FT: Military Briefing — US/Israeli strikes and Iran's retaliation

Key topics:US and Israel launch strikes on Iran, killing Ayatollah Khamenei.Iran retaliates with missiles targeting US bases and Israel.Gulf oil supplies threatened amid escalating Middle East conflict..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Charles Clover and Malcolm Moore in London, Mehul Srivastava in Istanbul, Steff Chávez in Washington and James Shotter in Jerusalem.On Saturday morning, explosions rang out around Iran, with smoke rising over Tehran while sirens wailed over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.Israel had begun a war against Iran, the defence minister Israel Katz announced, with Israelis calling it Operation Roar of the Lion. Israelis were told to brace for incoming Iranian missiles.The US called it a “massive and ongoing” operation, branding it Operation Epic Fury. “This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States Armed Forces,” President Donald Trump said in a social media post..What did Israel and the US strike?.Iranian state TV confirmed early on Sunday that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader for nearly four decades, had been killed. Satellite imagery showed widespread destruction of his residential compound in Tehran.Other cities were also struck. These included Isfahan, where strikes were reported near the site of a nuclear complex that both the US and Israel struck last year during the 12-day war; Kermanshah, in north-western Iran, home to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps base; and Shiraz, where Israel has alleged Iran has a large underground missile production facility.The local judiciary said more than 100 people were killed in a missile attack on a school in the city of Minab. Strikes continued on Sunday.Trump said Washington wanted to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon and destroy its ability to make long-range missiles that could hit the US.But he also called on the Iranian people to “take over your government”.Earlier on Saturday, Israel’s northern command carried out several strikes in southern Lebanon, hitting what it described as Hizbollah infrastructure.Israel had warned Hizbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia militant group, not to rush to Iran’s defence..What military assets does the US have?.The US has about 40,000 troops in the region, spread across bases and ships, and has amassed its largest naval force in the region since its 2003 invasion of Iraq.Washington’s newest and largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, was in the Mediterranean this week, with sightings off Israel’s northern coast on Friday, while the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group was off Oman’s coast in February.The two strike groups include one carrier and three guided-missile destroyers, with an array of weapons to attack and defend its own troops and partner countries.The carriers also have dozens of planes and helicopters aboard, including F-18s, E-2 airborne early-warning aircraft and cargo planes. The Gerald R Ford also carries F-35 jets. The US has also sent planes to bases in the region.The US has deployed additional Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense and Patriot air-defence systems. Both were used in the 2025 war and earlier assaults, depleting their stockpiles of interceptors.The US operates eight permanent bases in the Middle East, in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. It has access to about a dozen other military sites, including in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Syria.The biggest is Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar — the headquarters for US Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East. The base has about 10,000 troops. In June, Iran fired missiles at Al Udeid in retaliation for the US bombing the republic’s three main nuclear facilities..How is Iran responding?.Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards force said on Saturday that it had hit US bases in Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates “hard”, as well as “military and security centres” in Israel.“Missile and drone attacks by the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces will continue,” it added.Verified footage posted on social media showed a huge explosion at the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet base in Juffair, Bahrain, which serves as the headquarters of US naval operations in the Middle East.Qatar said it had “intercepted and neutralised” three waves of Iranian missile attacks targeting several areas across the country, while Jordan said it had intercepted two ballistic missiles.Saudi Arabia said Iran had targeted its capital, Riyadh, and its oil-rich eastern province. Kuwait said a drone struck its international airport, causing limited damage.Israel declared a state of emergency, shutting its airspace and most businesses and restricting gatherings. Israeli air defences intercepted most of the missiles in an Iranian salvo, though fragments and shrapnel caused small numbers of injuries.American Thaad batteries and other defences are also positioned to protect Israel.During two conflicts with Israel in 2024 and 2025, Iran fired hundreds of long-range ballistic missiles, slow-moving cruise missiles and drones. Most were shot down, but dozens broke through Israel’s aerial defences and hit or landed close to sensitive military targets, including the Mossad headquarters.Iran has learned to fine-tune the tempo and timing of salvos to maximise their effectiveness. The US and Israel’s stockpiles of interceptor rockets are at unprecedented lows, adding to the risks of this conflict for them.But firing those missiles reveals the launchers’ location. Israel has previously attacked launch sites immediately after the missiles are fired, a tactic it calls “killing the archer”..Will the conflict expand?.Tehran has been replenishing its missile arsenal since last June, after firing more than 500 during its brief war with Israel. Experts estimate the combined missile stocks to be in the thousands, capable of an extended salvo war.Mining the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane for global energy supplies from the Gulf, is another option for retaliation. But this could spark a backlash from China, which depends heavily on Gulf oil.Several ships turned back from the strait on Saturday, after the Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the waterway was now unsafe for them. Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the strait had been “effectively” closed.Gulf states also fear Iran could attack energy infrastructure. In 2019, Iran was blamed for an attack in Saudi Arabia that temporarily knocked out half the kingdom’s crude output.Iran could harass or seize nearby individual tankers as it did in 2019, or direct allied militias to attack regional energy infrastructure. Regional proxies such as the Houthis or Iraqi Shia militias could strike embassies or lightly defended bases.As recently as November, Iran-backed groups were blamed for a rocket attack on the Khor Mor gasfield in Iraq’s Kurdistan region.Speaking before the attack, Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said he expected retaliation to be calibrated. “Iran has never been interested in having an extended conventional war,” he said..What are the implications for oil?.Oil markets will not reopen until Monday morning in Asia, but Brent crude rose as much as 3 per cent on Friday to touch a seven-month high of $73 a barrel.The international oil benchmark has risen nearly 12 per cent over the past month as markets brace for potential supply disruptions from a US-Iran conflict. But it remains below the level of more than $80 briefly touched during the 12-day war in June.Iran exports about 2 per cent of global oil supply, most of it to China. More importantly, it exerts influence over the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 30 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil trade passed last year.The strait has never been closed, despite repeated threats from Tehran. Energy flows were not interrupted during last summer’s war with Israel. Even so, the surge in crude prices during that conflict underlined how sensitive markets are to perceived risks in the region.Additional reporting by Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Simeon Kerr and Sam Joiner.© 2026 The Financial Times Ltd.

FT: Military Briefing — US/Israeli strikes and Iran's retaliation

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