AGOA lifeline: Ginsberg says US dealmakers are ready, but Pretoria’s missing in action

South Africa’s trade future with the US hangs in the balance. Speaking to Alec Hogg from California, Anthony Ginsberg, founder of GinsGlobal Index Funds, says Washington’s dealmakers are eager to cut tariffs and revive AGOA — but Pretoria’s lack of representation and lingering ideology are stalling progress. With 600 American companies already in SA and billions in investment waiting, Ginsberg warns that without a business-minded ambassador and pragmatic leadership, the window of opportunity could close fast..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.Anthony Ginsberg has spent over three decades in the United States, working on Wall Street and building deep connections in the global financial world. Yet when he looks back to South Africa, he sees a country sitting on a mountain of opportunity - but one that’s slipping further behind because of politics and paralysis.Speaking to Alec Hogg from California, Ginsberg, the founder of Ginsberg Global, says Washington’s dealmakers are ready to give South Africa a new lease on life through AGOA - the African Growth and Opportunity Act. But while the Americans are waiting at the table, Pretoria still hasn’t shown up.“There’s a ton of American capital looking for a home,” he says. “The US wants to do business with South Africa. They see us as geopolitically important. They just don’t want us falling into the laps of China or Russia. But they expect engagement. You can’t send nobody to Washington and expect things to move.”Ginsberg’s frustration is not abstract. The US has more than 600 companies operating in South Africa - from energy and mining to finance and agriculture. They’re still committed to the country, but with no ambassador in Washington and no full-time trade delegation, the Americans are starting to lose patience. “Minister Parks Tau is trying,” Ginsberg says, “but he’s negotiating with one hand tied behind his back. There’s nobody on the ground.”The lack of representation is more than a diplomatic failure - it’s costing South Africa money. AGOA, which gave South African exporters duty-free access to the American market, expired at the end of September. That means goods like cars, citrus, nuts, and wine are now facing tariffs of up to 30 percent. “That’s massive,” Ginsberg warns. “You can’t compete when you’re hit with that kind of penalty.”AGOA’s renewal depends on Congress, which has been frozen by a government shutdown and political wrangling. “It’s like watching a Springbok try in slow motion,” Ginsberg says. “We’re halfway there, but without pressure from Pretoria, it could easily stall.”He says the Americans are not the problem. They’re dealmakers. Trump’s former trade team - now back in the mix as the US prepares for another election cycle - includes bankers, corporate lawyers, and Wall Street veterans. “These guys cut deals, not speeches. They like numbers. Trump respects big numbers. If South Africa came to him with a multi-billion-dollar rare earth or energy deal, that would get his attention,” Ginsberg says.The opportunities are enormous. South Africa has vast reserves of rare earth minerals - the same materials China has been restricting in global supply chains. “We could be in the pound seat,” he says. “We’ve got what America needs - minerals, energy potential, and a strategic port at Simon’s Town that’s geopolitically critical.”So what’s standing in the way? Ginsberg doesn’t hesitate. “Ideology. We’ve got to tone down the anti-Western rhetoric and the politics that scare investors. The Americans are pragmatic. They’re not asking for massive reforms — just clarity on land expropriation and fair treatment for their companies.”He points to India as a model. “India started with empowerment policies like BEE. But over time, they narrowed it to focus on the public sector and made it investment-friendly. We could do the same. You don’t need to scrap transformation — you just make it smarter.”South Africa’s biggest weakness, he says, is its absence. “You can’t fly in for three months and disappear. You need a trade-minded ambassador in Washington who’s there every day. The UK did that with Lord Mandelstam — he got deals over the finish line. We’ve had nobody for years.”Alec Hogg agrees, noting that South Africa’s past ambassadors to the US have often been political appointees, not business experts. “You can’t send a politician to negotiate with a businessman,” he says. “You need someone who understands balance sheets, capital flows, and deal-making — someone like Trevor Manuel, Bobby Godsell, or Sipho Nkosi.”Ginsberg nods. “Exactly. Americans respond to people who speak their language — results, investment, growth. Send them a trade veteran who can talk to Fortune 500 CEOs, not someone reading from an ideological script.”While Pretoria stalls, Ginsberg says smaller African nations are racing ahead. “Tanzania’s ambassador visits Washington a dozen times a year. She’s got sister-city agreements with Detroit and Houston. She’s doing trade missions back and forth. She cut tariffs down to 10 percent. Meanwhile, we’re still waiting for our envoy to even arrive.”For Ginsberg, the tragedy is that South Africa could be a success story. “We’ve got talent, resources, and goodwill. The Americans want to invest in mining, agriculture, and energy. They’re willing to help us power smelters and build infrastructure. But they won’t wait forever.”His message to Pretoria is simple: get off the sidelines. “Send your best people. Build relationships. Show you’re open for business. We’re losing time — and the window’s closing fast.”Ginsberg says even symbolic gestures could help. “If we showed goodwill — for example, re-engaging diplomatically with countries like Israel — it would send a signal that we’re serious about rebuilding relations with the West.”In the end, he says, it’s not about ideology but survival. “South Africa’s unemployment is a ticking bomb. You need capital to grow. The Americans have it. They want to spend it. But they expect us to meet them halfway.”He pauses. “I’m hopeful. The US is ready. It’s not rocket science — it’s just common sense. All Pretoria needs to do is show up.”Alec Hogg closes the conversation with his trademark bluntness. “We’ve always been a country blessed by our people and cursed by our governors. The opportunity is right there. All the government has to do is open its eyes.”Ginsberg smiles. “Exactly. Just open the doors. The rest will follow.”

AGOA lifeline: Ginsberg says US dealmakers are ready, but Pretoria’s missing in action

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