US midterm elections 2026: The FT’s guide

Trump's war in Iran has pushed American petrol to $4.47 a gallon and given Democrats a real chance at both houses of Congress on 3 November. They need a net gain of four Senate seats, and North Carolina, Maine and Ohio are their best hopes. About 20 House races will decide the lower chamber. The stakes are close to home for South Africans. The Strait of Hormuz disruption behind US price rises also feeds into local fuel costs. A Democratic Congress could also rein in a president whose trade and foreign policy have strained ties with Pretoria. Republicans still have far more money to spend..By Lauren Fedor.Is the US Senate now in play for the Democrats?Months ago, the Republicans’ majority in the upper chamber lookedimpregnable. Then Donald Trump launched a war in Iran, sending American fuel and borrowing rates sharply higher. Now Democrats appear in a commanding position to take not just the US House but potentially even the Senate too.The president has told voters to “pretend I am on the ballot”. Now someRepublicans are trying to distance themselves from their historicallyunpopular leader.But Democrats are unpopular too. The race for control of Congress may boil down to whether Trump’s party can overcome popular anger about inflation and the high cost of living — the biggest issues for most voters in many polls — and whether Democrats can persuade disillusioned voters they have real answers.The election will give a sense of America’s mood near the halfway point ofTrump’s second term. It will be full of colourful candidates and blockbusterfights, from the far-left Democratic candidates roiling their own party’sestablishment to the Senate battle in Texas pitting a progressive Christianseminary student against a scandal-ridden, Trump-backed Republican.Here are the pivotal developments to watch between now and November 3.The race for the SenateDemocrats face an uphill battle to take back control of the Senate, where 35 seats of the 100-member legislature are up for grabs.Just 12 of these are rated as competitive by the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter that analyses US election campaigns. The rest are in safely “red” Republican states or “blue” Democratic states and are unlikely to change hands.Republicans control the Senate by 53 seats to 47, with two independentsenators, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, caucusing with theDemocrats. That means Democrats need a net gain of four seats if they areto retake the upper chamber.Republicans, meanwhile, can only afford to lose three seats. If the Senate issplit 50-50, then vice-president JD Vance is able to cast tiebreaking votes inthe chamber..Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browsersettings.Democrats’ strongest chances of picking up seats are in North Carolina,Maine and Ohio. They could also pick up a fourth seat in either Alaska, Iowa or Texas. But they must also hang on to those they already hold inMichigan, Georgia and New Hampshire.It’s a tall order, but a tantalising one for Democrats. If they can take backthe Senate, they will be able to curb Trump’s presidential power in his finaltwo years in the White House.As petrol and other prices have risen, Democrats’ chances of winning theSenate have increased. Betting markets now think the party will win control of the upper chamber..Senate races to watch1. MaineRepublican incumbent Susan Collins will face fifth-generation loggerTroy Jackson after progressive populist challenger Graham Platnerwas forced to suspend his campaign in the face of sexual assault andrape allegations.2. OhioFormer Democratic senator Sherrod Brown is trying to make apolitical comeback against incumbent Republican Jon Husted in a testof whether the party can still appeal to white, working-class voters inOhio.3. MichiganProgressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed will face former RepublicanCongress member Mike Rogers in what is likely to be a fierce battlefor this must-win seat.4. AlaskaUnder Alaska’s quirky state laws, the top four finishers in a primaryadvance to the general election. The two front-runners are DanSullivan, the Republican incumbent, and Mary Peltola, a formerDemocratic Congress member.5. TexasDemocrat James Talarico, a former school teacher and Presbyterianseminarian, is in a battle to defeat Ken Paxton, the Trump-backedattorney-general with myriad professional and personal scandals.6. GeorgiaDemocrat Jon Ossoff, whose soaring rhetoric has led some to questionwhether he will run for president one day, is defending his seatagainst Republican Congress member Mike Collins.7. IowaEarly polls suggest a close race between Republican congresswomanAshley Hinson and Democratic state legislator Josh Turek. A win forTurek would be a big upset: Donald Trump won Iowa by a 13-pointmargin in 2024.8. North CarolinaThis state may be Democrats' best chance to pick up a Senate seat.Popular former Democratic governor Roy Cooper and formerRepublican National Committee chair Michael Whatley are vying toreplace outgoing Republican Trump critic Thom Tillis.9. New HampshireCongressman Chris Pappas is competing with veteran Republicanlawmaker John E Sununu in the race to replace veteran senatorJeanne Shaheen, with the two closely matched in the polls.The battle for the House of RepresentativesIf Democrats take control of the House, they will decide whether Trump can pass legislation through Congress. They would also almost certainly launch investigations into the president and top members of his cabinet.Members of the House serve two-year terms, so the entire 435-memberlower chamber of Congress is up for re-election this November. The vastmajority of the races are uncompetitive — partly due to decades ofgerrymandering, in which both political parties have sought to redraw theborders of House districts to shore up “safe” seats across the country.Although this redistricting has historically taken place after the census once every 10 years, Republican-controlled state legislatures recently redrew election maps in southern states such as Texas. Democrats responded with their own gerrymandered map in California. Most experts suggest Republicans could gain a few seats through these redrawn boundaries. But the process has left only about 20 races that could decide the contest. Campaign money and resources are already inundating those districts.One such race is Pennsylvania’s seventh congressional district, whereRepublican Ryan Mackenzie is facing a well-funded Democratic challengerfor the seat in Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter from Bethlehem,Pennsylvania, where the FT is undertaking a multiyear reporting project.Nationally, polls show voters swinging towards Democratic congressionalcandidates. Prediction markets also think Democrats will take the House..Governors’ races to watchVoters in state and local elections will also choose other officials, includinggovernors in 36 states. Some will be seen as potential presidentialcontenders in 2028 and beyond.Among the toss-ups are battlegrounds that are also swing states inpresidential elections: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. Also in themix are Michigan and Ohio.Other races are drawing attention for the cast of characters. In California — which is generally seen as solidly Democratic — former Downing Streetadviser turned Republican Fox News personality Steve Hilton is running along-shot campaign against Democrat Xavier Becerra, Joe Biden’s formerhealth and human services secretary.Some Democratic governors up for re-election are considered 2028presidential candidates. They include Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania,Maryland’s Wes Moore and JB Pritzker of Illinois..Key issuesAffordabilityDuring the 2024 presidential race, Trump promised to crush inflation andlower petrol prices that had soared under his predecessor Biden.But Republicans could pay the penalty for the president’s failure to deliver.Inflation is now higher than when Trump took office in January 2025.Petrol prices are a totemic issue for American voters and have risen sharply since Trump launched his war in Iran. According to AAA data, the average price of a gallon of regular petrol is currently $4.47, well above its level of $3.14 a year ago.The price of diesel — the lifeblood of America’s agricultural and industrialsectors — has shattered previous records and is now above $6.50 a gallon.Those costs are rattling through supply chains, pushing up the prices ofother goods.For Democrats, Trump’s failure to deliver on pledges has provided aconsistent line of attack on the White House and the Republican Party.Trump has dismissed the cost of living “hoax”, mocking the word“affordability” as an obsession of “fake news” media.IranTrump’s decision to go to war with Iran in February has been deeplyunpopular with voters.The president campaigned on a promise to avoid new military conflicts,especially in the Middle East. But in recent months he has embraced theuse of force around the world, from the operation to capture NicolásMaduro in Venezuela, strikes against alleged drug boats in Latin Americaand the Caribbean and attacks on Islamic militants in Nigeria.With the conflict in Iran, Trump’s troubles have been compounded by thehigh cost of the war and its failure to accomplish its aims.Months after US strikes began, the regime in Tehran has not beendislodged, and Washington is struggling to maintain a fragile ceasefire or to secure an agreement to maintain open shipping access through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.ImmigrationEarly in his second term, Trump earned plaudits from voters for the near-complete closure of the US border with Mexico.But the president’s crackdown on immigration has gone much further, withfederal agents enforcing a deportation campaign, sometimes violently. Theoperation has disrupted communities across the country and prompted awave of protests.In January, government officers shot and killed two US citizens protestingthe anti-immigration raids in Minneapolis, Minnesota, triggering protests.In July, two more people were killed by immigration agents and the WhiteHouse has continued to push anti-immigrant rhetoric.Voters still trust Republicans more than Democrats on immigration, by 47per cent to 36 per cent, according to polling conducted for the FT byFocaldata.AITrump and his allies have been hoping that the AI boom, which has liftedthe stock market and boosted investment, would help improve voters’perceptions of the economy heading into the midterms.But the president’s intense focus on AI, including his cosiness with toptechnology executives, appears to be backfiring.Voters fear the benefits of the technology are not being broadly shared and believe the gains are too narrowly distributed among a small cohort of top executives.Protests have erupted across the country over the construction of the datacentres needed to power AI development, due to their environmentalimpact, their effect on electricity prices and the limited number of jobs they create..Read more:.TCS: US midterms could reshape South Africa’s Washington strategy.Party fundingRepublicans have a substantial cash advantage across the national partycommittees and their allied Super Pacs, which held about $658mn at theend of June. Democratic groups held roughly $353mn.The pro-Trump Super Pac Maga Inc has also amassed a war chest of morethan $400mn — more than any comparable group in a non-presidentialelection cycle, despite Trump being constitutionally barred from seekinganother term — giving the Republicans another potentially significantfinancial advantage. With just weeks to go to the election, Maga Inc hasbegun spending some of its money to support Trump-friendly candidates.Despite their smaller overall cash pile, Democrats have bigger war chests in several high-profile Senate races, including Texas and Georgia..© 2026 The Financial Times Ltd..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. 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US midterm elections 2026: The FT’s guide

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