Orban's opposition to Ukraine aid strains EU and NATO relations

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban stands alone in opposing Western aid to Ukraine amidst Russia’s invasion. Orban vetoed substantial EU aid packages and resisted NATO support, citing concerns over corruption and arguing that assisting Ukraine prolongs conflict. His stance has frustrated allies, who view Russia as a significant threat. With Hungary’s EU presidency approaching, tensions are high as Europe questions Orban’s true allegiances and potential influence.

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By Zoltan Simon

Hungary’s prime minister is often the odd man out in the European Union and the NATO military alliance. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Viktor Orban has been essentially alone in pushing back against Western efforts to come to Kyiv’s aid. With the war now in its third year and Ukraine in dire need of assistance, the nationalist leader’s stonewalling is exasperating Hungary’s allies and raising questions about his government’s true allegiances. ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

1. What is Orban doing?

Last year, Orban vetoed a €50 billion ($54 billion) EU economic support package for Ukraine, citing graft concerns. He relented in February when his European partners called a special meeting to press him to drop his opposition. A month earlier, Hungary agreed to the creation of a €5 billion fund to smooth the EU’s supply of weapons to Ukraine. Now allies accuse Orban of going back on his word by holding up that money as well as a further €1.5 billion for weapons supplies. Hungary has also vowed to veto the EU’s 14th round of sanctions against Russia, and pushed back against a planned North Atlantic Treaty Organization package of support to Kyiv that would include training Ukrainian soldiers outside of Ukraine.

2. What’s his rationale for blocking aid to Ukraine?

Unlike most allies, Orban is friendly with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and argues that Russia doesn’t pose a military threat to the EU and NATO’s eastern flank, including Hungary. He considers Russia’s war on Ukraine to be a conflict between “two Slavic countries” and that supplying financing and weapons to Ukraine, a non-NATO country bordering Hungary, will only prolong and escalate the conflict. That’s led him to cast himself at home as effectively the only Western leader advocating for “peace,” while accusing the EU and NATO of warmongering.

3. What do Hungary’s allies say?

Other EU governments and NATO members believe Russia to be a clear and present danger that would only be emboldened by a military victory in Ukraine. Those concerns have driven Finland and Sweden to join NATO, which they managed to do only after overcoming Orban’s foot-dragging. They also led the EU to finance Ukraine’s economy and to replenish its dwindling weapons stocks after a failed counter-offensive last year opened the way for renewed assaults by Russia’s army. Orban’s stonewalling has prompted some of Hungary’s allies to question his allegiance, with some casting him as a Trojan horse for Putin.

4. What can the EU do about Orban?

Hungary has been a thorn in the EU and NATO’s side since Orban returned to power in 2010. He’s dismantled many of the nation’s democratic checks and balances, decried what he sees as a decline of Western civilization and established close ties with Russia and China. The EU in late 2022 suspended more than €30 billion of funding for Hungary due to concerns over the rule of law and corruption, and is still withholding two-thirds of that money. This has failed to bring Orban into line. Things may get trickier from July 1, when Hungary takes over the rotating six-month EU presidency. While Hungary has said it’ll seek to be an impartial broker, many in Europe will want to see that to believe it.

5. How might things go Orban’s way?

Orban has been hoping that far-right parties will make big gains in European Parliament elections in June, ushering in a legislature that’s more in tune with his world view. He has an ally in Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who returned to power last year by campaigning against EU institutions and arguing against military aid for Ukraine. Fico survived an assassination attempt in May. In the Netherlands, far-right leader Geert Wilders emerged as kingmaker in the formation of a new government and also wants to stop arming Ukraine. Orban has kept in close touch with Donald Trump, and said the former US president “will not give a penny” in military help to Ukraine if he wins reelection in November.

6. Can the EU and NATO skirt Orban?

That’s easier said than done. Both the EU and NATO are governed by treaties, and in both alliances the most important decisions require unanimous support. While there are efforts within the EU to extend majority voting, Hungary can still scupper crucial decisions and may even appeal to the bloc’s courts if Orban believes he’s been overruled unfairly. That said, with Ukraine’s defense entering a critical stage, Orban is coming under increasing pressure to relent. NATO’s chief last year convened a ministerial committee with Ukraine, disregarding Hungary’s yearslong objections to such a meeting.

7. Does Orban want to take Hungary out of the EU and NATO?

The short answer is no. Orban derives his influence in large part from Hungary’s membership in both organizations. The EU is crucial for the country’s economy, while NATO is essential to its security. That’s also why the likes of Russia and China shower Orban with attention. Hungary offers an entry point to the EU’s common market and lining up the country’s leader is a way to lobby — or sow divisions — inside the world’s largest trading bloc and military alliance. At the same time, Orban has said Hungary, which hasn’t adopted the euro currency, wants to opt out of any moves that would make the EU a more federal organization. And he’s talked about “redefining” NATO membership as well, to allow Hungary to stay out of the military alliance’s deepening support for Ukraine while maintaining access to Article 5, which requires all NATO nations to defend any member that comes under attack.

Read also:

The Reference Shelf

A QuickTake explainer on how the EU’s funding squeeze has failed to fix the bloc’s Orban problem, and another on the European Parliament vote.
Bloomberg stories on Orban’s attempt to “redefine” Hungary’s NATO membership and EU exasperation over Hungary’s blocking of Ukraine aid
Freedom House’s latest democracy scorecard and Transparency International’s annual corruption rankings

🔒 Orban’s opposition to Ukraine aid strains EU and NATO relations