Ukraine’s allies are inviting their own ‘strategic defeat’: Marc Champion

Ukraine's fight against Russian aggression hangs in a precarious balance, with Western unity fraying and Putin emboldened by battlefield gains. While Kyiv's allies scramble to bolster supplies and tactics, disjointed strategies risk a strategic defeat—not for Russia, but for Ukraine and NATO. Success hinges on coordinated action: ramping up military aid, aligning messaging, and sustaining pressure on the Kremlin. Only then can Ukraine secure a lasting peace that ensures its independence..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..Join us for BizNews' first investment-focused conference on Thursday, 12 September, in Hermanus, featuring top experts like Frans Cronje, Piet Viljoen, and more. Get insights on electricity and exploiting SA's gas bounty from new and familiar faces. Register here..By Marc Champion ___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Last year, some Western leaders started boasting of Russia's "strategic defeat" in Ukraine. This was always a terrible idea and a line President Vladimir Putin never tires of citing as he pushes the false claim that he sent his armies across the border to defend Russia from Western aggression, rather than invade a former colony for gain..Now, after more than 1,000 days of bloodshed, we're finally beginning to see the outlines of such a strategic defeat emerge. Only the potential losers are Ukraine and its allies, not Putin..I'm not trying here to blame Donald Trump in advance, should Putin succeed in crushing Ukraine and achieving his war aims in the new year. The ill-judged, leverage-destroying rhetoric from some of the US president-elect's family and advisers doesn't help and needs to stop. But the primary fault lies elsewhere..Some Republicans who back Trump's "peace now" approach say — often accurately — that they once supported of a much stronger policy to support Kyiv than the Biden administration. They wanted the White House and American allies in Europe to give Ukraine a wider range of military aid, in bigger quantities and much faster. The war continues today, with Ukrainian forces struggling to hold the line, in large part because that didn't happen back in 2014 or 2022..Less truthfully, these same Republicans now say the only way forward is to explain to Ukrainians that time's up, and they must accept whatever peace deal Putin is willing to offer, on a schedule of Trump's choosing..Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy agrees the war should end next year; the dispute is over how. Kyiv, like its Baltic, British, Polish and Scandinavian friends, understands that Putin currently has no incentive to negotiate anything and therefore won't. He has the advantage on the battlefield and sees Western resolve crumbling before his eyes. When Putin says peace, he means Ukraine's surrender..Read more: 🔒 FT: Vladimir Putin bets on North Korean troops to retake Kursk from Ukraine.There's only one answer to this conundrum that doesn't lead to strategic defeat for Ukraine and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization: a rapid change to align Ukrainian supplies and force regeneration with a new goal of achieving a lasting cease-fire that leaves Ukraine both secure and independent. This has to be done with deliberation and in concert..Instead, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Friday became the first Western leader to call Putin in two years, without first making sure Kyiv and his country's allies were on the same page, and with no prospect of success. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan soon followed by leaking ideas for a peace plan he wants to mediate..Both men were jumping through the door Trump has opened by calling for a quick end to the war, and both did so for personal political gain. Scholz is on his way out of power, having called early elections. He's desperate for a miracle to reverse his political fortunes, and his uncoordinated, unplanned phone conversation with Putin was the result..Erdogan has seen himself as a mediator between Moscow and the West since the conflict started. He had striking success in negotiating a deal to keep grain flowing from Ukraine's blockaded ports early on, but less so when it came to the bigger picture. He has no intention of letting Trump, Scholz or anyone else steal his thunder..As Zelenskiy said after the Scholz call, it risked opening a Pandora's box — and he was right. What's likely to emerge is a vanity parade of bids to "lead" on ending the war, which can benefit only Putin. The Kremlin swiftly dismissed Erdogan's plan to freeze the current front lines, delay Ukraine's NATO membership bid for a decade and deploy international peacekeepers to a demilitarized buffer zone as "unacceptable..Ukraine and its supporters need to realign strategy with resources, quickly. Kyiv's forces are fighting as hard and with as much determination as they ever were. Their ammunition supplies and advantage in drone warfare are in better shape than for much of the past year, but not enough to compensate for Russia's growing edge in manpower. Attrition, a mobilization Zelenskiy unwisely delayed, and a daring, yet ultimately failed gamble to reclaim the battlefield initiative by seizing Russian territory near Kursk have all contributed. Ukrainian forces are now ceding territory at a faster rate than at any time since the spring of 2022..None of this means Russia has overcome the manifold weaknesses that have cost it hundreds of thousands in dead and wounded, without — to date — achieving Putin's goal of returning Ukraine to Moscow's control. And yet Russia can sustain its losses for longer. It also now has allies willing to supply weapons and even troops to boost the war effort..The Biden administration is right to release as much aid as it can before shuffling off the stage. Also correct, if much too late, is the reported decision to authorize Ukraine's use of ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles against targets inside Russia. The restrictions had been imposed for fear of Russian escalation, but Putin of course escalated regardless. His deployments of North Korean troops and tactical ballistic missiles already have been confirmed. The DPRK's Hwasoong-11GA missiles have a maximum range of 900 kilometers (560 miles) and payload of 500 kilograms (1,100 pounds), compared with 300 kilometers and about 240 kilograms for the ATACMS..Ukraine's allies need to coordinate their efforts in frontloading supplies, instead of competing to "win" the peace. Leaders, including members of the incoming Trump administration, need to discipline their public and private messaging so Putin is left in no doubt that refusing to negotiate with Zelenskiy — as opposed to simply demanding terms of surrender — would incur costs so high they could endanger his position at home. .Taken alone, allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS inside Russia can't do this. Nor can an extra $5 billion or more of US arms rushed to the front over the next few months. Nor the Scandinavian initiative to fund Ukraine's expanding domestic arms production, from munitions to missiles. Nor even a timely, tactical withdrawal of troops from Kursk to bolster the frontlines within Ukraine, or the better training and more efficient deployment of newly mobilized Ukrainian forces..Executed together with a coherent new strategy, however, these moves have the potential to grind Russian territorial advances to a rapid halt and even reverse a few. That's hardly a utopian hope; the initiative in this war has shifted multiple times since it began. Ukraine's growing advantage in drone technologies, taken with stalemate on the ground and a growing long-range strike campaign against Russian troop concentrations, oil infrastructure and airfields behind the lines, could yet persuade the Kremlin that time is no longer on its side..No matter how galling politically, the Biden administration and other NATO allies should be doing all they can to prepare for and, in reality, help Trump. They need to change the dynamics on the battlefield sufficiently that the next US president is dealt the hand he needs to win a genuine peace. That won't represent the Kremlin's strategic defeat, because it was never going to. It could, though, force Putin to accept a cease-fire that leaves Ukraine independent and secures against further invasion..Read also:.🔒 FT: Biden in big policy shift – allows Ukraine to hit Russia with long-range missiles🔒 FT: Vladimir Putin bets on North Korean troops to retake Kursk from UkraineUkraine's gains in Russian territory are Putin's worst nightmare: James Stavridis.© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Ukraine’s allies are inviting their own ‘strategic defeat’: Marc Champion

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