Gold eyes fresh record highs in 2026 after stunning 64% rally in 2025

Key Topics:Gold surged 64% in 2025; forecast to rise 7% to $4,610 in 2026.Central bank buying and investor demand remain key price drivers.Analysts warn of potential slowdown, volatility, and market consolidation..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Leslie Hook in LondonThe gold price is set to extend its historic rally to hit fresh highs in 2026, although analysts expect the metal’s advance to slow after a year of stunning gains, according to a Financial Times survey.The price of bullion, which soared 64 per cent in 2025, will rise by nearly 7 per cent to reach $4,610 per troy ounce by the end of this year, according to the average forecast of 11 analysts.Many of the factors behind bullion’s blistering rally in 2025 are expected toremain intact this year, said analysts, including buying by emerging marketcentral banks and investor demand for haven assets.The most bullish prediction was for $5,400 per troy ounce — implying a gain of 25 per cent — from Nicky Shiels of refinery MKS Pamp, who said other analysts’ estimates had been “persistently too timid” in recent years.“We are only in the early innings of the debasement cycle,” she said, a reference to how some investors are shifting assets into gold as a hedge against the US dollar, which weakened sharply last year.Gold hit a record high of just under $4,550 per troy ounce in intraday trading on Dec 26, propelled in part by the US blockade of Venezuela. It has since fallen back slightly, amid a volatile end to year for precious metal prices. With many analysts’ attributing gold’s rise to investor flows, Lina Thomas ofGoldman Sachs said there was “significant upside” to her forecast of $4,900 forthe end of the year “in a scenario where there’s additional investordiversification”.She added that investors’ allocations to gold remained low and estimated that for every 0.01 percentage point by which US investors increase their portfolios’ allocation to bullion, the price would rise by around 1.4 per cent.Investors and analysts largely failed to foresee the ferocity of last year’s rally, on average predicting a price of $2,795 by the end of 2025, compared with the $4,314 at which it closed the year. The survey reveals a large divergence between the most bearish and most bullish calls, with $1,900 separating the highest and lowest forecasts.The gold price is becoming “harder to predict”, said Peter Taylor, head ofcommodity strategy at Macquarie Group, because it has been driven largely by investor sentiment and has become disconnected from supply and demand fundamentals.Taylor, whose forecast of $4,200 for the fourth quarter of 2026 — implying a small fall over the course of the year — is among the most bearish, added he expects “we will see more macro news stability.”FT Gold Price Survey 2026*some estimates denote a Q4 2026 average price forecastOther bullish analysts point to central bank buying as a key booster for prices. Natasha Kaneva of JPMorgan expects central bank purchases of around 755 tonnes during 2026. Although slightly lower than previous years, that could still push prices towards $6,000 by 2028, she said.At the same time, a number of analysts are taking the view that gold could fall this year.The most bearish forecast comes from Rhona O’Connell at StoneX, who said prices could drop to $3,500 in a market that is becoming “overcrowded”.“The majority of the tailwinds for the price have already been taken on board,” said O’Connell. “My feeling is that, barring a black swan event, there probably is not another wave of this investment to come.”She highlighted the upcoming court decision on Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, who is contesting efforts by President Donald Trump to fire her, as a potential driver of the price in the near term. A ruling in favour of Cook, which would be viewed as supportive of the central bank’s independence, could weigh on gold, she said.Natixis’s Bernard Dahdah pointed to bearish factors such as declining jewellery demand and the eventual end of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle, which is expected next year. He forecasts gold prices will average $4,200 during the fourth quarter of this year.“At current price levels, we are already seeing signs of demand destructionwithin the jewellery sector, and central bank demand has also slowed down,” he said. “We think 2026 will be a year of price consolidation.”© 2026 The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gold eyes fresh record highs in 2026 after stunning 64% rally in 2025

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