Resistance to Tripartite Alliance, Zuma Presidency at NUMSA Special Congress – likely split from COSATU

There’s a lot going on at the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa’s (Numsa) special conference in Boksburg. The conference has attracted a lot of attention since it’s being held to address some of the contentious issues facing organised labour in South Africa, such as the emergence of new, often more aggressive groups like AMCU on the mines, and whether or not COSATU is too close to the Zuma government. Numsa is deciding whether or not it should withdraw from the umbrella federation of COSATU, and whether or not it will support the ANC in upcoming elections – pretty serious stuff. In this interview, labour analyst Andrew Levy shares some of his thoughts on the matter – including his interpretation of Numsa’s decision to invite suspended COSATU general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi to its special congress. All eyes will be on Boksburg as the future direction and political destiny of organised labour is decided. – FD

To watch this CNBC Power Lunch video click hereandres Levy - Numsa

ALEC HOGG:   The National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) kicked off its special congress.  It will be underway for the next four days and it will decide where the Union will be heading, what its affiliations will be like with both COSATU and the ANC.  Joining us on the line to unpack it is Andrew Levy, a labour analyst from Andrew Levy and Associates.  Well, one of the first bits of news to come out of the congress Andrew is that Andrew Chirwa, who was elected – unopposed – as General Secretary, has called for Jacob Zuma, the President of the country, to resign.  Is this a surprise?

ANDREW LEVY:  No, I don’t think it’s a surprise, simply because the antipathy of NUMSA in particular towards Zuma as a personality, is very well established.  It’s also clear that NUMSA believes that COSATU generally, is far too close to the Zuma regime, so to speak.  So no, I’m not surprised by that.  I think what everyone is going to be waiting for, is to see real signs of the possibility of a split within COSATU and I would certainly think that’s at least 50/50, if not slightly better than that.  Given the current state of disarray within NUM with AMCU: if the second-biggest union in the country, which is NUMSA, were to leave COSATU, I think it would really cast – well, not so much of a question mark – but it would mean that COSATU’s long reign was now over.  Of course, that leaves the huge question: what fills the vacuum?

ALEC HOGG:   Chirwa is the President, not the General Secretary.  Andrew, take us through the idea of Vavi coming to represent or to talk at this congress.  Is that also a significant step?

ANDREW LEVY:   Yes, I think it is and I also think it’s unlikely that he would have been given the invitation and/or the platform, unless there was some indication as to what was going to be said.  I think at its mildest, it’s going to be very severe criticism of the ANC and Zuma administration.  At its most dramatic, it is going to be some form of announcement of a split, and it is not impossible for that to happen, for Vavi to certainly be the General Secretary of some form of alliance, which will then take on COSATU.  He has all of the experience, he has the reputation, and certainly, NUMSA have been loudest in championing him.  I think the fact that they’re giving him a platform is as I said, if nothing else, it’s certainly a couple of fingers waved in the direction of Nkandla.

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