FT: Trump goes 'Big Man of Africa' - promises $5k bonus to voters if he wins midterms

US President Donald Trump has promised every adult American a $5,000 "dividend" if Republicans hold Congress in November, a populist pitch meant to offset his sliding approval ratings. The pledge, floated at a raucous Dallas convention, would need congressional sign-off and could cost over $1tn, stoking fears of runaway inflation. Crude oil above $100 a barrel, driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict, is already feeding into fuel and shipping costs that South African motorists and importers will feel directly. With US bond yields near three-year highs, any fresh stimulus could ripple through to emerging-market borrowing costs, the rand included..By James Politi.Donald Trump pledged to issue a $5,000 “dividend” to every adult US citizen if Republicans retain control of Congress in the midterm elections, as he sought to rescue his party’s prospects with a big dose of populist economics.The president made the announcement on the opening night of the Republican Party’s first-ever midterm convention, in Dallas, on Wednesday. He urged voters to “pretend that I am on the ballot just one more time”, despite his plummeting approval ratings.Trump said he could promise the $5,000 payout to voters if Republicans retained control of both houses of Congress, “because of our tremendous strength and success economically . . . very much like a successful company will do a cash distribution”.The payouts, which would be larger than the direct Covid-era stimulus cheques and could cost in excess of $1tn, would require congressional approval. They are likely to face fierce opposition over concerns about runaway inflation, fiscal discipline and complaints that Trump is trying to buy votes with public money.The announcement marks a dramatic attempt to recapture momentum after Trump’s poor polling placed Republicans on the defensive as they hit the final stretch of campaigning for the midterms, which will determine control of Congress.US President Donald Trump promising a $5,000 'dividend' if Republicans win the midtermsSo if the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000. It will be called the Trump dividend.While a wide array of Republicans turned out for the Dallas convention dubbed “Trumpapalooza”, others stayed home to campaign, preferring to keep some distance from their unpopular president — amid widespread disappointment with Trump’s failure to tame inflation, the impact of the Iran war and scepticism about AI data centres.Trump focused much of his speech, which lasted nearly two hours, on casting the Democratic Party and its insurgent socialist wing as “far-left lunatics and fanatics”.“We will defeat communism in America and vote for American freedom,” Trump said, painting a dark portrait of the “tragedy” that would befall the US if Democrats and their “very far-left agenda” won back control of Congress.Speakers throughout the primetime convention, including cabinet members and an array of Republican officials and lawmakers, sought to tar the Democrats by pointing to their most leftwing candidates.Trump’s proposal to pay adult Americans $5,000 added a financial incentive to voters, even though additional fiscal stimulus could further stoke inflation and worsen the country’s public finances. The president stipulated the money would have to be spent in the US.The “Trump dividend” pledge comes at a time of mounting concern in bond markets over high government spending, with 10-year borrowing costs reaching almost a three-year high earlier on Wednesday. Bond markets were largely unchanged after Trump’s announcement.Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts to halt the rise in yields with bond buybacks have failed to calm investors’ nerves.Even if Republicans do hold on to their majorities, many GOP lawmakers would be wary of approving the cash payouts.In his second term, Trump has floated a dividend from the revenue generated from his tariffs, but the plan was never developed by the administration nor was it seriously considered on Capitol Hill.Rusat Ramgopal, who travelled to the Dallas convention from New York, praised the cash payout.“It communicates to the American voter that should the Republicans win, they will be handling the affordability issue, and they will be able to do so because they will be able to enact a policy agenda that will be money back in your pockets,” Ramgopal said. “It was a line that clearly went over well in the room.”The American Airlines Arena in Texas — where Republican Ken Paxton is fighting a tight Senate race against Democrat James Talarico — was full in the lower tiers near the stage, but the upper rows at the top were mostly empty. The spectacle of a stadium convention with primetime speeches is normally reserved for presidential election years, but Trump opted to host the event to galvanise the GOP midterm effort.Trump is making a big bet that he can boost turnout on the right by putting himself front and centre in the campaign, emulating his success in the 2024 presidential race. “I am asking you to pretend that I am on the ballot just one more time,” Trump said, vowing to campaign across the country leading up to the November vote. “We’re going to have rallies just like this . . . it’s really about common sense more than anything else.”US President Donald Trump asks voters to 'pretend that I'm on the ballot'So I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. Just one more time. Because if we lose, you're going to lose your border, you're going to lose your tax cuts, you're going to lose your safety and security, you're going to lose your wealth. Our country is going through hell. You will be going through hell just like you did just two years ago. We went through hell.But the six-month-old conflict with Iran, and its impact on the price of crude oil, which has risen above $100 a barrel again this week after fresh exchanges of fire between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, is weighing heavily on Republican candidates. .Read more:.The Economist: How high could global inflation go?.Private conversations among Republican strategists in downtown Dallas were subdued, as they viewed their majority in the US House of Representatives as already lost and the Senate to be essentially a toss-up. “I think the House flips,” one GOP strategist said. “And I think we keep our majority in the Senate by maybe one.”.© 2026 The Financial Times Ltd..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

FT: Trump goes 'Big Man of Africa' - promises $5k bonus to voters if he wins midterms

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