BNC#8: Cy Jacobs shoots from the hip – War, markets, and the bold bets shaping your money next

BNC#8 keynote speaker Cy Jacobs delivered a no-notes, high-conviction masterclass on navigating chaos – from geopolitical shocks to shifting market cycles. Backing South African commodities, questioning Europe, and eyeing fresh opportunity in beaten-down US tech, Jacobs reveals how smart money reads fear, predicts turning points, and positions ahead of the next global move..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here:.Listen here:.Edited transcript of the keynote speech.Good morning, everyone - and thank you for being here.Alec, thanks for having me again.This talk is going to be a little different. I didn’t come with slides. I didn’t come with notes. I’m just going to speak openly — about how I see the markets, how we think at 36ONE, and where we believe the opportunities are right now.Because ultimately, investing isn’t about memorising history. It’s about understanding what happens next.The 36ONE philosophyTo understand how we invest, it helps to understand where we come from.My partner and I were small shareholders in a stockbroking firm that was sold to Investec in 1999. We joined on a five-year deal — and within months, we realised what we didn’t want.We didn’t want layers of management. Endless meetings. Committees.So when that restraint period ended, we left — and built something very different.A small, sharp team. Focused purely on managing money well.That became 36ONE Asset Management.Today, we’re a multi-strategy business. Hedge funds, balanced funds, local and global equities — each run independently, each with its own objective.Because there’s no single “right” strategy. Only the right strategy for the moment.How we actually investAt 36ONE, we don’t just study history — we try to anticipate behaviour.Markets are forward-looking. So we focus on how markets will respond to events, not just the events themselves.Take Covid in early 2020.We saw it coming in January. By March, we had already reduced equity exposure, gone short where necessary, and repositioned portfolios.Not because we knew everything — but because we understood how markets react to fear.That’s the game. Positioning ahead of the cycle.South Africa vs global marketsThere’s always a debate:Do you stay in South Africa, or go offshore?What’s interesting is this — over the past five years, the South African market, in dollar terms, has actually outperformed many global indices.Why?Because the JSE isn’t just South Africa. It’s a global proxy — commodities, multinationals, resources.So even in a weak domestic economy, there have been opportunities.If you understood the cycles.Reading the current momentRight now, we’re dealing with something bigger — geopolitical risk.There’s a war underway. And the question is simple:How does this end?Our view is that it does not escalate into a global conflict. China and Russia don’t have the incentive to enter directly.And that matters — because markets price worst-case scenarios first.We saw it recently. Panic in markets. Oil spikes. Then suddenly, reality kicks in — oil drops, markets rebound.That’s the opportunity.When fear peaks, positioning matters most.Where we’re investing nowSo where do we go from here?First — South Africa.There are positives. Energy has stabilised. Infrastructure is improving. Policy direction feels more disciplined.But the market has already priced in much of that optimism.Bond yields have compressed. Banks and property have rerated strongly.And growth? Still slow.So we’re cautious on domestic SA — not negative, but selective.The commodity edgeWhat we do like is commodities.Global demand remains strong. Industrial metals — particularly copper — are critical to the next phase of global growth.And South Africa is rich in exactly those resources.That’s where the real strength lies.The US opportunityAt the same time, we see opportunity in the US again.Markets have sold off. Tech has derated. Sentiment has turned cautious.And that’s exactly when you start paying attention.You’ve got companies like Microsoft and Amazon — deeply embedded in the global economy — trading at far more reasonable valuations.These aren’t speculative plays.They’re infrastructure.And they’re not going anywhere.Why Europe doesn’t excite usEurope, on the other hand, is harder to justify.Structural issues. Weak leadership. Slow industrial growth.And increasing competition from China — particularly in sectors like automotive.There are pockets of value, yes. But broadly, conviction is limited.The bigger ideaIf there’s one idea to take away, it’s this:Markets overreact.They always have.And the job of a good investor is not to panic with them — but to understand what comes next.Fear creates dislocation. Dislocation creates opportunity.Closing thoughtSo right now, we’re positioning for what comes next.Not the panic. Not the headlines.But the recovery.Because the best investments are rarely obvious in the moment.They’re made when things feel uncertain — and clarity hasn’t arrived yet.Thank you.

BNC#8: Cy Jacobs shoots from the hip – War, markets, and the bold bets shaping your money next

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