In the latest Electoral Road Show with Chris Steyn and analyst Wayne Sussman, he shares the eNCA-MarkData Local Government Elections Survey results for eThekwini and Tshwane. It shows that former President Jacob Zuma’s MKP is polling at 48% and heading for an outright majority in eThekwini with the ANC way below at 14,5% while the DA came in at 25,2%. “The ANC is on track across KwaZulu-Natal, not just eThekwini, to lose about five hundred councillors on election day…This is going to be a devastating result.” Sussman adds that having reviewed the six major metropolitan areas in South Africa, “not once has the African National Congress been the leading party in our polls… this is absolutely unprecedented.” Another unprecedented result is that now “the DA is bigger in Johannesburg than in Tshwane”. In Tshwane, the poll has the DA in the lead at 33,9% to the ANC’s 24,9%. Listen to Sussman unpack these latest poll results in detail and give an election preview with six Metros surveyed..Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.336)Welcome to the Electoral Road Show with analyst supremo Wayne Sussman and me, Chris Steyn. Welcome, Wayne.Wayne (00:09.134)Thank you, Chris, and I'm looking forward to exploring the last two of our major metropolitan areas today.Chris Steyn (00:16.064)eThekwini and Tshwane, but before we go there, please recap for our viewers how the polling is done.Wayne (00:25.434)Thank you so much. So we polled over one thousand people in each of the six metropolitan areas, so over six thousand people were polled. It was between August and September 2026. AAnd we use a mixed method across the country. But let me be clear, for eThekwini it was a hundred percent face to face. Every single interview in eThekwini was face to face, whereas in Tshwane it involved telephonic polling and face to face interviews. There's a margin of error of just over three percent over three percent. And of course, the polling was led by Mark Data and we've collaborated with them at ENCA to do this polling, specifically focusing on the six major metropolitan areas in South Africa.Chris Steyn (01:19.778)Remind us of the margin of error.Wayne (01:22.326)3% just over 3% points. And this is a large sample size. 1,000 people in each metropolitan area is a very nice sample size. And again, I just want to mention this. Of course, we are guided by the census data from 2022, but remembering that between 2022 and the closure of the voters' roll in 2026, and this is you know me, I like going to granular detail.Chris Steyn (01:26.318)Okay, let'sWayne (01:49.976)Let's say there's a new housing estate or a new university or church institution being built. We also use geospatial modeling here to see if there are any new highly densified areas which have emerged in these metropolitan areas. Just one other thing I want to say is that obviously people were polled in their language of choice, their numerators had to speak the specific language of choice there. andThese are the key things we need to bear in mind with regards to this particular survey.Chris Steyn (02:25.143)May we start with eThekwini. I'm sure former President Jacob Zuma's MKP supporters are waiting anxiously to hear the results of this polling, Wayne.Wayne (02:34.905)Sure. and I'm going to share it right away, and there we go. This is quite stunning, but as stunning as it is, it's very much in line with what happened in 2024. uMkhonto we Sizwe, who will be contesting their first ever local government election, with Apostle Phakathi as their mayoral candidate, are just short of an outright majority.And again, let me just be clear that this polling was done before former President Jacob Zuma landed up in hospital. And this interview is taking place in the early afternoon of about nine, ten days before election day. So a lot can happen. We know Jacob Zuma is not well, but according to the snapshot of this poll, he is very close to reaching the historic result. We should see an outright majority win in eThekwini, the dominant metropolitan area in KZN. Haniff Hoosen and the Democratic Alliance are second with 25.2% of the growth. And then the party which has been the dominant party in eThekwini for every single local government election is way down in third place on 14.5%. The IFP in fourth place on six percent. And then, the EFF, now if you remember, in 2021, they really tripled their support in eThewini and they are down at a very low 2.5%. And then it's the PA, Action SA and the Freedom Front Plus. So, uMkhonto we Sizwe, Chris, will be very happy with this result, with this poll, and they'll be hoping in the final few days that they can continue to chip away at the ANC, at the EFF, at parties like the National Freedom Party, and drive up that enthusiasm which we saw leading up to the polls in 2024 - and that's going to be key to see in the final days before this election campaign. Any questions on these results, Chris?Chris Steyn (04:49.889)Yes, I'd like to hear some of the questions these voters were asked, Wayne.Wayne (04:55.129)Sure. This is a very, very important question, and we've discussed this every week on your show. How well or badly run is your municipality? Essentially, the broader question is over the last five years. And remember who's currently governing: the ANC in a coalition with the EFF and a number of other smaller parties. And if you see the leading answer it's been extremely badly run. That's about thirty percent. It has not been well run, about twenty-nine percent. If you combine those two numbers, you get over the fifty eight percent mark. And then you contrast that with it's only been averagely well run, twenty seven percent, and it's been very well run, eight percent. So essentially there's a 36% generally positive view and a 58% generally negative view, putting that at negative 22 percentage points. You want to be in positive territory when you're going to the election. And this negative 22 percentage points, in my opinion, Chris, is not good for the ANC and its coalition numbers, and kind of speaks to the fact why uMkhonto we Sizwe are doing well in this poll and why the Democratic Alliance are showing up in such a robust second place. Those parties which are not currently in the governing coalition at eThekwini are doing well. And when you look at this critical question in the poll, again I said it last week, and I'll say it again: that in the many questions asked in the ENCA-MarkData poll, I think this is the best compass to see how the election's going to play out. And then the third question was: who should be mayor? And let me just say we're going to be doing a post mortem on the questions in our poll. And this question has been a funky question. and not funky in the cool 1990s sense, funky in that it's a bit off. and Haniff Hoosen by the way, came in first here at twenty four point six percent, almost in line…Wayne (07:15.875)…with where the DA is in the poll. And then Duduzane Zuma. Now just to repeat, when we did this poll, Chris, the mayoral candidate from uMkhonto we Sizwe hadn't been announced. So he wasn't particularly polled. But Duduzane Zuma, the deputy president of uMkhonto we Sizwe, coming in second at eighteen and a half percent…. Are you ready to go to the next slide, Chris?Chris Steyn (08:18.335)Yes, please. Would you like to do the demographics now or after Tshwane?Wayne (08:22.989)We can go back to the demographics after Tshwane’ that'll be great. We know that natural disasters have been a key thing facing eThekwini, a lot of adverse weather conditions. And this for us was a key issue to poll. So do you think eThekwini has done well in fixing flood damage? Almost sixty percent saying no. And essentially that's a margin of two to one. Essentially, it is more than two to one saying yes, they have done as well as they could, they deserve our report. That is not good for the ANC and its coalition partners in eThekwini, and again supports those very high numbers we saw for MKP in the poll. And then finally, Chris, Many big cities are being badly run. Who should shoulder the blame? Now, the EFF is getting 1.7%, uMkhonto we Sizwe 3.9%, the DA 5.3%. In eThekwini 75% respondents put the blame of the poor running of the major metropolitan areas on the ANC shoulders. When the ANC looks at - all parties should look at surveys and polls and certainly the ENCA MarkData Survey. This is another worrying sign on the cusp of elections. And what does this actually mean, Chris? And I've uttered this a few times. Let's say that the election results plays out as it currently is - and I want to get my numbers exactly right here, in eThekwini, okay, and you see such negative sentiment, the ANC, in my opinion, is on track across KwaZulu-Natal, not just eThekwini, to lose to lose about five hundred councillor on election day across KZN. In eThekwini they'll lose about close to two thirds between a half and two thirds of their councillors. This is going to be a devastating result.Wayne (10:42.785)And the ANC, we know Fikile Mbalula has been campaigning hard in KZN, I think in eThekwini as well. The DA have their closing rally in KwaZulu-Natal today. A lot to play for over the next few days, but the ENCA-MarkData survey is not good for the current coalition. And let me just make one point of the current coalition that I think Cyril Xaba has done a good job in stabilising the Metro and doing a better job than his predecessors as mayor, but still there's an overwhelmingly negative sentiment, which I don't think he has been able to stop and scupper. And the million dollar question for everyone, but particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, is can Jacob Zuma make a public appearance between now and election day? Can there be a closing rally for uMkhonto we Sizwe which bring up that same kind of enthusiasm we saw in May 2024, or is he going to be absent and the fireworks going to be absent 'cause then one doesn't know what kind of performance uMkhonto we Sizwe will have. I think it is very, very much dependent on Jacob Zuma.Chris Steyn (11:57.23)Okay, over to Tshwane where there is currently great unhappiness amongst its residents, Wayne.Wayne (12:03.449)Sure. So who are you going to vote for? Well, it was the Democratic Alliance. And let me just stop and pause there, Chris, before I forget to make the point. We have now reviewed the six major metropolitan areas, and we didn't review Mangaung and Buffalo City. We expect the ANC to be the leading party there, certainly in Buffalo City, to win an outright majority. Mangaung will be touch and go. But, in 2021, the ANC was the leading party in four out of the six major metropolitan areas. In Nelson Mandela Bay, the DA pipped the ANC at the post, and in the city of Cape Town the DA were overwhelming winners. We now, on the Electoral Roadshow, have reviewed the six major metropolitan areas in South Africa and not once has the African National Congress been the leading party in our polls. And remember, a poll is not a prediction of what's going to happen. But this is absolutely unprecedented. And here we round that off with a DA having an almost ten percentage point lead over the current largest party in Tshwane, the African National Congress. So the DA are in front with just under thirty four percent of the vote, the ANC down in second place with twenty-five per cent of the vote. The EFF currently in third place with twelve percent of the vote. Action A doing well with eleven per cent of the vote. The Freedom Front doing well with eight per cent of the vote. And uMkhonto we Sizwe, Chris, you'll remember in 2024, the metropolitan area where uMkhonto we Sizwe, the area in Gauteng eng where uMkhonto we Sizwe did the worst was Tshwane. And here they're getting five percent of the vote. This shows that even in the northern parts of Gauteng, in areas where Zulu is not that much spoken, uMkhonto we Sizwe is on five percent of the vote, and the PA then on two percent of the vote. So this is interesting stuff. and Chris, I just want to stop and pause here. Similarly to Ekurhuleni, similarly to Johannesburg, there are a range of options here…Wayne (14:29.934)…for the DA and the ANC to try to form coalitions. Just one other pause. According to the ENCA-MarkData Survey, the DA is bigger in Johannesburg than in Tshwane. That's quite unprecedented. Tshwane has been always more reliable for the DA than Johannesburg. And so the DA will be actually a bit disappointed in that. But if I look at these numbers, Chris, and you'll just bear with me while we do some arithmetic, the ANC and the EFF and ActionSA and the PA essentially could get you to the fifty percent mark. ANC EFF Action SA PA. You could also work: ANC EFF ActionSA MKP. For the DA, the challenge is the DA plus the Freedom Front is just over the forty percent mark. For me, a simple coalition would be a continuation of the GNU, the DA and the ANC. But again, more options for the ANC than the DA. But if the DA is gonna beat Chris, the ANC by nine, ten percentage points, political parties might want to think twice in being seen to be bolstering a weakened and beleaguered ANC.But let's look at the rest of the poll, Chris. Who should be mayor? Now this is absolutely stunning. Nasiphi Moya and again, remember what I said earlier about this question, the poll being a bit funky. But this is what the poll said. Nasiphi Moya essentially holding a six percentage point lead over the DA candidate Cilliers Brink. This is fascinating. The ENCA-MarkD ata poll says right now that ActionSA is coming fourth in the race for Tshwane by party, but who should be mayor? Nasiphi Moya in first place. This is a very, very interesting result…Wayne (16:55.694)…Cilliers Brink clearly has work to do in the last few days of this election campaign…And I want to pause here and say one caveat that we have seen in the ENCA-Mark Data poll, that incumbent mayoral candidates do enjoy name recognition. We've seen this in Nelson Mandela Bay with Babalwa Lobishe, we saw it in Johannesburg with Dada Morero, we saw it in Cape Town with Geordin Hill-Lewis. So this has been something across the ENCA-MarkData poll. However, right now, the ENCA-MarkData poll is saying that Nasiphi Moya is running essentially 16% points ahead of her party. Cilliers Brink is running 13% points behind the party. Again, a poll is a snapshot. A lot of work for Cilliers Brink to do. And ActionSAction will look at this and say, Wow, we need to put Nasiphi Moya front and centre for the rest of our campaign in Tshwane. She is doing well. Chris, it's gonna be interesting to see how the final results in Tshwane happen to match up with not just who you're gonna vote for, but also who should be mayor.Chris Steyn (18:25.741)What other critical questions did those voters respond to, Wayne?Wayne (18:29.7)Sure. So again, how well or badly run is your municipality? We look at the negatives. It has not been well run, twenty nine percent. It has been extremely badly run, twenty-seven percent, and then it has only been averagely well run twenty-seven percent, and it's been very well run twelve percent. So here is a pretty narrow gap. This is the narrowest gap, Chris, that we have seen thus far in this poll. And again, I think this points to Nasiphi Moya polling so well, and that even though, and again, we're gonna get to water now, even though Tshwane has had significant challenges, there are remnants of this governing coalition led by Nasiphi Moya, which seem to be playing well. Now, again, this question for me has been the critical question of the poll. Geordin Hill-Lewis and his administration in Cape Town, amongst the other five metros compared, is the only one which has been positive. The rest have been all negative, but we contrast this, where it is negative 18 percentage points versus Johannesburg, negative 42 percentage points. Nasiphi Moya holding up much better than Dada Morero's administration. So it's negative but not as bad as the other five metros where it's been negative. And then finally, Chris, and just a reminder: this survey was done between August and September. It was not done with the critical issue facing so many people in the east of the wonderful metropolitan area of Tshwane…where there's been a significant water crisis. So we're about to see numbers on Tshwane and water. Again, this was done before the survey. If it's negative before the survey, that's a worrying sign for the Action-SA led administration. Let's see what happens here. Do you think Tshwane has managed the challenges over the water supply? Again, by a margin of more than two to one, 63% are saying no.Wayne (20:55.94)Twenty-eight percent are saying yes. If we had to poll this question now, I think we'd be above the 70% mark. A lot of good stuff here for ActionSA, some good stuff for the ANC in the survey. This question would really scare them in the final stretch of this election campaign, Chris. Absolutely fascinating. …Chris Steyn (33:09.399)Thank you, Wayne. Would you like to sum up now that the polling for six Metros are in?Wayne (33:15.77)Sure, to sum it up, the DA are currently leading in five out of the six metros. There is only one metropolitan area where the one party is an outright majority at the stage, and that's the Democratic Alliance in Cape Town. The party which comes the next closest to an outright majority is eThekwini. The others show the DA in the thirty to forty percent range. And the question for the DA is in these final 10 days, can they get closer to that 40% range? And the question for the ANC is to prove the polls wrong, to prove the detractors wrong, to prove many of those in the media wrong, to prove many commentators wrong, and actually still finish first in Ekurhuleni, and actually still finish first in Nelson Mandela Bay, and improve their performance. Other things I'm gonna watch in the coming days, and I've said this before, and I alluded to it now. The ANC have historically engaged in a squeeze campaign in the last month of this campaign, in the last month of an election campaign. This has been blunted in 2021 and blunted in 2024. Can they find their mojo in these last few days? The Democratic Alliance equally have also squeezed out smaller parties competing in their lanes in the last month. Can they do that in their last 10 days with their massive Get out the Vote operation? And then the third party, I go back, Chris, to the four trends we saw from by elections between 2024 and the end of by elections in 2026. And this does not have to do with the metropolitan areas, but the Patriotic Alliance doing so well in the Plattland of the Northern Cape, Western Cape, and parts of the Eastern Cape. Are we going to see them show up in the last seven days and really also prove the pollsters wrong? Those are the three things I'm seeing. I'm also going to be watching Jacob Zuma's health. I'm watching whether any major candidate makes gaffes, makes mistakes. You take someone like Helen Zille, I do not think she's barely put her foot wrong in Johannesburg. Can she take her party over the finishing line without any scandals, without any gaffes, and lift…Wayne (35:40.836)…her party, not just in Johannesburg, but across Gauteng, and maybe indeed nationally. There's so much more to play for. And my final comment is this fragmentation. I've just shown you who people are going to vote for. I go back to what I said, I think at the start when we started looking at the polls. In 2016, the Local Government post-election analysis rested on four parties: the ANC, the DA, the EFF, and the Inkartha Freedom Party. Right now there are up to ten parties and one could be having a serious conversation about the day after the elections. We're in a far more fragmented political landscape and this is why it's so hard for these parties in these metropolitan areas to win outright majorities and there's gonna be a lot of interesting things to unpack in the next few days.Chris Steyn (36:34.999)Thank you. That was Analyst Supremo Wayne Sussman on the Electoral Road Show with me, Chris Steyn. Thanks, Wayne.Wayne (36:42.875)Thank you..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. 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