Second hand Rolex, Patek Philippe booming again as Crypto Bros grab their bling: Andrea Felsted

Key topics:Pre-owned luxury watch prices show signs of recoveryCrypto and stocks boost demand for high-end timepiecesTariff fears and fashion shifts affect market dynamics.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..By Andrea Felsted.Crypto bros are reaching for pricey timepieces once more. After a dramatic boom-and-bust in the values at which luxury watches changed hands over the past five years, the secondary market is past its nadir. But with persistent uncertainty about tariffs and a broader slump in the luxury sector, there’s still time to get a decent deal on a Rolex.To recap: Interest in watches exploded during the pandemic, lockdowns prompted people to divert money they would have spent on vacations into luxury goods and the first choice for many men was a watch.With the supply of new watches constrained – Rolex is expected to make more than 1.1 million watches this year, with Patek Philippe producing about 70,000 and Audemars Piguet about 50,000, according to Bank Vontobel AG estimates – waiting lists to purchase new models from retailers grew, and many buyers turned to the second-hand market, sending prices for popular timepieces soaring.Add in roaring stock markets and skyrocketing cryptocurrencies, and by spring 2022 the secondary values of the most hyped names – the Rolex Daytona, the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak and the Patek Philippe Nautilus — had risen to many multiples of their cost in a store. But then markets gyrated, crypto slumped and interest rates spiked, forcing many speculators who’d borrowed to amass large collections to sell.There are signs that the market has stabilised and may be turning a corner. The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index, which tracks prices for the 50 most-traded models by transaction value, has recovered from its post-pandemic low at the end of January, when measured in US dollars. (The index in sterling hasn’t shown the same appreciation because a weaker dollar makes US listings less expensive for UK buyers.).But the improvement isn’t just down to currency swings. Research platform WatchCharts’ Overall Market Index, composed of 300 watches from the top 10 luxury brands, fell 0.3% in the second quarter compared with the first, the slowest quarterly rate of decline since 2022..Luxury demand, particularly in the US, is correlated with the performance of financial assets. Stock markets have shrugged off April’s tariff trauma, while Bitcoin is up almost 20% this year, reaching a record $112,000 this week..Watches of Switzerland Group Plc saw buyers hold off after President Donald Trump’s so-called Liberation Day. But this hiatus was short-lived, and demand for both new and pre-owned models has bounced back..Read more:.Winners and losers in Luxury’s new order: Andrea Felsted.Tariffs may also be affecting the market. The levies aren’t payable on a Swiss watch that’s already in the US and then sold to a US buyer. This could be stimulating interest, particularly as prices for new watches escalate. Nine brands tracked by Morgan Stanley raised US prices in the second quarter. At the same time, much of the supply that was accumulated during the boom years has now been sold.Meanwhile,Rolex introduced a Certified Pre-Owned program two years ago. This provides comfort to buyers that they are getting the real thing, but adds a premium of about 30%, according to WatchCharts.Finally, values fell to such an extent that buyers’ interest was piqued, particularly for the big three private brands — Rolex, Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe, which account for about 60% of the secondary market. They led the previous boom and bust, and are at the forefront of the recovery this year..WatchChart’s Rolex Market Index, for example, has gained 15% over the past five years, compared with the 25% increase in US consumer prices between May 2020 and May 2025. So, adjusting for inflation, a pre-owned Rolex is better value than five years ago. .Meanwhile, just under 50% of Rolex models still in production are trading at a premium to their retail price, according to WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley. At the peak, most Rolexes were changing hands at more than their store costs.But unless the threat of tariffs sends buyers scrambling for secondhand timepieces, creating a new bubble, there’s probably no need to rush in. Even well-off consumers are more inclined to buy luxury goods when they feel wealthy and confident about the future. While stock markets have so far shrugged off uncertainty, continued nervousness around tariffs, the direction of global economies as well as instability in the Middle East could keep buyers on the sidelines.Demand from Asia, the biggest market for new Swiss watches, also remains in the doldrums reflecting China’s luxury contraction. This potentially means more chance of getting your hands on a new in-demand timepieces in other parts of the world. While most steel Rolexes have wait lists, some precious metal models are available in stores.Consequently, Swiss watch exports have been volatile. Shipments to the US rose almost 150% in April, as retailers sought to stock up ahead of tariffs. This was partly reversed in May, when exports to the US fell 25%. Underlining the fragility, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry warned that while exports since the start of the year were up 1.1% by the end of May, this didn’t reflect sales to consumers, which were less positive..Fashion may be playing a part too. Jewelry is booming across the luxury industry. This is led by the women’s market, but more men are buying bracelets from Cie Financiere Richemont SA’s Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, for example. If this trend spreads, a timepiece many no longer be the first choice for many men.The clock is clearly ticking on the slump in secondhand watch values. But it’s not too late for discerning buyers to grab some bargain bling..© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Second hand Rolex, Patek Philippe booming again as Crypto Bros grab their bling: Andrea Felsted

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