The Eagle landed in Caracas – and SA socialists shout back

Key topics:US strike on Venezuela as a geopolitical Black SwanSouth African parties unite in condemning US actionFears over sovereignty, resources, and end of rules-based order.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Alec Hogg.Nassim Taleb popularised the term “Black Swans” to remind us that, in the investment world, the “impossible” can and sometimes does occur. What occurred in Caracas shows Black Swans also occur in geopolitics - unpredictable events that upend the board game entirely. Over the weekend, the board wasn't just upended; it was smashed. The United States’ unilateral military strike on Venezuela and the extraction of President Nicolás Maduro isn't just a headline; it is ap seismic shift in the geopolitical order that will have tremors reaching far beyond Caracas.For South Africa, a nation delicately balancing its Western trade partnerships with its BRICS+ ideological commitments, this is a moment of acute diplomatic reckoning. What is fascinating—and perhaps instructive for those of us watching the political tea leaves—is how this event has triggered a rare, harmonised chorus of condemnation from Pretoria’s Union Buildings and opposition benches.While the African National Congress (via DIRCO), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) often speak past each other, on this issue, they are singing from the same hymn sheet—albeit in different keys..Adult in the Room: DIRCO’s Legalism.The statement from the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) is characteristic of South African diplomacy: measured, legalistic, and rooted in the United Nations Charter.Government’s response avoids the fire-and-brimstone rhetoric of the streets, opting instead for the cold logic of the courtroom. By leaning heavily on Article 2(4) of the UN Charter—which prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity of any state—Pretoria is positioning itself not as a defender of Maduro the man, but of the system that keeps smaller nations safe from larger ones.For the rational observer, DIRCO’s argument is the most chilling. It correctly identifies that if the "rules-based international order" can be suspended whenever a Great Power feels sufficiently provoked, then we are not living in a global community, but in a global jungle. As the statement dryly notes: "When we break these norms, we invite anarchy." For a small, open economy like South Africa, anarchy is bad for business. And a Black Swan threat we’d forgotten about. .The Red Berets: A Warning for Ramaphosa?.Predictably, given its leader’s endorsement of the Chavistas (Malema unashamedly regards the Venezuelan wrecking ball as his role model) the EFF has turned up the volume. But look past the standard revolutionary vernacular in its statement —"imperial aggression," "puppet government" — and you find a sharper, more localised warning.The EFF’s National Spokesperson, Sinawo Thambo, connects the dots between Caracas and Cape Town. The statement raises a spectre that will likely haunt the nightmares of African leaders: if Washington can snatch a sitting President from the Miraflores Palace, who is safe?The party explicitly warns that "even President Cyril Ramaphosa could one day be targeted" on the basis of fabricated narratives. It’s a rhetorical grenade, but it lands nicely in a country already suspicious of Western interference. The EFF is framing this not just as a war on socialism, but as a direct threat to African sovereignty. The red overalls are positioning themselves as the guardians of the continent against a neo-colonial onslaught—a narrative that resonates deeply with their base..MK Party: The Resource Curse and the BRICS Angle.While the EFF is focused on ideology and sovereignty, the MK Party is following the money. Its response, issued by Nhlamulo Ndhlela, cuts straight to the economic jugular: oil.The MK Party views this through the lens of the "Resource Curse." It argues this isn't about democracy or drugs, but about the world’s largest oil reserves. In the party’s view, this is a "renewed enforcement of the Monroe Doctrine," a 19th-century US policy that claimed Latin America as Washington's backyard.Crucially, MK contextualises this within the shifting global power dynamics of 2026. The Zulu-dominated party sees the attack as a direct response to the rise of a multipolar world and the expansion of BRICS. By targeting a key BRICS partner, the US is seen to be sending a message to the entire bloc. For Jacob Zuma’s party, this validates its anti-Western stance and push for closer ties with Russia and China. They are telling us: "We told you so. The West cannot be trusted.".Connecting the Dots.What does this mean for South Africa? Three distinct South African voices have arrived at the same conclusion: the US action is illegal, dangerous, and a direct threat to the Global South.DIRCO sees a threat to the Law.The EFF sees a threat to Leadership.The MK Party sees a threat to Resources..This unity of opinion will make it incredibly difficult for the country to maintain any "business as usual" relations with the US in the short term. The pressure to retaliate diplomatically—perhaps by expelling diplomats or by leveraging SA’s position in the G20—will be immense.For the first time, I’m irritated at having been “cancelled” by the new brooms at the World Economic Forum. Donald Trump is set for his first in-person appearance in six years. SA’s Cyril Ramaphosa will surely be doing his utmost to rain on the US president’s parade. That promises to make the Davos gathering a fortnight hence the most interesting in ages. To rational observers, and in particular investors, the message is clear: The era of a predictable, rules-based global system is fraying. When the world's policeman becomes the world's kidnapper, the risk premium on everything just went up. South Africa’s socialists have drawn a line in the sand: the question is if they have the commitment or muscle to defend this position - or whether the tide of history is about to wash it away.

The Eagle landed in Caracas – and SA socialists shout back

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