BNC#8: Anthony Ginsberg - “AI, tech and a $10trn shift most investors are missing”

From Wall Street to Hermanus, Anthony Ginsberg delivers a blunt wake-up call: the global investing game has already shifted - and South Africa risks being left behind. In a keynote packed with insight, he unpacks the $10 trillion indexing revolution, why 90% of fund managers fail to beat the market, and why betting against America could be a costly mistake..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here:.Listen here:.Edited transcript of the interview.00:00:36 – 00:01:00Anthony GinsbergThat’s a tough act to follow, Rob Hersov and Alec. You always give me the toughest jobs, Alec — waking me up at midnight in California to ask for my opinion.It’s a huge privilege to stand here today. I’m a simple African boy, still a South African citizen — but greetings from Wall Street and Beverly Hills. I’ve got roots in Kimberley and Worcester. I haven’t changed that much.00:01:00 – 00:01:18And like Rob, I’m a deep patriot. I was just in Washington — I’ve got Minister Parks Tau on speed dial at 2am when the WhatsApps start flying. I’m always happy to help South Africa.Let me take you on a quick journey, because we’re living through a new world order.00:01:18 – 00:01:46The new world order — Alec wants me to talk about the tech revolution. My wife’s American, born and raised in Beverly Hills. She lives on AI tools 24/7 — it’s driving me crazy.But alongside that is something even bigger: the investing revolution. And it’s coming to South Africa.00:01:46 – 00:02:25It’s been coming for 20 years. I left South Africa after being teargassed at UCT. I went to the US — and they told me I’d never make it.Three weeks later, I realised something: those guys on Wall Street aren’t rocket scientists. You don’t need three PhDs or a Harvard MBA.00:02:25 – 00:03:08I was lucky. I built a career there. But I’m grateful to my parents — because 34 years later, I still come back every year.Africa is special. But from the outside, people are asking: what’s going on here?There’s enormous potential — but also concern.00:03:08 – 00:03:49Don’t lose your roots. There’s a massive South African diaspora overseas — and one of our biggest weaknesses is we don’t embrace them.Look at France — they brought Christine Lagarde back to lead globally.We should be doing the same.00:03:49 – 00:04:33Let’s talk about the investing revolution.There’s been a $10 trillion shift away from traditional fund managers into index funds and ETFs.That’s not a trend — that’s a structural shift.00:04:33 – 00:05:22Here’s the brutal truth:90% of US fund managers underperform the S&P 500The same applies in Europe — and increasingly in South Africa.Finding a winning fund manager today is like finding a needle in a haystack.00:05:22 – 00:06:21There are 10,000 analysts in the US. Information is priced in almost instantly.The old legends made money in a different era. Today, most “stars” fade quickly.00:06:21 – 00:07:12Indexing has changed everything. Firms like Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street — they dominate.Why?Because low cost wins.00:07:12 – 00:07:59Big pension funds overseas don’t gamble anymore.They use indexation as the foundation — then add active strategies on top.Cheap. Diversified. Scalable.00:08:00 – 00:08:40And now we enter the AI and tech era.Here’s the key lesson:Stay humble.Chasing the next big thing often ends badly.00:08:40 – 00:09:33You can’t time markets. You can’t predict winners.Instead — diversify across tech:AI, cloud, cybersecurity, blockchain.They’re all connected.00:09:33 – 00:10:01Meanwhile, America is far stronger than people think.00:10:01 – 00:10:55Yes, there are political shifts. Yes, Silicon Valley is evolving.But the fundamentals remain:GrowthCapitalInnovationThe US is still the engine.00:10:55 – 00:11:40There’s massive capital waiting to invest — including in South Africa.Wall Street still believes in this country.00:11:40 – 00:12:26There’s a deal to be made.The US wants partners.South Africa just needs to step up.00:12:26 – 00:13:13AI is driving a multi-trillion-dollar investment cycle.Tax cuts, capital expenditure, data centres — this is real infrastructure.00:13:13 – 00:14:11Tech is no longer siloed.It’s converging:AI + cloud + defence + dataYou can’t pick one — you need exposure to all.00:14:11 – 00:15:20This is a structural shift.Indexing has gone from 1% to over 60% of US retirement assets.That’s not a cycle — that’s a new system.00:15:20 – 00:16:13And here’s why:People got burned in 2008 chasing “stars.”Now they want:TransparencyLower costDiversification00:16:13 – 00:17:16AI investment alone is heading toward $3 trillion.But this isn’t 2000.Valuations are lower.Infrastructure is real.00:17:16 – 00:18:04There are smarter ways to invest globally today —Lower riskBetter diversificationMore transparency00:18:04 – 00:18:48Indexing is even entering insurance.$300 billion a year is flowing into indexed products.That’s how deep this shift runs.00:18:49 – 00:19:25For me, this is personal.This is home.And there are South Africans around the world who want to help.00:19:25 – 00:19:43There’s over $1 trillion in capital waiting on the sidelines.South Africa just needs to unlock it.00:19:43 – 00:20:32So stay optimistic.And ask your advisors one question:Why aren’t we talking more about index investing?Because the world already is.

BNC#8: Anthony Ginsberg - “AI, tech and a $10trn shift most investors are missing”

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