Nvidia's trillion-dollar reset: Cheapest since 2019 despite record profits

Nvidia's stock has shed roughly $1 trillion in value since May, now trading at 18 times forward earnings — cheaper than the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and even Hershey. The drop isn't about weakening fundamentals: profit estimates keep rising, and Nvidia still commands 97% of the server GPU market. Instead, capital has rotated toward memory and storage plays like Micron, up 229% this year, and rivals AMD and Intel, as investors diversify their AI bets. Analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish, with average price targets implying over 50% upside — a reminder that sentiment, not earnings, is driving the current slide..By Jeran Wittenstein and Rainier Harris.After losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in less than two months, Nvidia Corp.’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom kicked off and sent the shares into the stratosphere.The chipmaker’s graphics processing units, or GPUs, still dominate the artificial intelligence data center market. But the stock has tumbled 16% since hitting an all-time high on May 14, as investors rejigger the AI trade by ditching Nvidia in favor of competing semiconductor manufacturers, particularly those in the memory market. The selloff has Nvidia, not long ago the hottest stock on Wall Street, trading at 18 times earnings projected over the next 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The last time the shares were this inexpensive was early 2019. To get a sense of how dramatically it has fallen off, the erstwhile market leader is now cheaper than the S&P 500 Index, which is priced above 20 times forward earnings, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index, which is at almost 23 times.The stock was up 0.5% early in Wednesday’s session..Nvidia’s shrinking valuation isn’t the result of a deteriorating outlook. On the contrary, Wall Street analysts have been raising their profit estimates for the coming quarters. Instead, the selloff shows how much the AI trade is shifting to other areas, such as memory and storage stocks like Micron Technology Inc. Even Nvidia rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Intel Corp. have seen their share prices double or even triple this year.“Sentiment has moved on,” said Michael Bailey, director of research at Fulton Breakefield Broenniman. “You’re seeing these companies where expectations were very low — the Microns of the world — stealing the spotlight.” Nvidia is expected to deliver the fourth-fastest revenue growth in the the S&P 500 this year, but it’s still cheaper than about half of the stocks in the index, including candy maker Hershey Co. and the utility Dominion Energy Inc., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Considering how steady Nvidia’s revenue growth and profitability have proven to be, the company looks undervalued at current levels, according to Randy Hare, director of equity research at Huntington Bank.“Stocks follow earnings,” said Hare, who’s betting Nvidia shares will resume their climb in the coming months. “It’s a consistent performer.”.After soaring more than 1,100% from the end of 2022 through 2025 amid surging demand for its GPUs, Nvidia’s shares have stalled. They’re up just 5.6% in 2026, trailing the S&P 500’s 9.6% gain and the Nasdaq 100’s 16% rise. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index has jumped 74%, putting it on pace for its best year since 2003.The chip index is being led by Micron, which is benefiting from soaring prices for high-bandwidth memory chips. It’s up 229% in 2026 after soaring 239% in 2025 to also lead the gauge. Nvidia, on the other hand, is the third-worst performer in the benchmark of 30 semiconductor-related stocks. It was the second-best stock in the index in 2024 and in the middle of the pack last year.Underscoring the growing disconnect, last month Nvidia’s correlation to the chip index sank to the lowest since 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.“The stock ran really far, really fast for a period of time,” said Eric Clark, chief investment officer at Accuvest Global Advisors, which owns Nvidia shares. “It was a very crowded trade. And then there were other things that the market wanted to also get exposure to. And so Nvidia was a bit of a source of funds to fund some of those other trades.”For now, that competition — not just from AMD and Intel but also from its biggest customers like Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc., who are increasingly deploying their own custom made chips — is a major factor holding back Nvidia’s stock price. However, the company’s market share has hardly been dented as demand for equipment going into new data centers remains strong. Nvidia had 97% of the server GPU market at the end of 2025, up from 95% at the end of 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence..Nvidia earnings hit market as AI anxiety peaks.That explains why Wall Street is so enthusiastic about Nvidia’s revenue and earnings growth. The chipmaker is projected to deliver $228 billion in profits on sales of $393 billion in fiscal 2027, which ends Jan. 31. That would represent an expansion of 90% and 82%, respectively, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The estimate for profit in particular has risen 13% over the past three months.That’s one of the key factors keeping investing pros bullish on Nvidia. Of the 82 analysts tracked by Bloomberg that cover Nvidia, only three have hold ratings and one recommends selling. Their average price target of $302, implies a gain of more than 50% over the next 12 months, the highest among the so-called Magnificent Seven tech giants. Indeed, it’s Nvidia’s ability to thrive in past periods of multiple contraction that should give investors confidence in owning the stock now, according to Fulton Breakefield’s Bailey. “It’s been a rough run but we’ve seen that before and we’ve seen pretty rapid compression and a pretty rapid recovery,” he said. “Bulls are just going to have to hold their breath here.”Tech Chart of the Day.© 2026 Bloomberg L.P..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here. Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Nvidia's trillion-dollar reset: Cheapest since 2019 despite record profits

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