Aid flotillas miss the point - Gaza’s future hinges on Netanyahu’s next move

Key topics:Israel intercepted Gaza aid yacht with Greta Thunberg, calling it a PR stuntGrowing internal dissent in Gaza challenges Hamas amid ongoing conflictNetanyahu faces political risks balancing war aims, coalition demands, and elections.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..By Marc Champion.Sometimes it takes a self-indulgent public-relations stunt to remind us of what’s important. Monday’s inevitably intercepted aid flotilla to Gaza was one of those occasions.As the organizers of the convoy intended, the detention of the Madleen — a yacht carrying irrelevant quantities of humanitarian aid — grabbed international headlines. Climate activist Greta Thunberg was among those held; in this made-for-selfies drama, she told followers she’d been “kidnapped” and called those watching to pressure the Swedish government into getting her released. That’s right: Call Sweden, help me.Israel’s PR machine whirred into action just as quickly. There was a pledge to make Thunberg and the rest of her “hate” flotilla watch film footage of the atrocities Hamas committed on Oct. 7, 2023. Photos appeared of Israeli soldiers handing the Madleen’s passengers water and buns. Quite frankly, a plague on them both.Here's what was happening at the same time that actually matters. There is, at long last, just a glimmer of hope for ending Gaza’s suffering, because the two villains behind the prolonging of the conflict — Hamas and the extremists of Israel’s coalition government — are both under growing stress.Hamas has reveled in the slaughter it brought upon Palestinians by the sheer savagery of its October terrorist spectacular. Yet there are growing signs of dissent within the strip. The arming of Palestinian clans organized under an umbrella called the Popular Forces to take on Hamas and protect aid distribution points faces enormous hurdles by association with Israel, but has provided that opposition with teeth.Hopes for Hamas’s marginalization remain faint; to succeed, this support for an alternative power base among Palestinians needs to be part of a much wider Israeli strategy that doesn’t, as yet, exist and would demand its military withdrawal. This has been missing since the start of the war, because almost any iteration would require offering ordinary Palestinians and Gulf State leaders some plausible hope for Gaza’s future. That would include the promise, no matter how distant, of a Palestinian state alongside Israel’s, as well as putting the Palestinian Authority in charge of Gaza.Neither is a step that the most right-wing government in Israel’s history is willing to take. But even Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the world’s great political survivors, may not be able escape for much longer the squeeze between what a majority of Israelis want and his coalition members are willing to accept. This is only in part about a growing desire among Israelis to prioritize ending the war and the return of all remaining hostages. The immediate risk to Netanyahu lies in coalition demands that he write into law the exemption from military service enjoyed by ultra-orthodox men who study the Torah. The strains of war, combined with explosive population growth among deeply religious so-called Haredi Jews has made this policy toxic among those who do have to serve. If he drives the legislation through, Netanyahu and his Likud party can kiss goodbye to re-election. If he doesn’t, the Shas party — a fellow member of the ruling coalition — threatens to force an early election anyhow. So Israel’s prime minister faces a choice. He can double down yet again on his tactic of expanding Israel’s multi-front war to distract attention from his failures in Gaza, this time by attacking Iran’s nuclear sites. He could go on letting ultra-right cabinet members such Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir define Israeli war aims in Gaza as “occupation, settlement and the encouragement of voluntary emigration” by its Palestinian population, as he did again last week.At home, Netanyahu can likewise just go on polarizing the nation and doing his level best to discredit the courts holding him to account over charges of fraud. Last week, Justice Minister Yariv Levin again promoted so-called reforms to resolve a non-existent war between judicial “tyranny” and “the people.” There is no judicial tyranny in Israel, only constitutionally mandated checks on executive abuse of power. There is no “people,” just the limited mandate Likud received from 23.4% of the Israeli electorate in 2022.The controversy over Haredi draft exemptions makes doubling down to retain power a risky political path for the prime minister, too. It could leave him holding the can for destroying Israel’s democracy, inviting charges of war crimes for starving civilians of aid and turning the world’s only Jewish state into an international pariah akin to apartheid-era South Africa. A majority of Israelis would never forgive him.Knowing he may face elections as soon as November, there’s an opportunity to persuade Netanyahu to accept a different set of political risks by ending the war in a way that gets the remaining hostages home, brings relief to Palestinians and engages the Gulf States in Gaza’s reconstruction. Peace, reunited families, the marginalization of Hamas, a revival of the Abraham Accords and Israel’s military successes in Lebanon under Netanyahu are the stuff of election campaigns, win or lose. International attention should focus entirely on cajoling Israel’s prime minister to take that chance — not some meaningless propaganda circus in the Mediterranean. © 2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Aid flotillas miss the point - Gaza’s future hinges on Netanyahu’s next move

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