BNC#8: Hersov on Trump resetting the world order, China and the ANC’s “strategic blunder”

At BNC#8, Rob Hersov delivers a fiery keynote, arguing that South Africa is drifting dangerously off course as the global balance of power shifts back toward the West. From America’s renewed dominance to China’s cracks and Russia’s weakness, Hersov warns that the ANC has aligned with the wrong players at the worst possible time. His message is blunt: geopolitical reality is changing fast, and South Africa risks paying a heavy price for ignoring it..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here:.Listen here:.Edited transcript of the address.[00:13]Alec Hogg:I think that Rob Hersov did something incredible four and a half years ago — that’s how long ago it was — at our second BizNews Conference in the Drakensberg, where he stuck his neck out and spoke about a subject which was an uber-truth, a little bit like what Piet le Roux did yesterday, and very unpopular. Rob took enormous strain as a consequence of that, but he also received the undying support of the BizNews tribe, because uber-truths need to be spoken. And that’s one thing you can be sure of: that we will hear once again from Mr Hersov.[01:09]Rob Hersov:At that conference that Alec mentioned, I said something. I said: if you’re still voting ANC, you are a moron. And I got into hell for that. But I want to double down today. If you’re still voting ANC, you’re not only a moron — you hate South Africa.Because what Ambassador Bozell said yesterday, he said three things. One, America’s running out of patience with South Africa. Two, South Africa is a top-10 priority. Think about it: if you take out Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba — I wonder who the last three are? Us and two others. And three, that corporate South Africans are not standing up and telling truth to power. They sit around the braai, but they don’t call it out — which I have been saying.My wife said to me, “Please make a sensible speech this year.” And I was going to start by saying Trump can do no wrong. But I’m not going to say that, because I actually went into Manus, the AI that I use, and I said: “Please list the 20 most successful and impressive things Trump has done.” Unbelievable list. Close the border. The stock market hasn’t tanked. I could go on and on and on. Then I said: “Please list the 20 things that he’s failed at.” It couldn’t get beyond four before it was absolutely minor. Do it yourself as an experiment.[02:50]And that’s what my speech is about today. Trump is resetting the world order. Russia is weak. China is cracking. America is strong. And guess what? The ANC, once again, has chosen the losing side. But the most important dates I want to tell you about today are 31 March to 2 April, end of this month. And I’ll get to that in a second.But I first want to tell you the truth — the real truth, not the sort of ANC24 truth. And the real truth is that Trump and the West are winning strategically, militarily, economically, and above all psychologically.The great myth of the last decade — that America, the empire, is finished, the West is declining, and a new anti-Western order is rising — that myth is collapsing in real time right now. And for South Africa, under the morally vain and strategically brain-dead leadership of the ANC — and that’s me being polite — that collapse is going to be expensive, because the ANC backed the wrong side and the bill is coming due. Trump is losing patience with South Africa.[04:15]For years, the chattering classes told us that America was in decline, China was the future, Russia was resurgent, Iran was untouchable, and BRICS was the new centre of gravity. The post-American world order had arrived. It all sounded very clever, but it was rubbish. Because what they did was they confused noise with power. And reality is exposing them.When things get serious — wars, shipping lanes, sanctions, currencies, intelligence, energy, logistics, hard power — the same old truth reappears. America still sits at the centre of the chessboard. And America is the only power that can protect what we take for granted.Now, I know everyone’s saying we should be unaligned. I think we should be aligned with the Judeo-Christian West and the civilisation we believe in.And think about it: the West, for all its flaws, still has the deepest capital markets, the strongest alliances, the most credible militaries, the reserve currency, the best technology, and the greatest ability to project power across finance, oceans, aerospace, data and diplomacy. And that’s not ideology. That’s reality.[05:54]So let’s talk about Russia. Too many people, especially the fools in Pretoria and the lefty Western media, still speak about Russia as though it were some unstoppable colossus. It isn’t. Russia is not the Soviet Union. It is not a global economic superpower. It is not a serious developmental model. It is simply a weak, corrupt, extractive petrostate with nuclear weapons.Its economy is smaller than you can imagine. It’s about the same size as Spain — Russia’s economy. It depends heavily on commodities. It has very little industrial strength or depth. Its demographics are awful. Its innovation base is very weak. And its governance is like mafia politics with flags — a bit like the ANC.And Russia is losing the war in Ukraine by not winning. In fact, Ukraine, in the last week, has been gaining ground. Russia is in a meat-grinder situation. So what have we seen? We’ve seen a military machine that looks less like a superpower and more like a gangster empire running on brutality and lies. And that’s not strength.What is real strength? Real strength builds, attracts allies, creates prosperity and inspires confidence — and Russia does none of that. And that’s why lunatics like the ANC, hoping Russia will protect them, are making a catastrophic miscalculation. When Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and the ANC look to Moscow as a counterweight to Washington, they are tying themselves to a sick and limping horse. Dangerous, but sick and limping.[07:46]What about China? China’s more formidable than Russia, more serious and more consequential a country. But even China is nowhere near as invincible as its propaganda suggests. China’s rise over the last 30 years was real — mainly thanks to that idiot Bill Clinton allowing them into the World Trade Organization. Its industrial expansion was real and its export machine was real.But what built modern China? Two things, two engines: real estate and property, and exports. Those are the two main drivers of its GDP, if you can believe their statistics — and I tell you not to. So exports and property: both of those are under severe pressure in China. Their export model, Temu and others, are being hit hard by Trump’s tariffs, by de-risking, friend-shoring and diversification.And the China property model — and this you may not know — is a slow-motion disaster. China has built 70 to 80 million homes that are empty. Seventy to 80 million. If the ANC had done it, it would claim that to be a huge success. Empty. There are cities in China that are uninhabited. And the main Chinese development company is bankrupt and owned by the state.Then if you throw in the rest of what’s going on in China — weak consumer confidence, youth unemployment, capital flight, a shrinking population, a paranoid Communist Party, and huge internal tensions signalled by recent purges in the military — you realise China has a real problem.And authoritarian systems always look stronger from the outside than from the inside. China still matters, but China is not 10 foot tall. And crucially, China still relies heavily on the West.[10:12]So let’s look forward to 31 March to 2 April, when Trump meets Xi Jinping. Most journalists frame this as a clash of equals, but it’s not. Trump walks in with all the main cards in his hand.One, energy leverage. A third of China’s oil comes from the Middle East. Chinese energy security depends heavily on a region where the United States, not China, increasingly exerts power.Second, trade leverage. Trump’s tariffs are pressure points on Chinese manufacturing and exports.Third, military credibility. America has truly experienced military power — they’ve been fighting for the last 30 years — real alliances and decades of power projection. China has scale and ambition, but limited war-fighting experience. And military strength is not any more about size. It’s about precision, experience, AI and alliances. And China is way behind America.And fourth, time pressure. China needs stability way more than America, which means Trump can push hard. He’s transactional. He understands leverage, and he can negotiate from strength. And right now, strength is with Washington, not Beijing.[11:30]And people underrate America’s strength. America still has the world’s reserve currency, deepest capital markets, elite universities and institutions, the most dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem, immense energy capability, leading technology, leading military, and a political culture that, for all its madness, allows course correction. And this last point matters. Authoritarian regimes look tidy until they crack. America looks chaotic while continually generating strength.And then there’s energy. America is a continental power with huge energy resources, industrial depth, oceans to protect it on both sides, friendly neighbours — which is a terrifying combination for its enemies. And America’s international strength is even more decisive.What country can secure sea lanes, underwrite allies, sanction adversaries, dominate aerospace, shape reserve currencies, influence insurers, and still put three carrier groups wherever it wants to? There’s only one: the United States.And that’s why the strikes on Iran matter so much. Because it’s capability. Iran has learned it. China fears it. And Russia now understands it. America has real power.[12:54]And if you look at Iran, it’s not Iraq 2003. It’s not a fantasy about occupying countries for a generation and trying to turn tribal societies into the new Scandinavia. America is not trying to turn countries into its image any more. It’s just making sure those countries act in its interest. Look at Venezuela: hit the threat, degrade the capability, avoid occupation, reshape behaviour, move on.America is focused on its interests, not its image, and that’s the new doctrine, and it’s working. And this is a message to Moscow, Beijing, Caracas, Havana, obviously Tehran, Pyongyang, and to the ANC: the adults are back in charge, and you’re not as safe as you thought, ANC.But I want to mention one last thing. It’s a grand strategy going on. It’s 3D chess. Look at the board. Venezuela decapitated. Iran crippled. Not coincidentally, those two countries are major oil suppliers — or were — to China. Iran also fed Russia’s war machine with drones. When oil goes up, Russia benefits. But what is happening is the West is replacing hostile oil with friendly oil.And if Venezuela and Iran end up with more Western-aligned regimes pumping oil back into global markets, guess what happens? Oil price goes down, Russia’s war effort collapses.[14:22]Two, control the choke points. Panama, back in American influence. And the Strait of Hormuz — 20% of the world’s oil goes through there. What’s going to matter? American influence in the Strait of Hormuz is the end result. And America is able to ensure all shipping going through the Strait of Hormuz. France is sending its one aircraft carrier there to protect the Strait of Hormuz. It will be Western-aligned, regardless of what happens in Iran.So the new arms race is artificial intelligence. And the key input into that race is advanced semiconductor chips. Before export controls, China relied heavily on the United States and its allies for those chips, which were designed in America and Israel, manufactured largely in Taiwan, and powered by Dutch machines on Western software. Can China replace that ecosystem? No. Not even close.Chinese chip-makers are years behind in advanced AI processes. Even if you hear China’s leapfrogging American AI — they’ll leapfrog each other — but it’s based on silicon. It’s based on semiconductors, and that is the weapon the West controls. If Washington was fully serious — and this may come — it would treat AI chips, restrict them, control them, and export-limit them.[16:15]People ask me: “Well, won’t China invade Taiwan?” Possibly, but unlikely. Here’s why. Firstly, China’s military has seen what America can do, and they’ve got Japan and the Philippines and South Korea sitting right there — American allies. Secondly, it’s all or nothing for China. But if they do invade, Taiwan’s semiconductor factories are equipped with high-tech self-destruction capabilities which render them inoperable.China cannot invade Taiwan and seize the semiconductors. It can’t happen.But unlike oilfields, silicon isn’t scarce. It’s simply sand. So what really matters is the process, the talent and the ecosystem. The engineers, the designers, the supply chains, the know-how. And who has that? America.China’s economy would be hit hardest of all by an invasion of Taiwan. They can’t afford it, even if they think they can make it happen.So what is happening? AI is driving military campaigns. Look at Iran. Russian and Chinese defence: neutralised.So America’s doctrine is no longer shock and awe. It’s more like clap and withdraw. And it’s a very powerful new doctrine, and it seems to be working. Oil built the 20th century. Silicon will shape the 21st century.[18:00]And here’s the final irony. Oil wealth empowered autocrats and kleptocrats — the Kremlin, Iran, Venezuela. But silicon only thrives in free societies.So let me say it plainly: the multipolar fantasy is dying. Not because Russia, China and Iran won’t continue causing problems — they will — but they can’t convert grievance into a superior order. BRICS is fundamentally weak. India is pulling out of BRICS. BRICS is no longer going to replace America as the order. America is back.And let’s bring it back to South Africa quickly. If there was an Olympic event for geopolitical idiocy, the ANC would be on the podium, probably with a gold medal. I mean, they’ve alienated friends, they’ve done deals with countries that bring us no value, and they’ve turned away America. And as you heard yesterday, America will bring us so much money, so much opportunity, and the international markets. Even Mteto Nyati said to me yesterday: “They’re idiots, the ANC. We should be pushing on an open door with America.” Moronic.South Africa needs the West more than the West needs South Africa. And the ANC thinks it can offend the West without paying a price. Guess what? That’s fantasy. And their headache is coming.[19:27]So let me zoom out. Trump will get a deal done at the end of this month. He will return to America with massive foreign policy successes, which will give him a much better chance for his domestic agenda in America and a much better chance in the midterms. I think it’s 50-50 whether he can win the midterms or not, but the odds are getting better.And Russia can’t save the ANC. China won’t save the ANC. BRICS won’t save the ANC. The ANC will be punished politically, economically, or both.So here’s my final word. Trump and his allies are winning. Russia is weak. China is cracking. Iran has been sent back a century. And the fake news of BRICS taking over is not going to happen. America remains, by a large margin, the central power in the world system.And in this world, the ANC has chosen, with breathtaking stupidity, to cosy up to losers, tyrants, Islamists, and to antagonise the very civilisation on which South Africa’s civilisation still depends. That is not foreign policy. That is vandalism with diplomatic credentials.[20:56]The world is resetting. Trump’s America is winning, and the ANC has pushed South Africa onto the losing side. It is time to face reality — and voetsek, ANC.

BNC#8: Hersov on Trump resetting the world order, China and the ANC’s “strategic blunder”

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