Members Only: BNC#8 Anthony Ginsberg Q&A - Inside the $tn deal, US tensions and urgent call to act

Sitting down with Alec Hogg, Anthony Ginsberg discusses South Africa’s economic future, global positioning, and urgent need for pragmatic leadership. From strained US relations and missed trade opportunities to AI disruption and investment potential, the discussion highlights both risk and opportunity. With billions in foreign capital waiting, the message is clear: engage, negotiate, and act decisively. South Africa’s growth hinges on stronger diplomacy, business-friendly policies, and embracing global partnerships before the window of opportunity closes..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the keynote Q&A.Alec Hogg 00:20:38 - 00:40:12Sorry. I obviously didn't brief you properly. This was not an investment talk. But anyway, you've given some useful insights about indexation stuff that we kind of know in South Africa. But anyway, I'd be interested to hear you say you got pox on your on your speed dial.00:40:16 - 00:43:10Why is he on your speed dial?Anthony Ginsberg 00:43:14 - 01:04:13I actually like pox and I think he's actually a decent chap. He's trying to do what's right for SA, but as you guys know, and I think Rob referred to it, when you've got a cabinet with different ministers, one cabinet minister doesn't have as much power as we all think. We sort of assume one guy's going to be able to make all the changes.01:04:17 - 01:25:08It's a committee at the end of the day, all cabinet meetings. So in some ways I feel sorry for my friend pox, because he's a hell of a good chap and he's trying his best. Alec HoggHow well do you know him? IAnthony Ginsberg Actually now you're putting me on the spot. The night before they saw Trump at the White House, I went in there to see the DC delegation.01:25:08 - 01:46:35I said, guys, this be humble about this. You're going into the lion's den. Americans want to get a deal done. Just split, as we say. Split the difference. Thread the needle. Whether it's on IWC, whether it's on B, and he said to me, Anthony , we understand. Don't panic. We're going to get something done. Be pragmatic. 01:46:42 - 02:12:36This country's got a history of pragmatism. When you think about, all the history that we grew up with, some terre-blanche move terre-blanche FW and other people who were pragmatic from sales. But others. I'm hoping that these guys realised that's the way for the future. He embedded in me that he understands what is required. But when you take two steps forward and a step back because of Iran or what Rob referred to as Dirco, it's tricky.02:12:40 - 02:34:06Honestly, we don't have a voice. Who the hell is our voice in DC Alec ?We need somebody like the former China, the current chairman of Eskom. We need a voice. Japan, Korea. All these trade delegations are coming fast and furiously every week to America. I've got mates in DC use it and there's actually bugger all voice of S.A. in our country.02:34:06 - 02:56:39We never hear about South Africa except for murders. So it's sad for me. I mean, we want to help and all we need is more focus and getting a deal across the line. We can survive with whatever 15 to 20, 30% tariffs. I just want to say one thing, Alec. It's easy to get a deal done. The Yanks want a deal.02:56:43 - 03:28:02They want to get a deal done before the midterms, before Trump possibly loses in, in November. So that's the message I got from parks as well. So I'm holding thumbs. Alec HoggBut if these guys are telling you they pragmatic and then they go into the lion's den and start talking about how what a disaster South Africa is and how we full of crime and it there was no pragmatism there, and there was certainly no pragmatism from the returns.03:28:02 - 03:44:35So were they just telling you what you wanted to hear, or was was this some kind of a disconnect? Anthony GinsbergNow I'm talking about subsequently, just in the last couple of weeks, I've been in touch with them. They are trying to send a new delegation there. The biggest problem we probably have is we don't have an ambassador in the country either.03:44:39 - 04:02:39All these other countries. I'm referring to don't just bring trade delegations on a continual basis. They have permanent trade envoys in the country, whether that's through their ambassador or the next level down our embassy in DC can really be upgraded. I've got friends, even in places like London, they say, Anthony we don't know who the SA ambassador is today.04:02:48 - 04:23:00Ambassadors for countries like South Africa should be trade envoy. They should be bringing trade missions down here. You and I have talked you in the middle of the night when you call me up about LC. In here, she's bringing trade missions, maybe..Alec Hogg Just to explain, to talk a bit about LC. It's a lady. It's a woman that I know from the World Economic Forum.04:23:04 - 04:47:47And she is. She was the head of Africa. She to look after Africa dynamic, incredibly, smart, vibrant. And Anthony knows her and she's actually Tanzanian. Anthony GinsbergSo. So she's in my white bio group. Look, we've got a cabal with his white beard. We know everybody, okay? And she said, Ant I'm bringing mayors from Houston, mayors from Detroit, mayors from Baltimore to come and trade missions to Dar es Salaam.04:48:01 - 05:05:15If she's actually looking for leadership from the big boy on the block, which is South Africa, I say, where the hell is the South African leadership for Africa? You're missing in action. MIA. That's what a lot of Yanks will say to me. When are you appointing an ambassador? When are you sending trade missions? So so much more can be done.05:05:15 - 05:31:45I'm as I say, Americans go to crossing fingers. We go to holding thumbs. Yeah. It's not impossible. You need a bit of pragmatism and humbleness. We can't be arrogant. A deal is on the table. A pox has actually suggested LNG deals. Rare earth deals. There are a few things that need to be done. But of course, the uranium thing every now and again flares up, and then we have a step or two back.05:31:49 - 05:52:44So that's been upsetting the last few months just to see how close we could have gotten. And then the flare ups. And this war doesn't help when you.Alec Hoggwhen you say the Iranian thing flares up, just explain. Is it anything to do with what Rob was saying earlier about MTN and that involvement in the ANC being funded? Do you get any sense that Iran is off limits?Anthony Ginsberg 05:52:48 - 06:13:09You know, there's a big court case that's been going for a couple of years in the states with MTN. Unfortunately, in the New York courts, the Southern District of Manhattan, which is used to actually going after big, big, global corporates, I think that can deal can be done with that will be, moved and be set aside as part of this trade deal potentially.06:13:21 - 06:29:23So there's an attraction for Cyril and other guys of goodwill. And I spoke to many in the Busa. This is unity who said and come on, we're so bloody close. Just help us. There are a couple of guys that you know in the white House. It's easy. As I said, you 1 or 2 have been born in South Africa.06:29:27 - 06:50:33You can get it done. It's not rocket science. These guys want engagement. There's a big difference between the Brits, I would say having worked at Barclays, which is maybe more colonialist, you go through a whole bureaucracy, the Yanks, they want you to call them up at 2:00 in the morning on WhatsApp or whatever it is, or have some other channels that we use there and actually engage.06:50:37 - 07:07:03When I lived in New York, Donald Trump would get very frustrated with people if they even if you disagreed with him, if you didn't engage with the guy, if you ignore a guy like that for a month or two months or three months, he gets, can I say this word? He gets fricking pissed off, man. You've got to actually engage with him.07:07:03 - 07:24:14My own wife, okay? I've been married 31 years. A little bit of gray hair here. She's American, she says. And if you don't talk to me, you know, I'm going to go and chop you down at the knees. So you've got to engage the. We grew up Anglo-Saxon you, but, I mean UCT where I went.07:24:14 - 07:41:24We were always, you know, goody two shoes in a way, until the tear gas started coming. I've learned to be more Americanized. I'm an American and a South African. You've got to engage with these guys. They want to actually get deals done. And the good news for Israel is they're dealmakers, like nick percent, a whole bunch of other names I can throw out.07:41:33 - 08:04:11They want to get stuff done. Alec HoggSo that's why the ambassador was pretty peeved by the fact that South Africa's ignored them for a year. He made that point here. Anthony GinsbergTime's running out. I hate to say it..Alec HoggBut that would have pissed him off more than pretty much, giving the wrong answer. If you like that, you just give no answer.08:04:11 - 08:30:38From what you've told us.Anthony GinsbergYou don't have to agree with the President Trump 100%. He actually likes the cut interest. He's a hell of a good debater. He's better than most guys. If you could just get 51% across the line with him, you can probably do what the UK did. Get your tariffs down to 10%. South Africa geopolitically, place it like Simon Town, I don't agree with Rob that the US's Lincoln's coming anytime soon, but as a Cape Town boy I remember Simon's Town well 08:30:38 - 08:52:07It's geopolitically and your friend Frans Cronje. He talks about it all the time. It's a hell of a importance. I forget seat by the Americans as a critical base for the entire region, all the way up to the least the Congo for rare earth minerals. There's such potential here. They want to get a deal done. They also want the mining minister to hopefully engage a bit more with them to look.08:52:07 - 09:13:48Parks is an appoint the mining minister. You know quite well they understand that parks is the point of the spear. They just don't want to have commerce if that's the right word. In Iran, they want to hear about South Africa and Iran. Keep that on the low burner tribe nonaligned is both the minister. The ambassador rather said earlier it deals there in the offing.09:13:48 - 09:34:32Honestly. So I'm remain an optimist and will continue with my people of goodwill in America to help get this deal across the line. My own tutor was a Rhodes Scholar, for God's sake, on a partner in top Wall Street law firms. Their amazing talents over there who just want to get help. So embrace your diaspora. I would just say one last thing from a business audience.09:34:32 - 09:56:23I mean, this is an elite audience. The amount of talent overseas of exiled Africans is probably more impressive than any other bloody country that I've met. Honestly, when I go around the world, I just came back from Australia. I was in in Europe last week. Yeah, they've done phenomenally well. Embrace your fellow South Africans. They all want to come back.09:56:27 - 10:19:31They want to invest. And, you know, it's a bit emotional. I actually tear up a bit. Alec HoggSo who's who's stopping this deal that's about to be done? What's what's the obstacle? Anthony GinsbergNo, I think it's a pretty simple story. And Rob touched on it. He's not wrong. I'm never going to go up against my friend Rob. But the point is.10:19:35 - 10:41:23You've got to be pragmatic. Globally, the Indians are nonaligned. They working with all kinds of countries. Why can't we follow the Indian example? Why do we have to go out there, and blow our own trumpet with Iran? We can follow the Mr. Modi in India. I think that's a very good lesson for us. And that's probably on the foreign affairs side, stopping the potential deal right now.Alec Hogg 10:41:27 - 11:06:37So your advice knowing Washington well, knowing South Africa well, knowing the American psyche, because you've lived as an American, although you are South African, there's no ex other African, by the way, when remains the South African. You just happened to be relocated for the moment, right. You say Modi is your model. Follow the Indians. They getting it right.11:06:41 - 11:28:44Why how how what are they doing that Pretoria can learn from?Anthony GinsbergI think sometimes we are a bit arrogant. We can be humble. There are success stories. It's not just India. There are other places around the world that you can point to. But one of the BRICS is not helping this country when you've got a TEMU and Shein dumping cheap, cheap goods here, how does that help your economy grow?11:28:48 - 11:54:27I think the answer is what the Indians have done. They've realised, like South Africa, you have 600,000 metric leavers a year. I believe only about 100,000 of them can get jobs right now. What's our priority? Having cheap goods where a family of mine can buy a Chinese call for half the price of a German coal. Is that the winner or that my niece in Joburg can buy a dress for next to nothing?11:54:31 - 12:09:49And then you find the truth is, in the local industries have been decimated. The Yanks have woken up to the fact. And the reason Trump was voted in at a bottom line is there was a revenge of the working class. The Americans said we're gaartful with cheap, cheap goods coming in from China being dumped on us.12:10:06 - 12:28:46We also gaartfull with the Mexicans coming across open borders. It wasn't just Mexicans, by the way. It was a lot of other people coming across the border. Trump actually got the working class to vote for him. Republicans typically, or people like like us, they go to country clubs and they live in nice communities. He flipped the script.12:29:00 - 12:45:35He and maybe Nigel Farage, by the way, in the UK might flip it to where you get the working class who actually have not seen an increase in their wages, their salaries for 20 odd years. They are the ones voting for Trump. They want the tariffs against China. They don't care about the tariffs against Europe and South Africa.12:45:35 - 13:19:36We're peanuts. It's mainly a story against China. And it's mainly an anti-immigration, that they want high quality immigrants, but they don't want illegal immigrants. During President Biden, not only did he block all these tech deals and have all these bureaucrats blocking with a lot of red tape and high taxes, the business community really suffered under him. And Trump was lucky, I guess, because he came in right off to that, cutting red tape, cutting taxes, and having actually a foreign policy, people he ran against, frankly, didn't have much of a foreign policy a year or two ago.Alec Hogg 13:19:38 - 13:43:02What do they think of the refugees that have landed there? I ask this because they've been mixed reports. One lot saying they've integrated well, another lot saying they really haven't. Anthony GinsbergYou know, you always be tough questions. I'm a bit jetlagged still, so can I just take a sip and say, if you watch CNN, they completely hate the white refugee story from South Africa.13:43:02 - 13:51:25And they had a program here. And I think unfortunately, we, the some South African folks were quite negative on there about it.13:51:29 - 14:17:29If you turn on Fox News, you get a complete 380 or 360 degree different view. The Americans typically understand that the economy hasn't grown yet. They say to me, and if you're growing at less than 1% GDP for the last decade, what on Earth is going on? Is there economic, a genocide? They don't talk about killings in the sense of of human genocide, but they do what economically they hear people losing jobs that most white folks have had a harder time.14:17:33 - 14:42:01And with such a small percentage of the community, does it need to continue? So Trump's doing it, I think really symbolically is not a huge number. Your friend, Colonel Chris and I just talk about a couple of thousand that..Alec HoggChris's friend, Chris Stein's friend somebody she interviewed . I don't know, the guy. I've never met him, but I do I do think that he's got some very useful insights.Anthony Ginsberg 14:42:01 - 15:19:24Well, the intelligence community says to me and to others, look, and this is more symbolic, it's a couple of thousand guys. It doesn't move the the needle. It's a signal to the SARS government. They want to engage. They see that their problems is really an economic signal. These are economic refugees, more so than anything else. Alec Hogg When you talk about, the, the future, then I would love to get as a South African living in America, your perception of what the ambassador said here, because he doesn't seem to be he was telling us, it doesn't seem is not a traditional, politically appointed ambassador.15:19:24 - 15:40:17Thank you for giving us money for funding the campaign. You go and have a, a cocktail circuit posting some way he seems to be someone who who wants to get things done. Anthony GinsbergI think he's a really good shepherd. I'm glad that he actually came with a very helpful tone yesterday, because he's actually encouraging South Africans to get a deal done.15:40:24 - 16:05:07He's really talking about commercial diplomacy. That's the word in D.C. commercial diplomacy. It means that the days of Chester Crocker, an assistant secretary of state, they're gone. There's no there is no permanent assistant secretary of state for the last year. We don't have those kind of guys running around much anymore. It's all about commercial diplomacy and Trump has empowered, Brazil to really get a deal across the line.16:05:15 - 16:22:32But we have no voice in DC. So sorry to be a broken record here. You've got to have permanent. It's a representation in DC quickly. We've got to wake up within the next month. Cyril please, God, if he's listening, he's going to appoint an ambassador, a trade envoy. We've got to have what Korea. What Japan and what India.16:22:32 - 16:39:40Have they got guys coming every month. It's the likes of top, top business leaders. Some of them I'm I'm also on speed dial with. They want to come. They want to help. It's really the needle and stepping up to the plate like great Brazil said, these are American baseball expressions. Stepping up to the plate like stepping up to the wicket.16:39:44 - 16:58:35Just get there. Sit on the ground for a couple of weeks. You'll get the deal done. But if you don't have an ambassador who's speaking for you, CNN or Fox, you can't rely on the American media. They are ADD man. Every day it's a different story when they'd straight all moves and the next day it's, anthropic, legal case.16:58:47 - 17:05:29So we need a voice, and we need good South Africans of substance to represent us, ASAP.Alec Hogg 17:12:07 -17:38:35Renee Kilner wants to know, how do you reconcile your positive view of Park Star with the fact that as the mayor of Jo'burg, he was responsible for the implementation of some of the deep rooted, corrupt system still plaguing the city today. Being deeply involved with the regiments capital and info revealed in the, Zondo must be Zondo not conduct commission.17:38:39 - 17:56:19Leaving aside his links to the Alex mafia. Anthony GinsbergLook, I'm sitting there in Beverly Hills. I'm not an expert on why Jo'burg is gone down the tubes. They seem to have been 5 or 6 or haven't ever. Many mayors. I can't really address that, Alec. I'm sorry. I'm not qualified other than to say on the trade story.17:56:21 - 18:14:30He's been embracing people like myself and others to try and help. So the guy, it seems to me that this is good goodwill. That's all I can say. Alec HoggOkay, so he's honest?Anthony GinsbergPersonally speaking at 2:00 in the morning when the whatsapps come? Yes. So I've had no issues. Alec HoggHis engagement with you has been of an honest man.Anthony Ginsberg 18:14:30 - 18:43:06Yes, sir. Alec HoggOkay, so, Renee, the key is not like we lawyers. No, no, we're not in court. Anthony I promise you, Brit. Joshua, his question is, are there any AI or tech companies in Africa that we should look out for? Anthony GinsbergWell, there are a few, but it's mostly in the fintech space. So you've obviously seen what's happened in Kenya, where half of the economy through, telecoms essentially M-Pesa, right.18:43:06 - 19:02:42Alec have actually taken over half the Kenyan economy is now pretty much on the telephone. Can I just say the genetic AI is amazing what it can do. There's a difference between the agent or a genetic AI and just the regular sort of chat bots. It's a hell of exciting out there. You guys have to embrace the technology.19:02:46 - 19:22:15Just to give you an idea, if you and I were running late for a meeting and there were two others who were coming to that meeting, you think ChatGPT is great, but what Claudine can actually do is they'll just behind the scenes, say, Alec's running ten minutes late, they'll contact all fo five people in that t was meeting and reschedule for tomorrow at 3 p.m., because they know that your outlook and my outlook are empty at 3 p.m. tomorrow.19:22:26 - 19:48:31So, look, that's a silly example in my wealth management space. And AI is becoming more and more mainstream. I know Cy touched on it briefly. In our index world, we can customise, portfolios and the actual genetic. I can actually say, look, this gentleman is 65 and he had a heart attack, three years ago. He's different to a 65 year old who is healthy and who's going to me every day this customised portfolio.19:48:31 - 20:14:24So it's coming. We've actually invested, you know, private equity space in AI, wealth management. It's coming first and first. Jamie Diamond at quickly at JP Morgan. Alec HoggNo no no no no you're not going back into that. When the question was very simple. Are they African or not enough ?Anthony GinsbergNo no not enough Alec HoggAndrew Van Damme says can't the other members of the gene you get an ambassador appointed in the US while wait for Cyril?Anthony Ginsberg 20:14:28 - 20:35:37Okay. There's an elite group of South Africans. Yeah, they know more about it than I do. All I can tell you is get one. Get one quickly because it deals there and it will help everybody. My main thing about the deal is not so much reducing the tariffs. Yes, that's what everyone focuses on. It's this mountain of $1 trillion of capital that's ready to come from Wall Street.20:35:37 - 20:55:29My mates on Wall Street, I go there these once every 6 to 8 weeks. They want to invest in this country. For them. It's a is the primary Africa location. We all hear that Africans are going to be maybe a quarter to a half of the world's population, depending on if we go back 50 years, I think we'll be 40% of the world's population by something like 2080.20:55:33 - 21:25:18They want to invest here. Now, you heard from the ambassador is coming. AWS is coming, visas is here. Alec HoggBut but where do they want to invest way. They're not going to fix our pipes. They're not going to fix our distribution system. Where, will the investment that trillion dollars go?Anthony Ginsberg As long as you can tell them that the property is not going to be expropriated and that they don't have to worry about level ones to level 4 of BEE, and they're almost 600 American companies actually operating here now.21:25:30 - 21:47:16They work fine, whether it's a skills levy or threading the needle some other way, it can be done. They don't mind paying, for social responsibility projects or skills levy. Just don't ask Elon or other guys to give away 50% or more of his business. Alec HoggDavid Turnbull once did. And he says, why make a deal with Trump if he's likely to be a lame duck from November?21:47:25 - 22:09:33Okay, Trump will never be a lame duck even if he loses the midterms. What does that mean? We've got two houses in Congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate. He will not lose the Senate. I'm happy to say it right here. You you may well lose the House, but he's not a lame duck. So what it means is, okay, it'll be a bit trickier to pass budgets, but the president has got immense, immense power.22:09:37 - 22:32:48And he'll triangulate. Meaning what Clinton did years ago. He'll strike deals with the lower House of Representatives and get deals done. I am worried about these sanctions bills. You didn't ask me about Ronnie Jackson or Senator Kennedy. Alec HoggSo tess about them. Anthony GinsbergYou know what? It's quite scary. The people in this room who may be very happy about these pending Magnitsky sanctions bills.22:33:02 - 22:52:22I've actually got Bill Browder, on speed dial to, you know, Bill, because..Alec HoggYou got me on speed dial. I feel quite privileged. Anthony GinsbergNo, no, no. And Bill says we need more these Magnitsky kind of act rules to go after individuals. He did that with the Russians, right? Yeah. I think it's again, it's a shot across the bow.22:52:26 - 23:12:07I don't think Ronnie Jackson actually wants the bill to pass. If we can actually wake up, the current government here, these are all shots across the bill. Senator Kennedy himself said in the Senate just about a month ago. We're happy to get it. Go it done. If South Africa comes to the party, AGOA has only been renewed for one year, which is..Alec Hogg 23:12:07 - 23:35:33So are these scarecrows, are they just threats? They're not actually intended to be followed through. Anthony GinsbergThey are loud messages that have to be passed. These bills have to go, not just do one committee that didn't have to go through the full Senate or the full House. It generally would take anywhere from 9 to 12 months. And there's no guarantee because you got a very, very busy, legislative calendars there.Alec Hogg 23:35:34 - 23:58:14So the ANC is right to ignore it. And they are ignoring...Anthony GinsbergNo, no, no, Alec Hogg because they haven't they haven't given the Americans a response for a year. And as you said, the Americans hate being ignored. But in this case, why why bother? Anthony GinsbergYou know, warning these are warning bells. No other country I know has got two bills pending in both the Senate and the House of Representatives sanctions bills.23:58:18 - 24:15:17It means that that Wall Street money I was telling you about is scared to actually come to the country right now. So he has the ANC needs to focus group because Wall Street will not send the money here. There could be a as I keep saying, a ton of money coming, but if you got sanction bills pending it puts people off.24:15:29 - 24:41:05So okay, Mr. Major, sitting there with the mining industry as well. It's very sad. Alec HoggTian wants to know how seriously should South Africans take the US South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act and could it realistically lead to sanctions or economic consequences for South Africa? We're not talking the individual sanctions. This is more the nation as a whole.24:41:09 - 25:03:43So look, President Trump, you know, not only is he a charismatic man, I've met him once. He's also unpredictable. At a certain point, he gets gaartful, he doesn't use that word, but he's getting more and more gaartful every bloody month that he's not engaging with the South Africans. He's asking friends of mine, when are you sending an ambassador to the country?25:03:47 - 25:25:33Who can we engage with to get this thing across the line? And for them, it's not purely just a narrow trade deal. There's geopolitics here, too. It's Simon's Town, it's southern Africa. Thank God Mr. Bozell is finally here. It took way too long for him to actually be appointed. I know it's only been three weeks, but South Africa can't rely on Ambassador Bozell as the only interlocutor.25:25:33 - 25:44:25We need experts over there. And I just quickly, if you look at what the Mexicans have done in the Koreans, they bring trade delegations every month. It's the top, top names that we all know from the private sector who are coming for 3 or 4 days of meetings to get these deals across the line. The UK deal didn't happen in a vacuum.25:44:25 - 26:12:46You had top, top leaders coming across to get it done. We've got to actually put the the energy in, you know. Alec HoggDerek Brutus asks. Hi Anthony. Great talk highlighting the importance of indexing. Could you give us a feel from your perspective, a brief outline of the disruption that AI will bring to the South African economy and jobs which not many people are focused on?Anthony Ginsberg 26:13:00 - 26:34:26Okay, this one made me very popular because I know you've got an Eskom and an electricity crisis. Yeah, the issue with AI is the amount of data usage that is being built out in the US. I don't think SA can actually keep pace with it because of your grid issues. I'm not an expert at all. I'm I'm worried about it because how on earth if you barely keeping the lights on?26:34:30 - 26:56:06You know, I know the load shedding is somewhat over history now, but if you have this build out that the Yanks are doing, I don't think SA can actually cope. I think the grid would get overloaded. So sadly to say so I Africa is not going to be on the front foot. We have to probably outsource some of our, AI globally for the moment.26:56:15 - 27:14:24It's incredibly positive to hear the Eskom chairman yesterday saying that he wants to embrace AI. It's going to be good for South Africa. You know, Alec HoggWe're going to become the bitcoin mining hub of the world. Anthony GinsbergYou could you could be you got to remember for me, when I hear about AI, I'm thinking about cloud computing growing at 50% a year.27:14:34 - 27:32:27I'm thinking about cybersecurity growing at about 22% compound per year. I'm thinking about robotaxis in Beverly Hills, where I live on the right hand side in Beverly Hills. When I pull up to a robot or I should call to a traffic light, my wife always corrects me. There's a robotaxi with a robot on my right hand side and on my left hand side.27:32:27 - 27:54:14My daughter is much more comfortable riding in a Waymo Jaguar with a robot as a young woman and most females today. Then in an Uber who wants to be a female driving at 11:00 at night from the airport.Alec HoggSell Uber, sell Uber shares. Anthony GinsbergWell, Mr. Musk has actually got another story there because he's going to have, self-driving cars and he already has.27:54:14 - 28:20:07I have mate in the States who are using self-driving cars already. Look, I it's not going to take over the world is going to make us more efficient is going to reduce costs. And yes, there will be some areas of perhaps unemployment where you see certain computer programmers. The entry level guys may not needed as much as before, but you still need brains to actually operate these AI systems at the end of the day.28:20:07 - 28:43:29So I'm much more optimistic is going to get us into the fourth industrial, even fifth industrial revolution. So I'm not as negative. That is taking away jobs. There's going to be a time element where there will be changes. It may take 3 to 4 years for this switch switchover. Alec HoggAnd just to explain what's going on with anthropic and the cold case, then the fact with the Defense Department ?Anthony GinsbergWhy do you have to ask me all these tough questions, man?28:43:35 - 29:07:05No, no, it came through that territory from someone else. Okay. The bottom line is don't get too worried about the anthropic anthropic, basically are very smart guys. They didn't want the Defense Department in the US or the Pentagon to use their system in an unfiltered manner. They've got safeguards on their systems, so that lethal weapons, these are the some of the defense stuff that we actually invest in.29:07:09 - 29:33:12They want human interaction to make sure that these weapons are controlled. They also want monitoring of Americans to be somewhat overseen by individuals. They didn't want the robots to run ragged on their own. So the point of the anthropic case is that they wanted to maintain these safeguards on both human monitoring and also on, lethal defense weapons, which lethal defense...29:33:16 - 29:56:40That's the new way of the world. That's the other New world order. You look at Ukraine and the drone warfare under the Republicans. Quickly, Alec, Trump is outsourcing more and more of the government it spent, whether it's cloud, cybersecurity, AI. That's what Reagan did. That's what the Republicans do. They're much more business friendly. That's unleashing the economy. That's why we're probably going to see huge earnings per share size looking over there.29:56:40 - 30:17:34They're going to be companies that are going to have 15 to 20% earnings per share gains. Oracle last night 1:00 in the morning announced massive gains in their cloud business of about 44% Alec HoggShare price, up 89%. If you listen to the business daybreak, you would get that. Thank you. Okay. Sydney place. Yeah.30:17:34 - 30:40:29As a top investor, I'm sure you remember Sydney. What are American investors aiming to invest in in South Africa? Name some industries or sectors, please. Otherwise, this all sounds like the mythical millions that have regularly loomed on the horizons over the decades. Some specifics please. Anthony GinsbergYou're testing me on my history. The Kruger millions. This is not the Kruger millions, man.30:40:33 - 31:05:16Can I just say I love Sydney's so, Sydney. You know what? It's a hell of a tough question to answer. The Americans, do you see South Africa as a low cost offshore center. Whether it's for admin, for processing, for customer service, that will always still remain. Look, it's a long haul destination for manufacturing. I think what upsets me in your latest GDP numbers in my friends on Wall Street said this just overnight.31:05:16 - 31:42:49To me, they say Ant Africans are clapping that they got 1.1% GDP growth. But your manufacturing industry in your construction industry with both -19 construction shrank by 4%. Then the Yanks can come in here and help you on cybersecurity. They can actually upgrade various police systems, crime fighting systems. There are actually guys who've got huge contracts with the American government who are desperate to come in and help the SA government, whether it's on policing, whether it's what's going on in Mitchells Plain, which is not too far off where I grew up on the tech side, Sydney, they can actually come in here and upgrade a lot of our systems.31:42:49 - 32:02:21So I think cloud, cybersecurity, even AI, the guys understand that they can speak. It's easier for them to speak English. It's a much more attractive place to come. In many ways. It's a much bigger market in a place like Rwanda, which gets a hell of a lot of attention. I'm very jealous of my friends from Rwanda. They get amazing press in America.32:02:21 - 32:22:14Their ambassadors are good. They got trade delegations every other week. And you know, it's a bit of a trade hospital for me to see how a small country like Rwanda can be so well treated by the Yanks. And then we are at the back of the bus Alec HoggNext question is Anthony's views on Chinese tech and AI developments.Anthony Ginsberg 32:22:14 - 32:44:02Please don't ignore China. We actually own Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, BYD. Remember you have a sprint to the internet, which means that the Yanks like Uber, Google just can't get into China. So we thought it was always very short sighted to invest in these tech funds. And then some are offered in South Africa, there are only 100%, us.32:44:06 - 33:06:26The US doesn't have a monopoly on brains. Things like robotics. We talked about AI at all. But but even cloud now growing in many ways foster in parts of Asia. So we're actually on the narrow I getting into the politics on the tech side Chinese investing in quantum computing, even defense tech as well. So we're not ignoring an addict.33:06:26 - 33:28:33To be blunt, we have China at about 12% in one of our main megatrend funds, by the way, Korea, Japan, because of their demographics, they've been ahead of the Yangtze, the Yangtze were actually quite lazy under NAFTA. Ross Perot had a good saying, the giant sucking sound to Mexico. And he was right, actually, even though he didn't win the election, America Ford Motor, Qualcomm, GM, Chrysler.33:28:33 - 33:49:24Very quickly they outsourced a huge amount of manufacturing to a cheap location. It killed off a lot of the manufacturing plants in America. The middle class was partly hollowed out. This is coming back to the revenge of the middle class. So bottom line is that's changing. America doesn't want to lose, and have that giant sucking sound anymore.33:49:24 - 34:21:12Trump's actually offshoring. And the offshoring will be more automated, more and more of these guys like GM and Chrysler are bringing manufacturing back, and it's going to be automated. Americans were never at the level of of the Mercedes and the BMW. So to be blunt, the Japanese car companies, the Germans were much more automated. The Yanks were finally looking, as we say.Alec HoggDenver ver Marge wants to know, do you have a view on the chances of South Africa negotiating around those five main issues to do a deal?34:21:16 - 34:48:32South Africa's government have made it clear they won't bend on these. Anthony GinsbergNo one's asking South Africa's government to change, and to remove BEE. overnight or even this EWC which people talk about the Yanks specifically, which is why the way we talk about America is our second largest trading partner for South Africa. But they create many more jobs here in trade and value, and then the Chinese do.34:48:32 -35:10:16So yes, China may be slightly larger as a trading partner, but it's not been officiated goods. It's not value added goods like with the Yanks. Yeah. There's so many more jobs. It's almost 300,000 jobs being created already with the Americans. It could be double, as the ambassador said. So I think if I've answered your question directly Alec.Alec HoggNo you said the South Africans are pragmatic.35:10:20 - 35:34:11You know, Pakistan. I hope you're not going to you're going to down that hill. You know, it's Pakistan's pragmatic. He's on your speed dial. He's your friend. He's a good guy. He's honest. He knows those five areas. Are they going to be pressed sufficiently, make pragmatic to negotiate that with the Americans and not just ignore? Anthony GinsbergYes, I think they want to actually strike the deal.35:34:11 - 35:57:47But when it comes to BEE, America just wants their companies to be insured by city and for their real property. They don't want this EWC to be a noose around their neck. So I think for Americans, why can't we, as we say, strike it? It's up to us. Striking a deal is actually threading the needle on CNBC. Those American guys came here 25, 35 years ago.35:57:47 - 36:16:33The Microsofts of the world, the IBM's maintain that kind of relationship, but don't drive them nuts. With too many regulations, you've got to be far more foreign direct investment friendly in this country. It's not just about Americans. It's about Europeans coming here, Germans, others coming here. They want to come. You've got to create an environment. And we all know this.36:16:45 - 36:34:42That is low tax and friendly. Who wants to come to a country when you can go to a hundred other places around the world? I think it's not necessarily pork so much. It's people of good intent. It's people in this audience. They can step up to the plate. I know Rob wants them to shout from the rooftops politically.36:34:42 - 36:56:18I want them to shout from the rooftops, economically and trade wise. Push for a trade envoy, push for trade, delegations to come to the states. You can get it done. You guys are immensely powerful. Don't change yourselves. Americans want to see people like you come and embrace a deal. They don't understand why this has been a lack of engagement.36:56:18 - 37:19:14Trump wants South Africans are coming to the Oval Office, I've heard it directly. So let's fast pace and get it done. Alec HoggJust to close off with those of us who've been around a while. We'll remember that the American companies did leave South Africa. It was a disinvestment wave in the late 80s, which made a lot of South Africans very wealthy.37:19:18 - 37:53:25Now, perhaps to be Machiavellian about this, if you are controlling the levers of the economy, what would be better than to irritate the combative president in the United stations sufficiently that he says American companies, all 500 disinvest like you did in the 80s, which would then give beautiful opportunities for the connected cadres. Anthony GinsbergYes. Like, I hope that's not the intention, because when I left here in the late 80s, I didn't recognise one American product.37:53:25 - 38:12:04When I went over to New York. All the chocolates, all the candies. I mean, these are silly things to talk about. They had all been sanctioned. So I get over there, all the yogurts, everything I, I realise that my country had been stuck in, sort of, a parallel universe like the Iranians do. We really want to be like Iran, for God's sake?38:12:14 - 38:33:08So really, the question is, I'm not saying America is going to bomb us, but do you want to be a third rate or a fourth rate? Alec HoggNobody in this room once, because nobody in this room is going to benefit, you know, but nobody in this room's making the rules. That's my point. Those who are making the rules, these pragmatic individuals may be thinking differently to you and I.38:33:08 - 38:54:19And that's why I really wanted to find out your pragmatism or your perception of the pragmatism. Is that based on on something deep, or is it just an a gut feeling ?Anthony Ginsbergyou know, the deepness is they want to grow the pie? We all understand if this GDP can just get up to two and a half, 3%, the amount of wealth it can be generated.38:54:19 - 39:11:09Yeah, everybody, it's not just those little Okies who are going to benefit if the Yanks run away. Everybody benefits. You've got to grow the economic pie, Alec Hoggyou know that I know that. But if that are you or do you sense that there is a there is a belief Anthony GinsbergThey want to grow what they seem to be. And how do we get to three 4% GDP growth a year?39:11:13 - 39:30:22You've got to open your border. You've got to be a lot more business friendly and wake up and embrace not just American capitalism. Embrace from around the world. And again, don't provide rules that don't make sense. The Chinese can come in here. They don't seem to have BEE impact. The rules seem to be very different sometimes we're an American firm that comes in.39:30:28 - 39:47:36Trump just wants, fairness. They keep talking about fairness. Why should they be 2 or 3 sets of different rules? Let's be fair and pragmatic and and get the deal across the line in the next three months. Please God.Alec HoggIt's been so interesting talking to you, Anthony. Thank you for being so open and honest.

Members Only: BNC#8 Anthony Ginsberg Q&A - Inside the $tn deal, US tensions and urgent call to act

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