ANC losing votes in strongholds “in all directions”: The Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman

In the latest edition of the Electoral Roadshow with Chris Steyn, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman dissects last night’s by-election results. It was another good night for the Patriotic Alliance (PA). It took the ward in Oudtshoorn with 44 percent of the vote - up from 12 percent. “Now that's a stunning rise. And this is the PA's second consecutive ward pick up over the ANC in two weeks…So the PA are continuing to hurt the ANC.” In another blow to the African National Congress (ANC), the party managed to win only 47% of the vote in Dunoon, Cape Town. “That's a stunning drop of 18 percentage points. It means that in this stronghold, the ANC fell below the 50% mark. That is a very worrying number for the second largest party in the City of Cape Town.” Reviewing the party’s overall by-election performance in recent months, Sussman adds: “...what we saw towards the end of last year and the beginning of this year in township areas in Gauteng, the ANC losing votes in its strongholds in all directions…”.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.25)Welcome to another edition of the Electoral Roadshow with me, Chris Steyn and elections analyst, Wayne Sussman. Welcome, Wayne.Wayne Sussman (00:11.26)Good morning Chris, great to be speaking with you again.Chris Steyn (00:15.426)There were two by-elections last night. Let us start with Outshoorn.Wayne Sussman (00:21.724)Thank you. So yes, both by-elections were in the Western Cape last night. When we actually look at the whole range of by-elections coming up, the majority are in the Western Cape, and that's obviously not reflective of the country. It's not the most populous part of the country. But yeah, let's start in Oudtshoorn. And this is in the Bridgton area of Oudtshoorn…And the ANC won this very narrowly in 2021. There were three parties within two percentage points of each other….So always was going to be a difficult task for the ANC. But the other very important thing to understand about Oudtshoorn and politics in 2021, was that there are only 25 seats in the council and nine seats won elections. What I'm trying to say is that…Politics is very fragmented in this part of the Western Cape. I want to repeat that 25 seats and nine parties won seats onto the council. So when we look at the 2024 results on the ballot year, it was the Patriotic Alliance, which was the most popular party with about 40% of the vote. The DA second on about 30% and the ANC in the 20s. So even though it was an ANC ward, the ANC didn't do well here in 2024. So another key thing in this by-election was that the Democratic Alliance, which came second here in 2021, which came second here when we consider the 2024 results, did not contest and there were a lot of votes on the table. And as I said earlier about those nine parties that played out in this ward where the party which came fourth got 6% of the vote, but then you had a whole host of parties getting 3%, 4%, 5%. So there was a lot on the table here. And the three main parties on the ballot were the ANC who held the ward, the PA and then ICOSA…Wayne Sussman (02:50.214)…which is a regional party. And the Patriotic Alliance wins this ward. They won it with 44 percent of the vote up from 12 percent. Now that's a stunning rise. And this is the PA's second consecutive ward pick up over the ANC in two weeks. The last time we spoke, they won a ward of the ANC in the Beyers Naude area of the Sarah Baartman District…in the Eastern Cape. And yesterday, they won this award. So the PA are continuing to hurt the ANC. What's interesting is, even though the ANC lost the seat, because the ballot sheet was much shorter, they actually also grew in this by-election. They grew from 22% to 34 % because they gained only five parties in the ballot. And then ICOSA coming in third with 21 % up slightly. So how did the PA do it? In 2021, there's an area called the Bridgton Secondary School, which is a DA area. And the DA were not on the ballot. And if we look at the turnout here, the turnout was very low here, but the PA won 75% of the vote. And they actually swept the other two voting districts, including winning the ANC Stronghold. And this is another great result for the PA.Chris, it says that, again, I said that they just won another by-election the week before, but they've now won two seats between 2021 and today in Oudtshoorn and off the ANC. And the party's momentum in the Garden Route and across the Western Cape continues, and they will be absolutely delighted with that result. Just one other point, and again, it's important. You had many parties feasting on the Ward 5 electoral pie in 2021. There are only three serious parties in the ballot here. The ANC will obviously be disappointed, but so too will the ICOSA party because there were so few parties expected. I can explain why the ANC grew, but the ICOSA hardly grew. They grew by 1 percent and…Wayne Sussman (05:13.21)…what this suggests is that small parties are continuing to shift over to the Patriotic Alliance and that a party like ICOSA weren't able to grow their base. They would be greatly concerned. Of course, they need to be greatly concerned and the PA march on from Oudtshoorn and to other parts of Western Cape.Chris Steyn (05:32.749)Okay, let's go to Cape Town.Wayne Sussman (05:37.074)Great, we're going to to Dunoon, which is Ward 104, very close to the Killarney racetrack, near the Killarney Gardens area, a very impoverished part of the city of Cape Town. In 2021, the ANC won just under 65% here, which is basically two thirds majority. So it's a very safe ANC.Last night in the by-election… the ANC won 47 % of the vote. That's a stunning drop of 18 percentage points. It means that in this stronghold, the ANC fall below the 50% mark. That is a very worrying number for the second largest party in the city of Cape Town. So who gained at their expense? The Economic Freedom Fighters went up from 19% to 29%. When we spoke last week, essentially across the board, the EFF had a very poor night. But here we are in a metropolitan area in the City of Cape Town, which is the second most populous metropolitan area in the country. And the EFF is getting close to 30% to the vote. They will be delighted with this number and they will believe that in other townships in the city of Cape Town, that they can make serious inroads. A very important result for Julius Malema. The result was equally important for the Democratic Alliance, which doubled its percentage support from 8% to 16%. That is a significant growth. We expect the DA to come under pressure from the Patriotic Alliance on the Cape Flats. But if the DA is able to replicate results and get over not just 10%, 16% of the vote across the board in townships like Dunoon, that is a very good indicator for them to retain their outright majority. Another party I want to make a mention of is the South African Communist Party. Last week, we spoke about a by-election in the Alfred Nzo District …in the Winnie Mandela municipality where they did well, where they came second.Wayne Sussman (07:58.194)They didn't do so well here, but you and I have spoken many times that they're getting 1% to the vote. They got 4 % to the vote. And that's not a good result. But if you're getting 4% in many township wards in the City of Cape Town, you're going to have some representation on the City Council. So essentially, what we saw towards the end of last year and the beginning of this year in township areas in Gauteng, the ANC losing votes in its strongholds in all directions, that played out here in this Dunoon by-election yesterday. This is concerning the ANC. If I have to take a step back, yes, the ANC lost a seat in Oudtshoorn, but they essentially largely held onto their support and were able to basically grow because it was a smaller ballot sheet.The result yesterday in Dunoon is the one that we’re really worried about. And it's clear from Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg, Tshwane to the West Rand area, to the Sedibeng area, now to the City of Cape Town, of course, eThekwini. The ANC has a big challenge in township areas. And this is something we need to watch going forward.Chris Steyn (09:24.758)Okay, so we have a three week break until the next by-election,Wayne Sussman (09:31.174)That's correct. And this was a difficult night for the ANC, but in three weeks, Chris, I mean, we might have to wait four weeks to speak again because there's only one by-election. And that is in Sahkisizwe in the Chris Hani district. Now, who comes from there? The national chairperson of the ANC, Gwede Mantashe. I think they won about 80 % to the vote here last time. A super safe ANC seat. And this might be in a rural area. This might be an ANC stronghold, but for the ANC, they want to use this by-election to assert their narrative that in places like the Eastern Cape, it's a different story than what we saw last night and that their support is resolutely strong. The ANC will hope to get about 80% to the vote, if not more, when we gather again in three weeks.If I just look at the map ahead, and I'm happy to also review the first three months of the year, this year is going so fast. We have now, including that… by-election, 10 by-elections coming up. Still a lot of them are in the Western Cape. And as I said in the beginning, the majority of South African citizens are not in the Western Cape. It points to the contestation in that province. We're going to see by-elections where the DA will be under pressure in Stellenbosch. The ANC will be under pressure in a place like Uniondale in George. The DA will have some safe seats in the Saldana Bay area. We're also going to see one very important by-election in an ANC stronghold in Evaton in Emfuleni. Now, I've said this before, Emfuleni is the largest or the most populous non-metropolitan municipality. That's the only Gauteng by-election coming up, and we're going to be watching that closely. And we also have some by-elections in the Northern Cape, some very close seats. And the Northwest province. Now, the seats in the Northwest province are safe ANC seats, but we're going to be looking at the EFF and Action SA where they can make inroads there. Nothing in KwaZulu-Natal, which is the second most populous municipality coming up. Maybe there will be after the next 10 by-elections. Nothing in Mpumalanga, nothing in the Free State and nothing in the Limpopo province. So that's what's coming up…Wayne Sussman (11:57.202)…and it's going to be an interesting few weeks.Chris Steyn (12:00.459)And how has the political or the party political landscape changed over three months of by-elections?Wayne Sussman (12:08.387)Yeah, so we of course are waiting for that big date. I'm hoping that Minister Hlabisa from the Ministry of Corporate Governance proclaims it so I can plan my year properly. But we know that there's a registration date coming up in June. The building blocks for the election are being put in motion. So if we review the first three months of the year, again, that theme of the ANC struggling in heartland townships. This is something they have to turn around. And this, I think, would be the thing which worries them the most. The other key theme is the IFP in KwaZulu-Natal. And yes, these are rural areas, areas where not many voters are. The IFP…they're showing up. It's what's in front of them. And they're doing very, very well. So this is a key thing, is how well is the IFP going to do in KwaZulu-Natal? We've noticed that uMkhonto weSizwe have not been able to replicate their showing from 2024. There was a theme we saw in 2025, but they are still on track to do well and hurt the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal. We've seen the ANC and certainly the EFF continue to struggle in KwaZulu-Natal. So we're seeing the IFP, and to a lesser extent, the MK, the major factor there. And then the Patriotic Alliance from the Northern Cape to the Western Cape platteland, beyond the City of Cape Town to that Sarah Baartman district in the Eastern Cape. They've picked up many wards in 2026. They have a lot of momentum. Now again, these are not areas with large concentrations of voters, but they are showing up and winning wards. They have picked up two wards in the last two weeks. They'll have a lot of momentum. Just a comment on the DA. Last night, getting 16% in an area where they've struggled in the past, like Dunoon. We've seen them do well in the numerous Johannesburg by-elections. The DA have concerns, of course, about the PA and the Freedom Front, but generally are doing very well in metropolitan areas. And we're going to…Wayne Sussman (14:34.994)…that's a trend which we've seen develop. So those are the major trends we've seen play out in the first three months and this year is flying past us Chris.Chris Steyn (14:46.903)Thank you. That was Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman on the electoral road show with me Chris Steyn. Thank you Wayne.Wayne Sussman (14:55.506)Thank you.

ANC losing votes in strongholds “in all directions”: The Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman

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