With Trump at the helm of the USA, is war with Iran inevitable?: Marc Champion

Key topics.Iran is closer than ever to building a nuclear arsenalTrump weighs war threats to push for a tougher nuclear dealSanctions strain Iran's economy, fueling internal unrest.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here..If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Marc Champion___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Iran's Islamist regime hasn't been this vulnerable for decades, nor as close to being able to build a nuclear arsenal. So, does that mean it's finally time to bomb?.Donald Trump's preference is clear: He wants a deal and is willing to go to war if he doesn't get one. To make the threat credible and prepare for contingencies, the Pentagon has begun major deployments to the region, including a second aircraft carrier and B2 stealth bombers. Israel awaits a green light, finger on trigger. .The problem is that it's a much shorter and easier path to war than to the kind of deal Trump wants, especially now Israel is again escalating hostilities in Gaza. It's what happens after air strikes that's hard to predict or control..Iranian threats of retaliation against US assets and allies worldwide may sound hollow, after Iran's humiliation in missile duels with Israel. But not all US allies, embassies and bases enjoy the protection of Israel's layered air defences..Equally, Trump's choice for chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Retired Air Force Lieutenant General Dan Caine said in a written statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that military force alone is unlikely to cajole Iran into a new and tougher nuclear agreement. That would take a multipronged strategy, including diplomacy and economic inducements..Even then, as Michael Singh, a former senior director for Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush administration's National Security Council, told me, bombing and negotiations alike can deliver no more than partial success, delaying but not ending Iran's nuclear program. Indeed, Ali Larijani, a former parliament speaker and now hardline adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warned this week that an attack would force Iran to make the dash for a nuclear arsenal. Only if the regime itself, or some replacement, decides to abandon its nuclear ambitions would the threat disappear. Each has happened since the invention of the atom bomb, but this kind of total climbdown is rare and hard to engineer..Fortunately, Iran's circumstances have changed in ways that should make at least a negotiated nuclear rollback possible. Masoud Pezeshkian ran for Iran's presidency last year on a pledge to reopen nuclear talks, get sanctions lifted and revive the economy. Khamenei let him win for the same reason; falling living standards were contributing to a collapse in support for the regime..With sanctions still in full force, however, Pezeshkian has been unable to deliver on his promise of greater prosperity. Closer ties with China and Russia haven't offset Western sanctions. Even the official, understated figures for inflation remain above 30%, as they have since 2018. The rial's street value has fallen by more than 60% against the US dollar in the last 12 months alone. There are blackouts and water shortages. Popular resentment is simmering, prompting a search for scapegoats..Read more: President Raisi's death in helicopter crash exposes Iran's ageing fleet.Conservative legislators forced Pezeshkian's economy minister, former central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, to resign on March 2. A day later, Khamenei pushed the president's deputy, Javad Zarif, a leading dove and leader of Iran's negotiating team for the 2015 nuclear deal, to do the same..It's pointless to debate now the wisdom of Trump's first-term decision to abandon the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Iran has already advanced its enrichment program and uranium stockpiles at least as high and fast as critics of the deal justifiably feared would happen as soon as it expired in October of this year. What matters is that a new settlement that overcomes the weaknesses of the first is feasible — and far preferable to war. But that will require Trump to do some things he generally isn't keen on, including relying on allies for help, even as he starts a trade war with them..The problem is lack of time, says Singh, now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "We still don't even know who in the Trump administration has been tasked with this issue," he said, and it's no better on the other side. Khamenei rebuffed Trump's offer of direct talks because it was accompanied by threats. Some hawks in Tehran see the latest US military moves as a prelude to war that's best deflected by preemptive strikes..Britain, France and Germany – the so-called EU3 – have been working on the Iran nuclear issue since the early 2000s. Together with the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, they're on top of the technical detail in ways that Trump's tumultuous administration of outsiders can't be. Unlike the US, they also still have the standing to invoke so-called snapback sanctions under the JCPOA, which they never abandoned. They would probably have to start that process by July to be able to finish by the October deadline..Another resource more available to Trump today than during his first term is the good offices of the Gulf States, which have engaged with Tehran since and could serve as mediators with much of their own to offer. Gulf bankers and officials are becoming regular visitors to Tehran, where the JCPOA wasn't popular either, because it never delivered the sanctions relief promised..In fact, to entice all sides, this nuclear deal would have to be much broader than the last. To satisfy Washington and Israel, it would need to involve an intensive long-term inspection regime and cover not only the nuclear issue, but also Iran's missile systems and aggressive use of proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. To draw in the Gulf states, these would need to be included in the process in ways they weren't in 2015. To engage Iran, there would need to be ironclad guarantees of sanctions relief, as well as some wider security arrangement for the region that makes the risks involved in a nuclear breakout seem unattractive..In other words, this is going to be messy and will require unwanted concessions from all sides. The only approach guaranteed to have still less predictable outcomes would be a campaign of airstrikes against Iran's deeply buried nuclear program and missile capabilities. So the sooner serious negotiations start, the better..Read also:.🔒 Netanyahu can seize a strategic opening after Iran's failed missile assault: Marc Champion🔒 Fall of the Assad regime shows Russia, Iran, Hamas made a bad bet: Hal BrandsTrump's missteps: South Africa, nuclear power and Iran – Andrew Kenny.© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.

With Trump at the helm of the USA, is war with Iran inevitable?: Marc Champion

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