Key topics
- Ukrainian support for Zelensky surges despite tensions with Trump.
- Ukrainians reject elections during war, back Zelensky’s stance.
- Poll shows Zelensky’s popularity surpasses Trump, despite Western pressure.
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From The Economist, published under licence. The original article can be found on www.economist.com
© 2025 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved.
The Economist ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Our poll of Ukrainians shows a surprising shift in the president’s ratings
Donald Trump delivered such a dressing-down to Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office at the end of last month that some thought the relationship would never recover. A potential ceasefire agreement struck on March 11th in Saudi Arabia may have brought them back from the brink. But in any case, the blow-up does not seem to have done the Ukrainian president much harm at home. Like Canada’s Mark Carney, Mr Zelensky is finding that being attacked by Mr Trump is great for one’s ratings. A new telephone poll by Ipsos of 1,000 Ukrainians, commissioned by The Economist, shows that he commands overwhelming support in the wake of his falling-out with Trumpland. More than seven in ten Ukrainians now say they approve of Mr Zelensky’s work. Eight in ten say he is still Ukraine’s legitimate president, and reject the idea of elections while fighting continues. Over seven in ten still trust him to lead negotiations. Even more striking, the poll suggests that Mr Zelensky would win an election if one were held today, with Valery Zaluzhny, his popular former top general, in distant second place.
Chart: The Economist
Our poll was conducted in the week following the White House showdown, a period that saw America withdraw first military aid and then offensive intelligence-sharing. (Both were restored after the latest talks in Saudi Arabia.) Despite the deteriorating outlook, it shows Ukrainians in a mood at least as stubborn as their president’s, favouring maximalist military aims that seem unachievable given Ukraine’s resources. A huge majority (74%) favour fighting on even without American support. A clear majority (59% v 21%) say they believe Ukraine can still win on the battlefield, in contrast to American officials such as Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, who say it cannot. A similar majority rejects any ceasefire until the West gives Ukraine military guarantees—the very situation that seems to be developing after the talks in Saudi Arabia.
Those talks covered possible Ukrainian concessions for peace. The data show Mr Zelensky’s public is reluctant to concede much. Of Russia’s probable demands, only renouncing Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO has net support: with 38% for and 37% against, a difference that is within the margin of error. Just 6% of Ukrainians would be willing to recognise Russian territorial gains since the full-scale invasion in 2022, though more might concede Crimea and the parts of eastern Ukraine which Russia seized in 2014 (11% and 27% respectively). Fully 80% oppose shrinking Ukraine’s armed forces, another probable Russian demand. A similar margin rejects drafting younger soldiers (70% v 17%), which might appear inconsistent with the resolve to keep fighting. Some Western officials have urged Ukraine to lower the draft age. But that remains very unpopular–except among men of pension age.
Chart: The Economist
The poll appears to justify Mr Zelensky’s headstrong stance at a moment of mounting American pressure. For weeks, Ukraine’s president was the target of an orchestrated offensive by Trump allies, including Vice-President J.D. Vance, Donald Trump junior and Elon Musk, the president’s billionaire adviser. Various MAGA personalities echoed Russian state propaganda by describing Mr Zelensky as a dictator for “cancelling elections.” At times Mr Trump himself led the invective. In February, he dismissed Mr Zelensky as a “moderately successful comedian” and a “dictator” with “very low” ratings, once falsely claiming he had just 4% support. Mr Vance suggested it was American policy to impose elections on Ukraine even during wartime.
The Economist commissioned the poll in part to test such assertions. Unsurprisingly, it shows they are wrong. The surprising part is just how wrong. Ukrainians are rallying around their president in ways that Mr Trump could only dream about. The poll finds that 72% of Ukrainians strongly or somewhat approve of their president’s job-performance; Mr Trump is at 46%, according to The Economist’s tracker. It also shows categorical opposition to elections during wartime. Ukrainians agree with Mr Zelensky’s view, stated in our recent interview with him, that holding elections while mobilised for war is logistically and legally impossible. A solid 62% reject elections until the war officially ends. Another 19% would consider them only during a ceasefire. Just 14% agree with the White House that they should take place as soon as possible.
Chart: The Economist
Far from giving Mr Zelensky a dignified way to leave office, an election would probably keep him in power, the poll suggests. The war has put competitive politics in Ukraine on hold, so the numbers are theoretical; they would shift in a real campaign. But they suggest Mr Zelensky would get many more first-round votes than his closest potential rival, Mr Zaluzhny (46% v 31%). Mr Zelensky’s strongest backing comes from women, young people and residents of Ukraine’s easternmost regions. Mr Zaluzhny is more popular among older voters, who tend to be belligerent and unwilling to compromise. Mr Zaluzhny was appointed ambassador to Britain in 2024 after falling out with Mr Zelensky. He has not said he would run in a future contest, though many expect him to.
Like any poll, ours is a snapshot of opinion at a specific time. It suggests an upsurge of patriotic support for the president. That does not mean his position is entirely secure. He cuts a lonely figure among the political elite, and he is under heavy pressure from America and Russia, as well as events on the front line. Many Ukrainians say corruption has grown during the war (43%). He almost certainly cannot deliver the decisive military victory most desire. Two-fifths say they expect the war to end within a year. Sooner or later, Ukraine’s president will face a difficult choice: make concessions and see his ratings tumble, or fight on and court the Americans’ anger.
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