Inside Covid-19: Life may only return to normal in 7 years; long Covid and your sense of smell; travel outlook

Around 65% of people with coronavirus lose their sense of smell and taste and it’s estimated that about 10% of those go on to develop rare conditions that create havoc. Parosmia means you can find human waste smells like food and vice versa. So what causes parosmia? We spoke to Reading University flavour scientist Dr Jane Parker who is undertaking in-depth research on Covid-19 and parosmia. Also coming up in this programme: the long term effects of Covid-19 on the travel and tourism industries, with warnings that life may only return to normal in 7 years at today’s vaccine rates. We hear from Christopher Nassetta, President & CEO, Hilton on the outlook for the hotel industry in 2021. – Jackie Cameron

Inside Covid-19 headlines:

• Global Tracker: Cases exceed 104.9 million; deaths near 2.3 million.
• Vaccine Tracker: More than 119 million shots given worldwide.
• South Africa 45,344 deaths; 1.5m positive tests.
• When will life return to normal? In 7  years at today’s vaccine rates, says Bloomberg. It has built the biggest database of Covid-19 shots given around the world, and says more than 119 million doses have been administered worldwide. US science officials such as Anthony Fauci have suggested it will take 70% to 85% coverage of the population for things to return to normal. Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker shows that some countries are making far more rapid progress than others, using 75% coverage with a two-dose vaccine as a target.
• Israel, the country with the highest vaccination rate in the world, is headed for 75% coverage in just two months. The US will get there just in time to ring in the 2022 New Year (though North Dakota could get there six months sooner than Texas). With vaccinations happening more rapidly in richer Western countries than the rest of the globe, it will take the world as a whole seven years at the current pace.
• The pace is likely to accelerate further as more vaccines become available. Some of the world’s biggest vaccine-manufacturing hubs in India and Mexico are only just getting started. More than 8.5 billion doses of vaccine have been contracted by countries through more than 100 agreements tracked by Bloomberg. Only a third of countries have even begun their vaccination campaigns.
• Vaccinations protect against Covid-19 within a few weeks of getting the shots. But if just a few people in a community get vaccinated, the virus can continue to spread unchecked, says Bloomberg. As more people get the vaccine, groups of people start to build a collective defense against the virus so that isolated sparks of infection burn out instead of spreading into an outbreak. The concept is known as herd immunity.
• In the scientific community, there are conflicting definitions for when herd immunity is achieved. Is it when enough people are protected that it begins to have a measurable effect on the speed of transmission? That could begin well before 75% of people are fully vaccinated. Others define it as the point when outbreaks can no longer be sustained. For example, even if there’s a cluster of measles cases in an unvaccinated community, herd immunity prevents it from rippling across a country.
• A new vaccine by Johnson & Johnson recently showed positive results using a single dose in a large clinical trial. If approved, we’ll adjust the number of doses required proportionate to its market share in each country.
• Russian vaccine developers are in discussions with China’s CanSino Biologics to test a combination of their shots aimed at better results. The UK will require travellers arriving from coronavirus hotspots to quarantine in hotels starting Feb. 15, almost three weeks after the plan was announced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
• India is set to receive the largest number of Covid-19 vaccine doses in the initial distribution from the World Health Organisation’s Covax initiative, despite the fact that the country’s current supply of shots outstrips demand. The Senate voted 51-50, after U. Vice President Kamala Harris broke her first tie, to adopt a budget blueprint for President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion virus relief package — following nearly 15 hours of wading through amendments from both parties.
• Italy is planning to begin its vaccination campaign for people under 55 years of age on Tuesday, Ansa news agency reported. The first doses from AstraZeneca are due to arrive Saturday, virus emergency chief Domenico Arcuri said Friday.
• German authorities called for trust and wide use of all three Covid-19 vaccines approved in Europe, with rollout of the AstraZeneca Plc shot planned to start this weekend. Germany will use the Astra shot for people aged 64 and younger, while older people continue to get vaccinations from partners Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE and Moderna Inc. “This will enable us to double our vaccinations in February,” Health Minister Jens Spahn said at a press conference in Berlin, though he warned that shortages of shots will continue until the second quarter.
• Poland will reopen hotels, cinemas, theatres and operas at up to 50% capacity for a two-week trial period starting Feb. 12, While the reopening will also include outdoor sport facilities such as ski slopes and tennis courts, restaurants and fitness clubs remain closed.
• Using patient data, artificial intelligence can make a 90% accurate assessment of whether a person will die from Covid-19 or not, according to new research at the University of Copenhagen. Body mass index, gender and high blood pressure are among the most heavily weighted factors. The research can be used to predict the number of patients in hospitals, who will need a respirator and determine who ought to be first in line for a vaccination.
• China quelled the coronavirus by deploying its authoritarian system to get things done: from building hospitals in days, to blitz-testing entire cities and basically sealing off its vast border. So when it came time to roll out its home-grown vaccines, the world expected an effort of similar speed and ferocity. But seven weeks into China’s vaccination campaign, the picture is surprisingly underwhelming. The more than 31.2 million doses administered since its official start date of Dec. 15 put it second only to the US, with its nearly 35 million shots. Yet for a population of 1.4 billion, China has delivered a little more than two doses for every 100 people, compared to three in the European Union, 10 in the US and nearly 60 in Israel, according to Bloomberg’s vaccine tracker.
• Fresh off global validation of their Covid-19 vaccine’s extraordinary effectiveness, Russian developers are in talks with China’s CanSino Biologics to test a combined regimen of their shots to better protect against new virus strains, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Russian Direct Investment Fund, a partner in the Sputnik V vaccine program, forged a preliminary agreement with the Tianjin-based vaccine developer and Petrovax Pharm, owned by billionaire Vladimir Potanin, to conduct tests in Russia, four people said, declining to be identified as the information isn’t public. Petrovax is Cansino’s Russian partner.
• Israel’s cabinet voted overnight to extend the country’s lockdown to Sunday morning from Friday, and agreed to begin gradually reopening parts of the economy next week. Starting Feb. 7, restrictions on movement will be lifted while certain businesses will be able to reopen. Ministers will meet Sunday to further discuss the country’s exit plan from its third lockdown.
• Israel, with the highest proportion of citizens vaccinated against Covid-19 in the world, found it took three weeks for the Pfizer Inc.-BioNTech SE shot to start curbing new cases and hospitalisations. Researchers in the Middle Eastern country reported preliminary observations Wednesday from a national immunisation program that began Dec. 20. Improvement in the number of new cases and hospitalised patients occurred 21 days following the vaccination campaign, the scientists said, noting that the real-life effect of vaccines may take longer than what was demonstrated in clinical trials.
• French Prime Minister Jean Castex said it’s not possible to ease Covid-19 restrictions yet, but the situation doesn’t justify imposing a fresh lockdown. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in an interview with RTL Media Group it’s still too soon to ease the lockdown in Europe’s largest economy, even as the pandemic shows signs of ebbing. She’ll meet regional German leaders next week to discuss whether to continue current restrictions, which include shuttered bars, restaurants and most retailers, beyond Feb. 14.
• Until vaccines are widely available, weekly Covid-19 testing plus a two-week isolation period for positive cases may be the most cost-effective strategy to tackle the spread of the virus in the US when transmission is high, a study by The Lancet found. Even monthly testing across the US, requiring 12 million tests a day, would be more cost-effective than the current approach of testing only people with symptoms and their close contacts, the medical journal said.
• Ursula von der Leyen said she underestimated the complications that can arise in the production of coronavirus vaccines, Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported, citing an interview with the European Commission president. “We focused very much on the development of a vaccine,” she said. “In retrospect, we should have thought more about the challenges of mass production in parallel.”
• The Philippines will make it mandatory to wear masks inside all vehicles, even for passengers from the same household, the Transport and Health Departments said in a statement. Only drivers traveling alone may remove masks, while violators face fines, according to the statement. Brazil in talks to buy 20 million more doses of the Sinovac Biotech coronavirus vaccine, Reuters reported, citing an interview with Sao Paulo governor Joao Doria. The order will be on top of 100 million vaccine doses secured by Butantan biomedical institute, Doria said.
• UK variant found in Melbourne before Australian Open. More than 500 members of the Australian Open tennis cohort received negative Covid-19 test results Friday after a quarantine hotel worker contracted the virus. Host city Melbourne had all but eliminated the virus until a local case of the B.1.1.7 variant was detected in a worker at a hotel where players quarantined. The isolation for more than 24 hours of players, officials and support staff who were staying at the Grand Hyatt added to already disrupted preparation for the tournament, which begins Feb. 8.
• India is set to receive the largest number of Covid-19 vaccine doses – 97.2 million shots – in the first tranche of distribution from the World Health Organisation’s Covax initiative, despite the fact that supply in the country currently appears to outstrip demand. The Covax initiative, aimed at creating equitable global access to Covid vaccines especially for developing countries, is planning to distribute 337.2 million doses at the end of this month, the first delivery of some 2 billion shots it’s ordered so far. The large allocation to India is likely to raise eyebrows given that the country currently seems to have plenty of shots, but few takers. Only around half of those eligible to get vaccinated in its inoculation drive have come forward, and local media reports say that India producer Serum Institute of India is sitting on over 55 million doses and has temporarily halted production.
• Myanmar is set to kick off vaccination for the general public Friday, starting with townships with the highest number of infections and mortality rate, according to Khin Khin Gyi, director of emerging infectious disease at the Ministry of Health and Sports. The initial phase will prioritise those 65 and above. Myanmar’s military, which seized power in a coup earlier this week, has vowed to inoculate 38.4 million people, 18 and older by the end of this year. The administration expects the first batch of 30 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine ordered from the Serum Institute of India to arrive next week and 27 million doses from the Covax facility from March.
• The UK will require travellers from coronavirus hotspots to quarantine starting Feb. 15, the government said, adding flesh to a policy first announced last month. Arrivals from countries on the UK’s travel ban list will be required to isolate for 10 days in government-approved accommodation, the Department for Health and Social Care said Thursday. The government is seeking bids from hotels near airports and ports to support the program.
• China donated 200,000 doses of coronavirus vaccines to Zimbabwe, which will help kick-start the government’s roll-out of inoculations, President Emmerson Mnangagwa said. “Covid-19 vaccines which have been scientifically ascertained to be safe will soon be introduced,” Mnangagwa said in a televised address Thursday. “These will be state-funded and free.” His comments came a day after Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube told state media that citizens would be expected to pay for vaccines, with the government only covering the cost of doses for the most vulnerable groups. Ncube, later backtracked on the comments, saying they were “taken out of context.”
• Many people with Covid-19 temporarily lose their sense of smell. As they recover, it usually returns – but some are finding that things smell different, and things that should smell nice, such as food, soap, and their loved ones, smell repulsive. The numbers with this condition, known as parosmia, are constantly growing, but scientists are not sure why it happens, or how to cure it. A Facebook group set up by the smell loss charity, AbScent, has with 6,000 members. Nearly all had started with anosmia arising from Covid-19, and ended up with parosmia. “Common descriptors of the different parosmia smells include: death, decay, rotten meat, faeces,” says AbScent founder Chrissi Kelly, who set up the Facebook group in June after what she describes as a “tidal wave” of Covid-19 parosmia cases. People have used phrases like “fruity sewage”, “hot soggy garbage” and “rancid wet dog”. Some can’t even cope with the smell of tap water. We spoke to Dr Reading University flavour scientist Dr Jane Parker who is undertaking in-depth research on Covid-19 and parosmia.
• As coronavirus vaccines started rolling out late last year, there was a palpable sense of excitement. People began browsing travel websites and airlines grew optimistic about flying again. Ryanair Holdings Plc even launched a “Jab & Go” campaign alongside images of 20-somethings on holiday, drinks in hand. But, it’s not working out that way. For a start, it isn’t clear the vaccines actually stop travellers spreading the disease, even if they’re less likely to catch it themselves. Neither are the shots proven against the more-infectious mutant strains that have startled governments from Australia to the UK into closing, rather than opening, borders. An ambitious push by carriers for digital health passports to replace the mandatory quarantines killing travel demand is also fraught with challenges and has yet to win over the World Health Organisation. This bleak reality has pushed back expectations of any meaningful recovery in global travel to 2022. That may be too late to save the many airlines with only a few months of cash remaining. And the delay threatens to kill the careers of hundreds of thousands of pilots, flight crew and airport workers who’ve already been out of work for close to a year. Rather than a return to worldwide connectivity – one of the economic miracles of the jet era – prolonged international isolation appears unavoidable. Christopher Nassetta, President & CEO, Hilton speaks with Bloomberg QuickTake Chief Correspondent Jason Kelly at The Year Ahead virtual summit about the outlook for the hotel industry in 2021.