The 12 Day War that changed the Middle East for good - Kenneth Mokgatlhe

Key topics:Iran’s role in planning Hamas’ 7 Oct attack deepens regional conflictIsrael targets Iran-backed Hamas, Hezbollah; morale rises, Iran weakensCeasefire with Hezbollah brings brief calm; Iran faces internal unrest.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..By Kenneth Mokgatlhe*.The political outlook of the Middle East region shifted enormously after Hamas’ surprise attack on the State of Israel on the morning of the 7th October 2023, which coincided with the Sabbath and the festival of Simchat Torah. 1,200 Israelis were brutally killed, and 250 were taken hostage. The Israel Defence Force (IDF) has been waging a military campaign to force Hamas to release the remaining 50 hostages. The nuances of the Israel-Palestine conflict must be understood within the context of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s influence, sometimes called the Israel-Iran Cold War or the Israel-Iran Proxy War. Throughout the years, Iran has supported, financed, and trained terror groups and states in the Middle East in the quest to destroy Israel. Although Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dismissed his country’s role in the Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, Iran was deeply involved in the planning and the execution of this attack. They knew that Israel was going to be attacked, and they enabled it to happen. In the north of Israel, they had prepared Hezbollah to overwhelm the Israeli military and defence system, taking advantage of the stress that the Hamas action would place on the Israeli Defence Forces, population and government. Beyond its ideological ambition to eliminate the State of Israel, Iran also aspires to extend its regional influence and establish itself as a dominant power in the Middle East. In its 46 years of power, this ferocious regime has not improved the lives of ordinary Iranians. As such, they became unpopular and resorted to force to maintain control. This oil-rich country has dismally failed to address high inflation, currency devaluation, and unemployment since 1979. The Islamic Republic of Iran often instrumentalises the tensions or conflict with the Jewish State as a diversionary tactic to deflect attention from domestic issues such as administrative mismanagement, nepotism, and corruption.In the past 20 months, Israel has had to put deterrent measures against those who would plot to attack it in the future by teaching a lesson to proxies of Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah. In Hamas, they decapitated Hamas by targeting its senior leaders, such as Yahya Sinwar, Hassan Nasrallah, Ismail Haniyeh, and many others, who masterminded the October 7th attack, and continuously endangered Israeli civilian lives. An argument that Hamas cannot completely be eradicated may be true, but we have seen that they are disorganised and disenfranchised, and it may take them many years to reorganise..Read more:.US strike on Iran escalates conflict and ignites fears of wider war.Daily Hezbollah attacks against the north of Israel forced tens of thousands of Israelis to flee northern villages. Israel thus took the fight to Hezbollah, which was caught off guard. The military operation involving the bulky pager that detonated in the hands of Hezbollah gunmen not only exposed operational vulnerabilities within the terror group but also underscored the sophistication of Israeli intelligence capabilities.A ceasefire has since been established between Israel and Hezbollah, which has allowed both Israelis and Lebanese to return to their homes.Lebanon, which has experienced prolonged instability largely due to the influence of Hezbollah since the early 1980s, elected a new president and prime minister earlier this year—an event that renewed hopes among many Lebanese citizens for the restoration of a prosperous and inclusive state reminiscent of the pre-Hezbollah era. Hezbollah, backed by Iran, played a pivotal role in the 1985–1988 Lebanese civil war and has since been widely regarded as a major impediment to Lebanon’s socio-economic development and a persistent threat to regional security, particularly to Israel.For those unfamiliar with the history, Iran and Israel maintained strong diplomatic and economic ties before the 1979 Iranian Revolution. However, following the establishment of the Islamic Republic under a theocratic regime, Iran adopted an ideology that positioned the United States and Israel as principal adversaries—a stance that persists to this day. Israel’s longstanding concern has centred on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a concern substantiated by credible intelligence sources. The fear remains that, once fully realised, Iran's nuclear capabilities could be used to target Israel, especially given the regime’s explicit declarations calling for the destruction of the Jewish state.In 2003, several Western democracies, including the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, initiated diplomatic negotiations with Iran aimed at curbing its nuclear enrichment programme. Successive U.S. administrations also engaged with Tehran in various diplomatic efforts. However, these initiatives have largely failed to produce a sustainable resolution, particularly from the perspective of fostering a peaceful, stable, and secure Middle East region.The fall of the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad in Syria, following a bloody civil war, was enabled by the regional dynamics, especially the external influence of Israel, which aggressively challenged the status quo in the area following the October 7 attacks. The collapse of Assad is yet to lay out the foundations for a democratic Syria, which people on the ground are longing to see. The October 7 attacks have undeniably marked a turning point in the historical trajectory of the Middle East, significantly reshaping the region's political, economic, and security dynamics. Israel’s subsequent 12-day confrontation with Iran revealed notable weaknesses within the Iranian military apparatus. While both states are likely to declare some form of victory—as is characteristic of military propaganda—Israel succeeded in directly engaging its primary strategic adversary and targeting key components of Iran’s nuclear programme.Although civilians in both countries remain anxious about the future, Israel’s national morale appears comparatively higher, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu experiencing a surge in political support. In contrast, the Islamic Republic of Iran is facing a crisis of legitimacy and waning popular support. Public dissatisfaction is mounting, and it has become increasingly evident that the regime's hold on power is growing tenuous amid widespread impatience and socio-political unrest..*Kenneth Mokgatlhe is a political analyst and consultant.

The 12 Day War that changed the Middle East for good - Kenneth Mokgatlhe

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