The Economist - Reform’s big win: Problem for Labour, existential threat for Tories

Key topics:Farage’s Reform UK stuns Labour with dramatic by-election win in Runcorn and major gains nationwide.Conservatives suffer heavy losses; Badenoch’s leadership under growing pressure.Reform faces tough test ahead as it begins governing struggling local councils.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.From The Economist, published under licence. The original article can be found on www.economist.com© 2025 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved..The EconomistA grinning Nigel Farage held six fingers up for the camera. Six votes is not much of a majority, but it was enough for Mr Farage’s Reform UK to beat Labour in a by-election for Runcorn and Helsby, a seat just outside Liverpool. What was once one of the safest Labour seats in the country fell to Mr Farage’s party, in the most dramatic result in a swathe of elections that demonstrated Reform could win across the country and threaten both Labour and the Conservatives.Until now, Reform’s political impact had far outweighed its electoral impact. Mr Farage’s team had topped the polls on and off since the start of the year; the local elections on May 1st were a chance to show that this surge was not just an artefact of polling. The party took it.Runcorn was merely the cherry on top. The substance came elsewhere. Lincolnshire, the most right-wing part of England and once a fortress of Conservatism, gave Reform an overwhelming victory in its election for mayor. Reform also took control of Durham County Council, knocking over 38 Labour councillors in the process. Meanwhile, it hammered the Conservatives in the shires, taking control of Staffordshire. Lancashire, usually a fight between Labour and the Conservatives, is now Reform territory.It was as bad as can be for the Conservative Party. Party officials had done their best to set expectations of an electoral apocalypse. It certainly met them. By 5pm, the party had lost 541 councillors and 12 councils. Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, has struggled since taking the role in November. Grumbling about her position as leader will only grow. At least one person is happy to keep her: “Kemi Badenoch, please stay,” said Mr Farage in Runcorn. “Please don’t resign.”Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, may think similarly. While Mr Farage’s gang devour one section of Conservative support, the Lib Dems feast on the other (with heavy gains in Devon for example). The party attracts a fraction of the coverage of Reform. But its rise, if it continues, will prove just as consequential as Mr Farage’s surge.For Labour, things could have been worse. In 2021 the Conservatives lost Chesham and Amersham, one of their safest seats in one of England’s loveliest corners, to the Liberal Democrats in a by-election. It was, however, a 20-point hammering, rather than six votes. The Lib Dems retained it at the last election. By contrast, Labour will be confident of winning Runcorn back during a national poll.Labour also got lucky. First-past-the-post is now a slot machine: someone has to win the jackpot. Labour clung on in North Tyneside. It held on to the mayoralty in the West of England, the area around Bristol, in what was a genuine five-way competition, with only 25% of the vote. In Doncaster, Labour beat Reform by 698 votes, with 18,982 backing the Conservative candidate. Each mayor will have difficulty claiming to speak for their region. It is a foretaste of the next general election.The elections, which took place predominantly in Conservative-leaning areas, broadly reflected the national polls, in which Labour is roughly level with the Conservatives. But a party plodding along in the low 20s is lucky to still be alive, never mind in government. How to recover will dominate internal Labour politics in the coming months.Runcorn summed up the dilemma: if Labour had wooed a few more Green voters, they would have held Runcorn. Some in the party think Sir Keir is ignoring these voters. But a few converts from Reform would have done the trick, too. A reshuffle of Sir Keir’s cabinet is mooted. Ed Miliband, who is responsible for Net Zero, is a perennial target for those in the right of the party. In such confusing times, people in Labour will turn to their eternal enemy: other members of the Labour Party.Although local elections are widely read through the prism of national politics, they are actually about local government. Reform councillors now have the task of running some of Britain’s broken councils, from Staffordshire to Durham. It is a close-to-impossible job. Councillors are stuck trying to fulfil mandatory obligations, such as care for the elderly, without the means to raise enough taxes themselves to pay for them. With little power comes great responsibility; in his career so far, Mr Farage has always enjoyed the opposite. Running a county is harder than it looks. Never mind a country.

The Economist - Reform’s big win: Problem for Labour, existential threat for Tories

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