BNIC#2 Frans Cronje: Easy fixes, huge stakes - reform now or face a balkanised South Africa

At BNIC#2 in Hermanus, political scientist Frans Cronje delivered a stark but data-driven forecast for South Africa’s future. He argued that investor confidence is the critical driver of growth, jobs, and political stability – and warned that unless South Africa lifts fixed investment to emerging-market levels, the country risks fragmenting into self-sufficient enclaves. Cronje outlined a three-step plan: refurbish coal plants to restore electricity, stop taxing capital inflows, and fully concession ports and rail. He added that US investment could catalyse growth, but without reforms the poor face exclusion while elites retreat into secure enclaves.

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