UK demographic crisis: Birth rates hit historic lows

Key topics:UK births fall to lowest level since 1977Fertility rate drops further below replacement levelMigration key to future UK population growth.By Philip Aldrick.England and Wales recorded fewer births than in any year since 1977 as the UK edges closer to a demographic tipping point where the non-immigrant population starts to shrink.The number of live births in 2025 dropped by 1.6% to 585,396, according to the Office for National Statistics, just 14,408 more than the number of people who died. In 2024, births outnumbered deaths by 26,064. The figures underscore the significant issues at stake for the UK’s ongoing debate about migration and the wider economy..The Labour government has toughened up visa rules to bring migration down from record highs in a bid to reverse the rise of Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration Reform UK in opinion polls. Andy Burnham, the soft-left Manchester mayor who is frontrunner to take over from Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, has said he will stick with the party’s current migration plans. According to the Resolution Foundation think tank, the UK is on track for a shortfall in native births compared with deaths as soon as this year, raising questions about the country’s potential growth trajectory and the costs of supporting an ageing population. Several developed countries, including South Korea and Japan, are already experiencing population decline with a fertility rate, which measures the number of children per woman, below 1. The fertility rate for England and Wales slid to another record low of 1.39 last year from 1.41 in 2024. The replacement rate that keeps the population stable is 2.1.Immigration has long ensured the UK population continues to expand but migrant numbers have started to fall from the record highs of 944,000 in the year to March 2023. ONS data last week showed that 171,000 more people came to the UK last year than left, the lowest net immigration number since 2012 excluding the pandemic when travel restrictions were in place. .Farage’s party has promised to stop non-essential immigration, end the status of Indefinite Leave to Remain that give migrants access to benefits, and deport foreign nationals.Past migrants to Britain are now helping stabilize the nation’s demographics. Of total live births last year, 40.2% were born to parents where one or both were born outside the UK, the ONS said. That was an increase from 39.5% in 2024..Resolution said earlier this year the imminent shortfall in births compared with deaths will increase “by an ever-widening margin, forever closing a chapter in the demographics” of Britain that stretches back to at least the start of the 20th century. Any population growth “is set to come from international net migration.”Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS, said: “In 2025 the number of babies born fell to the lowest level in almost half a century and continues the long-term trend of falling births going back over the past decade. More than a third of births are to mothers born outside the UK which again continues recent trends.”.© 2026 Bloomberg L.P..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

UK demographic crisis: Birth rates hit historic lows

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