran, what just happened, it is very clear that the BRICS countries are a toothless monster because it's not a unified political force. They were talking about getting rid of use dollar reserve currencies. It's bullshit. They're not going to do that. The BRICS countries. So I clear that is very clear.Alec Hogg 10:02:14 - 10:25:22Anthony Ginsburg said something very interesting. He said South Africa should be taking its model from India. Dawie RoodtYes. Very much. I think South Africa should take a model from India. And again, if you look at the big economies, the Chinese economy, and if there are questions about these economies, I will try to answer that. The Chinese economy. Let me just explain what has happened, because some people mentioned the few things about they are exporting record amounts of money.10:25:22 - 10:50:39They are doing very well. They production, they are the overproduction capacity that's got deflationary problems and they're actually accumulating a lot of dollars. Now at the moment, that is what happened to the Chinese. Their business model was a production model. Up to now. They trying to move that into a consumption model in a case of they, the Indians, they are a little bit closer to to the west, to the west and they more service orientated.10:50:48 - 11:10:23And they've got this Narendra modi just way entered into this. Another good thing about Trump. He got Narendra modi and the Europeans to a settle this free trade agreement between them and Narendra modi is also very close to the Israelis now as well. And I think of all the big economies the Indian economy is going to be the economy is going to take the world forward.11:10:29 - 11:32:12They are growing at the rate of 8 and 9%.Alec HoggBecause they putting India first. Dawie RoodtThey put India first, certainly. Yes. Alec HoggI just help me out with this one. The fact that South Africa seems put China first and that China is spending 4% of its GDP subsidising its industries. In fact, that's what the IMF says. Dawie RoodtIn fact, it is a little bit higher.11:32:12 - 11:58:47That is true. They are subsidised. But look at this. Look at it this way. If my neighbor every week, it will chuck a lot of groceries over my over the fence. That's a good thing for me is not?Alec HoggWell, as long as you're not trying to produce wine as well. Dawie RoodtYeah. But in the meantime.. Alec HoggBecause there's no more wine for you. Its gone. Dawie RoodtThe question, Alec, and this is the mistake that you're making now, there are many groupings in any country.11:58:47 - 12:20:45You've got workers. We got entrepreneurs. You call manufacturers eco politicians, you call trade unions or whatever, and have all of those groupings. Which one is the most important one? I can tell you what the consumer, it is always about the consumer. It is not about industry. It is not about this in that it is always about the consumer.12:21:01 - 12:52:00And if the consumer can can benefit from low, cheap Chinese electric cars, so be it. It's good for me. The car industry in South Africa has been getting subsidies for decades and they still cannot compete internationally. Why must I keep on subsidising them? Alec HoggGood point. And, I'm sure the there are people reassessing that right now because they're not going to be able to compete with the Chinese here or internationally the way things are going.Alec Hogg (12:52:04 - 13:26:23)Dawie, let's, go into the questions. Louis Moody's question is your comparison of small and large farms refers the problems are inflation, migration to the city.The question is, do you believe this trend can be reversed? In other words, the plotline becomes poor, loss of schools, etc. and if so, how? Dawie RoodtYou know, I don't understand whether it is the person asking the question is in favor of, of of urbanization or against that.13:26:23 - 13:42:06But realistically, what is going to happen? Alec HoggI think he's against it, against that. Dawie RoodtIt sounds like it. What is happening in the world, all over the world, people do not want to live in rural areas. People do not want to stay. There is somewhere. Why people all we all we all do. We want to stay in the cities.13:42:06 - 14:02:33And in the case of South Africa, we are approximately 60% urbanized. It doesn't make sense to build a road that a hundred people is going to use. We can build the same road that 10,000 people is going to use. We have to encourage people to move to the cities. We have to build the necessary infrastructure to be for people to be able to live in the cities and to work in the cities as well.14:02:44 - 14:23:04Why do you have why do you have these small farmers, these small farmers that are simply uncompetitive? There's no way they can compete with the big farmers. Those farms should all be consolidated into bigger farms and given to do that into the hands of the corporates, the real agricultural cooperatives. To run it properly, we have to encourage, people moving to this.Alec Hogg (14:23:08 - 14:44:44)Okay, Luca. Luca, Botha says, what salary would you suggest for a chairman of a company like Eskom? How else would you attract appropriate talent? One could make the point that the 13 million rand salary for the CEO was well earned, with the reduction of loadshedding, that was costing the country a lot more. Dawie RoodtNow, do you think there was a reduction in loadshedding?14:44:44 - 15:10:16I just gave you the numbers that subsector in economy, in the economy, electricity, gas and water contracted by 4.3% in real terms. That's the price that you paid for Eskom. You want to still pay him 13 million rand. Alec HoggBut my my lights go on. You know. And they didn't go until years ago. That's what we as consumers. Yes.Dawie Roodt (15:10:16 - 15:22:19)Yes. And they're going to increase prices by nine and 9% this year, probably up to 12%. And that means that your salary must go up by 2% in order to get inflation down to 3%.Alec Hogg (15:22:23 - 15:24:07)Let's go to Sandys one here15:24:07 - 15:28:14Given the lack of jobs in South Africa.15:28:18 - 15:50:41What is the harm of promoting subsistence farming so people can provide at least something for themselves and their community, and hopefully provide alternatives to cheap, shitty food? Dawie RoodtOkay, no that's valid. The reason why we have subsistence farmers, the reason we have people sitting on the pavement selling tomatoes, is because they haven't got a choice. That's all that is left.15:50:45 - 16:11:28We have the, the, the the, the absorption rate of labor in South Africa is 40%. That is a number that we have to look at. So if people that can work, 40% of them work 20% for people, like, for example, housewives and students and so on, and 40% more than it is actually out of the out of work in South Africa.16:11:28 - 16:35:14So we have 40% unemployment. And that's where you get the subsistence farmers and people setting repayment and so on. Selling, tomatoes and so on. We don't want them. They we want them to be part of the corporate environment. I'm going to ask them, put that put that advertisement in. So yeah, consider advertising it. Go around, say you want to employ you want to employ 10,000 people and you're going to pay them R10 000 per month.16:35:18 - 16:42:21You're going to get the 100, 200,000 applications for that. That's people work die because they haven't got a choice. That's why.16:42:25 - 17:03:03Last year, argued that South Africa's true unemployment rate is closer to 10%, not the official city. Said I know about, citing massive undercounting on the, on the informal sector. Can Dawie weigh in on this topic and also the taxable opportunity of the informal sector.Dawie Roodt (17:03:07 - 17:19:07)Yes. Well, the informal sector is also taxed by way of indirect taxes, like for example, sin taxes and the value added tax and a few levy and stuff like that. So they, they're also part of the tax and it's not fully I mean, they, they don't pay income taxes for example. But Harry is right. But he's wrong as well.17:19:11 - 17:41:14He's right in the sense that people do not die of anger, or in fact, some people do die of hunger. But we don't see people dying of hunger despite the very high levels of unemployment. That simply means that they are keeping busy somewhere and there are many economic activities. Others just not captured in official data. One important one is people renting out back the, room back rooms, for example.17:41:26 - 18:06:38So he's right in that sense, but he's wrong in the sense of the, the, the methodology that it's used to calculate what is called unemployment. The world Bank and in, in these international financial organisations, they decide on a specific technique, and a specific methodology to calculate unemployment and stats. South Africa is doing it exactly that way. And based on that, you can argue that he's wrong.18:06:42 - 18:31:03And maybe we can change that. But based on the accepted methodology and definitions, we do have the official unemployment data as.Alec HoggHow old is your your business? Dawie RoodtMy business is a nearly 25 years old. Alec HoggAnd how many times have you been in the CCMA unfairly? Dawie RoodtWe pay our people well.18:31:07 - 18:53:02Now, there has been a couple of times when we were in the CCMA. That is one issue that we have. Alec HoggBut that's my point. If you as an employer, that is employ someone, just know you in, you know and everybody sitting. Yeah knows there's no incentive to employ someone permanently in South Africa because you get you get nailed enough times, you just stop doing it.Dawie Roodt (18:53:06 - 19:15:07)Yeah that is very true. But let me tell you, and we've got we've got about 600 people or so working for us. But what I absolutely hate is all these other compliance nonsense that we have to follow, like we in the financial services industry. That means that if if anybody gives me 20,000 rental deposit, I have to go and contact them, call the compliance people and do all sorts of things. If i suspect19:15:07 - 19:38:37Somebody is involved in whatever I have to call the compliance people and report people and stuff, and you have to fill in forms. And that's not only that. You also have to fill in forms regarding about the race, all this race in that race in this position. But that is that is the kind of stuff that really kills a business this amazing, this all this horrible red tape that we have to comply with every year.Alec Hogg (19:38:41 - 20:10:06)If the debt of state owned enterprises were to be consolidated with government debt.Dawie RoodtThen the debt to GDP ratio will go up by another trillion rand, up to 90%, 90%. Alec HoggThat was from Sydney place. I know. Okay. How do you assess the spillover risk to South Africa's economy? If the US power drifts from limited conflicts into prolonged medium scale wars, particularly in terms of energy prices, global capital flows, etc.?20:10:10 - 20:42:40In two scenarios, Iran's war continues for longer than the 4/5 weeks that Trump thinks it's going to be, and Rob Hersov's theses that the US's Abraham Lincoln is going to wind its way down to Simon Town. Dawie RoodtTo South Africa. Yeah, yeah. If it all goes on for rights, then the impact is still it's already there. The shock is already there to the South Africa and to the global economy.020:42:40 - 20:58:34We're going to pay a price for that. It's not necessarily the level of the world price, but it is how long the oil price is going to remain elevated. That is actually more important because the longer it stays out, the more it becomes part of the fabric of the economy, and the more difficult it's going to be to get that out of the inflation, to get inflation lower.20:58:41 - 21:18:48So I'm more concerned and not about this huge volatility. It's bad in the short term but is high levels at subsistence of levels. It stays on for a long time that I'm more concerned about. I think the oil price the oil price should be below $70. It is currently I don't know where it is at the moment because it's so very volatile, but it's around 80, $90 somewhere there.21:19:07 - 21:39:34And hopefully we will see an end to this conflict. And I think we will see into this conflict relatively soon. Yeah. Alec HoggWhy do you think that? Dawie RoodtBecause I think Donald Trump, that's what the that's how he is. I mean, he wants to make a quick buck and move on to the next flower. That's what he does. Alec HoggBut that's maybe not what Iran wants.Dawie Roodt (21:39:34 - 22:01:37)Now. That's not what Israel wants. Certainly not Iran. Pretend not to want that. But they did. I mean, they gone, they destroyed. Alec HoggBut do they care? Dawie RoodtWell, we'll find out more tomorrow from there Irhaj. But your question about Simon Town remember, about 20% of this total date of the Minister of Finance is held by foreign investors.22:01:41 - 22:20:04That's mostly Europeans and a bunch of Americans. As well. Now, the reserve Bank, the South African Reserve Bank, already indicated about two years or so ago that they're concerned about the South African banks holding too much government debt on their balance sheet. Now, I just want to make the point that banks in South Africa are very healthy, very well regulated.22:20:04 - 22:43:29There's nothing, no reason to be concerned about the banks in South Africa. But still the reserve Bank says, but listen, you guys, you're holding too much government debt on your balance sheet. I don't like that very much. Just watch that. Now imagine a situation where the Americans say, listen, the Americans are not allowed to both buy our bonds anymore, and they start selling our bonds, forcing the local banks to buy that, for example, or not even forcing the banks, but forcing somebody else to buy that.22:43:38 - 23:06:25And the yields go up and something the banks balance sheets under pressure. And again, the banks are not. And that can lead to a serious financial crisis, not because of the banks, but because of very high debt levels of the state. Alec Hogg1985 ,just explain to to to our colleagues, some of them the younger, what happened in 1985 with a debt.Dawie RoodtBasically that we had to repay debt.23:06:25 - 23:27:43We didn't have the money to repay the debt. They started stopping buying our bonds, for example, and the banks started getting into trouble. Nedbank specifically, was one of those banks that really could potentially have pulled over.Alec HoggAnd interest rates went to low interest rates. 2021, 25%. Yeah, it was a guy called Frank Shostak. You remember Frank Shostak from econometrics?23:27:43 - 23:48:01I used to interview all these guys , and he had his models and his models said, you ain't you've been to your 40th budget. Don't tell me that these models said interest rates would go to 25%. And he looked crazy. Then we had the debt standstill. Interest rates went to 25%, and there was massive disaster in South Africa's economy.23:48:01 - 24:05:29Can happen again? That's my question. Dawie RoodtIt can certainly. But more importantly, you talk you talk about the prime rate. I think it was we went to 25% then. But there's another interest rate. Is far more important. And that's a bond yields the capital market interest rates. And the reserve Bank has got very little control over that.24:05:36 - 24:31:10The reserve Bank can adjust short term interest rates up and down, but not the bond yields. That's the capital market. And everybody is scared of the capital market. Believe me, Alec HoggEven our government?Dawie RoodtThey will become scared. Even Donald Trump is scared of the capital market. Alec HoggSo they don't need to send a aircraft carrier to South Africa. All that it all Trump needs to do is say Americans can no longer own South African bonds.Dawie Rood 24:31:13 - 24:54:30Yeah. And then and also if you ever go to speak to Blackrock or any of the European asset managers to say, listen, you buy American bonds, you're not allowed to buy our bonds anymore. For example, Alec Hoggit's quite simple. Is it possible that he would do that? Dawie RoodtI guess it is. Anything, anything is possible with Donald Trump. I was exploring something a little earlier with Nick Houtson.24:54:34 - 25:19:13Is it possible that with the men in the White House now, if he gets that angry that he could force American companies to leave South Africa? In other words, like the disinvestment that we saw in the 80s. And what would the consequence of that be? Dawie RoodtFull, full, full, real sanctions, full complete total. So trade sanctions and financial services, that's what you're talking about.25:19:17 - 25:50:40And I guess investments also. Yoh will that will be that will be very bad, remember? Alec HoggWhat's what's very bad. Dawie RoodtLet me give you a number on remember, the South African economy expanded at the rate of 1.1% last year. If we completely off AGOA well, for example, and we do not get the benefits of AGOA, it's probably going to shave off .1. 2% off of economic growth, which is not a big deal, really, but it is a big deal when you grow at 1.1. 1%.25:50:44 - 26:24:14If you're growing at 3.5%, 27.2%, it doesn't matter. So that is the issue. It's not necessarily the number that matters, but the real. But the fact that we are not growing economically, everything adds up. And even a small reduction in economic growth is in fact a big deal. Alec HoggDavi about 5% of eligible voters voted for the f 5% of eligible voters, according to the figures that we know of who votes than they should have, who were registered and they could have votes and so on.26:24:18 - 26:55:17Now, the EFF leader has said that the US ambassador must be expelled because what he said here yesterday, if that were to happen and they were a reaction of the type that we talking about now, how many people would it affect in South Africa. Just give us that. You said very bad. What's very bad? Dawie RoodtYoh, many. And again I think the, the, the context is very important here is that we've been getting poorer.26:55:19 - 27:15:40Let me just give you a number South Africa the last couple of be there are two ways of measuring how we are doing. You can measure it against ourselves. And I can tell you we all the way we were 20 years ago in terms of per capita GDP. Or we can measure us against other people, other countries, and just about in all cases, other countries are catching up with us and overtaking us.27:15:43 - 27:36:21The Indians oppose us. They were much poorer than us until recently. The Chinese are..Alec HoggThats per capita. Dawie RoodtThat's per capita GDP of a dollar. Purchasing power parity. The Mauritian surpasses many other countries, even some of the smaller countries. Even Botswana is pass us by the way, poor countries that are doing better. And in South Africa we've seen an increase in absolute poverty.27:36:30 - 27:56:20And in South Africa we seeing really kids dying of hunger. That is really what's happening. If you see if we bring this economic growth down further and you just keep it where it is, we will see an increase in poverty further and an increase of all these other things. Now imagine what's going to happen if you force this economy in minus two, minus three and -4%.27:56:24 - 28:24:08Just imagine what's going to happen. It will be chaos. It will be a disaster. Alec HoggBut the my thesis was not my thesis, but my Machiavellian kind of approach was they might be people who want this to happen because they could pick up those American companies on the cheap through a disinvestment wave, in the same way as many people got very rich in the 80s when the Americans lived.Dawie Roodt 28:24:12 - 28:43:32You sound a little bit like Nick. Alec HoggNo, no, no, no, no, I'm just I'm just giving a scenario to you. And I'm asking you to educate the politicians with a fire that they're playing with. Dawie RoodtLet us understand. And we must understand this. It is not a matter of taking over or nationalising a company, and it's yours. And you're going to keep on.28:43:32 - 29:06:24It's business as usual. That's the very special skills of very, very skills. And people running international companies. Multinational companies are very special people. You can't just take them out and think, put somebody else in the thing you're going to. It will be business as usual. That is not what's gonna happen. The Americans are the Europeans of finding that out because they have nationalised.29:06:28 - 29:26:35The Russians are finding this out. They've nationalized a lot of, recent companies, and many of those companies are run into the ground because they haven't got the skills to know how to do that. Alec HoggOkay. Let's hope that message has actually landed where it needs to. Simon has asked, or, Simon, what policies would you introduce if you were finance minister?Dawie Rood (29:26:39 - 29:35:04)Not. That's not good enough. You must make me a dictator at least. I mean.29:35:08 - 29:53:33Okay. What policies? Well, I've used Africa. Well, I can tell you a long list of things. One thing I would love to be Minister of Finance. I will cover all the tax regime. I will, it will be the the cheapest, the easiest, the simplest. It will be. It will be. I'd love to do that. I really I do not want to be the governor of the reserve Bank because nothing to do.29:53:44 - 30:07:01There's nothing left to do there. But I would love to be the Minister of Finance. There's a lot to do. But but I would what I would do, and I could give you a list of things we need to privatize. We need to have overall the tax regime. We have to get rid of policies and this and that and the other.30:07:05 - 30:26:11But I think this is another thing that we need to do. And it's going to sound very stupid and simple, but we've lost confidence in South Africa, business people. We've lost confidence. If you listen to the speakers here, the talk to the people here, we don't trust the government. We don't see an economic future going forward. We don't see a future for our children in South Africa.30:26:15 - 30:53:14We don't have confidence in the future of South Africa because nothing works. So do something that everybody will support that will be cheap and is likely to be a success. Just get one new one, just one, and then from be on we can do the next thing. And that one thing is clean the place up, clean this pigsty, clean the place up.30:53:18 - 31:05:23That's all that.Alec HoggDid you see when you came into HermanusDawie RoodtYes. Alec HoggIt's quite nice. Dawie RoodtYeah, it's a good place. Alec HoggDawie Roodt. Thank you.

BNC#8 Dawie Roodt Q&A: SA is falling behind - The hard truth about growth, taxes and the economy

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