BNC#8: John Endres - South Africa hasn’t turned the corner yet... but its politics might be

The Institute of Race Relations CEO John Endres cuts through the optimism at BNC#8, warning that South Africa’s “recovery” is more illusion than reality. Growth remains weak, investment is collapsing, and real reform is still missing. Yet beneath the surface, something deeper may be shifting — voters are prioritising jobs over ideology, and political power is beginning to realign. If that continues, Endres argues, South Africa’s real turning point may still lie ahead.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the keynote speech.00:00:23 – 00:00:51John EndresGood. Thank you very much, everyone. You are the true heroes of this conference for sticking it out over three days — in the cold, in the heat — and being here when it mattered.We’ve heard some fantastic talks, and I want to bring together a few key threads to assess what we’ve learned.00:00:51 – 00:01:14Over dinner yesterday, I learned a new word: “rollercoaster.” That perfectly captures the mood of this conference — a tension between hope and gloom.But there’s another tension too: between what needs to be done, and what we can actually do.00:01:14 – 00:02:05So let’s start with the big question: Has South Africa turned the corner?Government says yes — pointing to improved public finances and early signs of recovery.But in a room like this, you’ll get two reactions:Some say “finally.” Others say “not so fast.”Both, I think, are partly right.00:02:05 – 00:03:22On the surface, the case for optimism is easy:Bond yields have fallenBusiness confidence has improvedGDP growth has picked up slightlyLoad shedding has easedThe GNU has held togetherPut it all together and you get a neat narrative:South Africa is stabilising.00:03:22 – 00:04:19But here’s the problem:👉 1% growth is not a turning point. It’s just failing more slowly.Even 2% — even 3% — isn’t enough to repair the damage of the past decade.00:04:19 – 00:05:34The deeper issue is investment.South Africa’s fixed investment has collapsed — from over 21% of GDP to just 14.5%.Globally, that number is closer to 26%. Emerging markets often exceed 30%.We’re not building enough roads, rail, ports, dams, or factories.And without that — growth, jobs, and income gains simply won’t come.00:05:34 – 00:06:24To create meaningful employment — around 900,000 jobs a year — South Africa needs:👉 6% to 8% growthEverything below that is drift.00:06:24 – 00:07:09We also need to stop confusing good luck with real progress.Commodity prices rise, the rand strengthens, and suddenly we talk about renewal.But that’s not transformation — that’s just good weather.00:07:09 – 00:07:46So the surface story is clear:Yes, there are improvements.But no, we haven’t turned the corner — not in any meaningful sense.00:07:46 – 00:08:41The deeper question is more important:👉 Are politics beginning to align with what voters actually want?Because if they are — then real change becomes possible.00:08:41 – 00:09:37And here’s where things get interesting.We’re seeing cracks in the old consensus — even mainstream platforms are now questioning policies like BEE.That shift matters.Because for years, outcomes could be criticised — but not the system itself.00:09:37 – 00:10:54That’s changing.The room is no longer as cold when fundamental questions are asked.And that tells us something important:👉 The debate is opening up.00:10:54 – 00:11:45Politically, the 2024 election was a structural break.For the first time, the ANC lost dominance.Polling now shows something even more striking:👉 The DA and ANC are effectively neck and neck.That has never happened before.00:11:45 – 00:12:42Even more important:When South Africans are asked what matters most — the answer is clear:👉 Jobs.Across almost every demographic group.00:12:42 – 00:13:28Not inequality.Not race.Not land reform.👉 Jobs and unemployment dominate.That’s a massive gap between political messaging and public priorities.00:13:28 – 00:14:15And when people are asked what policies they prefer:Nearly 78% choose jobs over welfareOver 80% want value-for-money government spendingStrong majorities support vouchers over BEE-style policiesThese are not fringe views.👉 These are democratic signals.00:14:15 – 00:15:08So the real story is this:South Africa hasn’t turned the corner economically —👉 But politically, it might be starting to.00:15:08 – 00:16:06And that creates something powerful:👉 Conditional optimismIf politics shifts — policy can change.If policy changes — investment can rise.If investment rises — growth can accelerate.00:16:06 – 00:17:15What needs to change? Three things:End race-based lawsSecure property rightsRestore value for money in the stateThese are not ideological debates —They are economic necessities.00:17:15 – 00:18:36At its core, South Africa needs to become a country that:👉 Builds more👉 Produces more👉 Employs more👉 Trusts its citizens moreThe potential is there.The missing ingredient is permission — through policy.00:18:36 – 00:19:26The biggest risk now isn’t policy —👉 It’s despondencySurveys show up to 80% of South Africans believe the country is on the wrong track.That mindset affects everything — investment, ambition, risk-taking.00:19:26 – 00:20:16But pessimism can become a trap.Countries aren’t saved by people who are right about decline —They’re saved by people willing to fight for change.00:20:16 – 00:21:20So what can you do?VoteSpeak upSupport reform-driven organisationsBack policies that drive growthSilence has consequences.00:21:20 – 00:22:10Even businesses should speak honestly:If policies hurt growth and jobs — say so.Because without that pressure, nothing changes.00:22:10 – 00:23:06So, has South Africa turned the corner?👉 Not yet.But politically — something is shifting.And if that shift continues, the country could surprise the world.00:23:06 – 00:23:39Final thought:Don’t confuse green shoots with a harvest.But don’t miss the opportunity either.If South Africa wins the policy argument —👉 It won’t just turn the corner.👉 It will begin to run.

BNC#8: John Endres - South Africa hasn’t turned the corner yet... but its politics might be

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