Russian relationship isn’t helping Iran, but definitely boosted North Korea

Key topics:North Korea deepens alliance with Russia, sending troops and missilesIran gains little from its Moscow ties despite drone support to RussiaNorth Korea's boosted military position challenges US-Asia strategy.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..By Soo-Hyang Choi and Alastair Gale.During its war on Ukraine, Russia has leaned on North Korea for artillery shells and troops, and on Iran for drone technology. The payback for the two members of what George W. Bush once called the “Axis of Evil” has been markedly different.A year after Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defense pact with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the North Korean leader appears to be in his most secure position since taking power in late 2011.Alongside valuable experience gained on the battlefield in Russia pushing back incursions from Ukraine, Pyongyang is believed to have bolstered its military with modern anti-aircraft missiles and advanced electronic warfare systems from Moscow. Russian supplies of oil and food have also helped Kim’s regime overcome the effects of suffocating global sanctions.In contrast, Iran has little to show for its relationship with Moscow as it continues to be pummeled by waves of Israeli attacks.“North Korea is in its strongest strategic position in decades, possessing the military means to hold at risk US forces and US allies in Northeast Asia, while continuing to improve its capability to threaten the US Homeland,” the US Defense Intelligence Agency said in its 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment report earlier this year.In an indication of North Korea’s growing confidence, it has reportedly rejected a letter from President Donald Trump to Kim that might restart a dialogue after three summit meetings between the leaders during Trump’s first term.Key to North Korea’s ability to leverage its ties with Russia has been its willingness to send troops into battle and to resupply fast depleting Russian munitions. More than 6,000 North Korean troops are believed to have been injured or killed in fighting in Russia’s Kursk region, according to the UK Defence Ministry. South Korean intelligence authorities estimate Pyongyang deployed at least 15,000 soldiers to Russia since last fall. .Read more:. FT: Gideon Rachman – The west underestimates North Korea at its peril.Tehran’s strategic partnership agreement with Moscow is less comprehensive. Tehran has supplied Moscow with hundreds of attack drones since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. It also joined Putin in supporting President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in the war in Syria before his overthrow. But the pact doesn’t bind the two countries to defend each other if one is attacked, unlike the alliance between Russia and North Korea.Putin has offered to act as a mediator between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and told Trump as much in a phone call. That move likely points more to an opportunistic attempt to improve ties with Trump and deflect attention from the war in Ukraine than an effort to defend its strategic partner in the Middle East.Back in Pyongyang, the frequency of high-level contact with Moscow was on display this week when Putin’s top security official, Sergei Shoigu, visited the North Korean capital for the third time in less than three months. According to Russia’s Interfax news service, Shoigu said on Tuesday that North Korea agreed to dispatch 5,000 military construction workers to help rebuild infrastructure in Kursk and 1,000 sappers to clear mines from Russian territory.Alongside artillery shells, North Korea transferred at least 100 ballistic missiles to Russia last year which were used to target civilian infrastructure in major cities including Kyiv, according to a recent report from a coalition of 11 countries that investigates violations of United Nations sanctions on North Korea. The prolonged conflict in Ukraine has stretched Russia’s supplies of men and basic weaponry. That’s enhanced the value of what North Korea is able to provide even if the support remains more symbolic than critical. In return, Moscow is suspected of transferring more advanced equipment, helping North Korea plug gaps in its military capabilities. The recent coalition report cited evidence that Russia has sent military supplies, such as electronic warfare systems, to North Korea using cargo planes. Ukraine, meanwhile, is tracking evidence that Russian-Iranian drone technologies have spread to North Korea. So far, there’s little indication that Russia might be supplying Pyongyang with its most advanced military technology, such as the ability to build nuclear-powered submarines..Read more:.Kursk: Russia’s pivotal WWII victory – Chuck Stephens.Fyodor Lukyanov, the head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a think tank that advises the Kremlin, said North Korea’s support for Russia has played an important role in the conflict in Ukraine. “Politically, Russia has demonstrated that it has reliable partners,” he said, referring to the alliance with North Korea. “Militarily, the supply of weapons and participation in combat operations in the Kursk region clearly played a role — not a decisive one, but a sufficient one.”According to the coalition report, Russia also appears to have supplied over a million barrels of oil to North Korea in 2024, exceeding the cap of 500,000 barrels set by the UN Security Council.The stronger hand that North Korea has gained has altered the calculus for the US, South Korea and other countries such as China and Japan. With a new leader in office, South Korea is trying to resume dialogue with North Korea as part of Lee Jae Myung’s pledge to reduce geopolitical risks. It’s far from clear whether North Korea will respond. The North Korean leader made a strategic decision in recent years to break off communications with the US and its allies as he pressed ahead with modernizing and increasing the size of his nuclear arsenal. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that North Korea has assembled around 50 warheads, possesses enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more and is accelerating the production of further fissile material.As ties between Russia and North Korea have deepened, new questions have been raised about the durability of the US-South Korea alliance.Trump administration officials have been clear that the US will focus on deterring China, and Trump has himself reiterated demands for Seoul to pay more to keep 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea. The US denied a recent report that it might move around 4,500 American troops out of South Korea, but talk of a drawdown continues to circulate.Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said a reduction of US troops in South Korea could create instability and undermine the credibility of US deterrence in the region.“This could create an environment in which the North Koreans feel a little bit more confident than they should be and could lead to miscalculation,” Cha said..© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Russian relationship isn’t helping Iran, but definitely boosted North Korea

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