The Cape at the precipice of descent into a “Narco State”

The Cape is "at the precipice of descent into an effective Narco State" – and the executive leadership of the provincial or national government is not "anywhere near suitably cognizant as to how few minutes or seconds remain before reaching the proverbial midnight". This is the warning from counter-crime activist Andrew Charter, who is also the Chairman and CEO of The Nanodyn Group. Speaking to BizNews about his plans to set up a Joint Fusion Centre in the Wellington area, he explains why he believes the Cape is at a "pre-Escobarian" stage of syndicate development – and on its journey to the establishment of a "professional" class. "And at that point, you're dealing with a corporatised institution, exactly what transpired in a place like Brazil. I was very involved there in another life in the internal security domain, sitting with Crime Intelligence persons there…I'm not saying it's a six-month trajectory, but I'm very, very concerned that it's within the orbit of, you know, two Rugby World Cup cycles or three Rugby World Cup cycles, it's coming…" Charter describes what life will be like in a South Africa with "areas completely outside of state control"..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here..If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.*Please read Charter's paper titled "The Cape Narco State".Download PDFThe Cape Narco State Download.Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Chris Steyn (00:01.612).Is the Western Cape on the brink of becoming a Narco State. We speak to counter-crime activist Andrew Charter, the Chairman and CEO of Nanodyn Group. He is working on the establishment of a Joint Fusion Centre in the Wellington area. Welcome, Andrew..Andrew Charter (00:21.902).Chris, thank you very much for having me today and of course a hearty good morning to your listeners. The Cape is obviously a place which currently based on most objective observation is undergoing a tremendous period of prosperity. It's a beautiful part of the world. Economic growth is evident and community is vibrant. Culture is changing. Foreign investment is material. So there's a lot to be very positive about..My concern, however, is the long run trajectory in the nature of the criminal syndicate system resident in the Western Cape. And my sort of active hypothesis at this stage is that as much as we have this tremendous prosperity curve that we run in this part of the world, that ifwe aren't thoroughly conscious of what's transpiring in the orbit of the criminal syndicates, we may find ourselves in a position where we march down malevolent trajectory towards a narcho-state style set of circumstances. And the reference point I use in this regard is when one looks at what's transpired in some of the wonderful countries of South America, Brazil for example, which I know very, well. At some point in time, the syndicates active in that part of the world, obviously very drug-centric, accumulated a degree of sophistication over time that became very, very material..And when that transpires in circumstances where you have arguably a collapse in state competency in the South Africa or security apparatus, the central government managed from a defense intelligence or internal security point of view, that in my opinion is experiencing tremendous pressure. And I fear that we reach a flection point that irrespective of what happens on the prosperity that we all see, what transpires beneath and do we arrive at a point where the competencies of these organizations accumulate to such an extent that we are no longer capable of managing and all of a sudden, cast over our shoulder surprisingly, we arrive at a point where these organisations are so deeply entrenched, they're logistically sophisticated, they have engaged in a specialisation and a development of niché skills..Andrew Charter (02:41.832).And for all our attempts at a community level to prepare for such matters, we're in circumstances where you now have essentially a parallel state. So it's not a proposition that is intended to sow any undue concern. But I worry about this trajectory because we've seen it in other parts of the world. And we saw it at an earlier phase in Colombia, we saw it at perhaps a later phase in Mexico..And my view is that in South Africa today, we have a robust private security system, one of the most sophisticated in the world. Our citizenry have generally contributed a great degree to being conscious of security matters. to a large extent, the wall that is holding back the rapid expansion of criminal competencies across the country is very much private sector managed, in my view..And I think that we have to have a very, very local approach where in smaller communities we consider very thoughtfully and in more strategic way, what does the long run trajectory look like at a national level? Can we discern what the trajectory is at a local level and how can we best prepare? So I don't believe that the Cape is in a circumstance where tomorrow we transition into a Columbia like circumstance or what Columbia has been historically associated with, even though they've made some considerable inroads there over recent years..But I worry that a five or 10 or 15 year horizon is deeply problematical. And I don't get the sense that the state apparatus or even the provincial government apparatus is necessarily as cognizant as they should be of the extent of risk in this regard. So the proposition is how do we on a decentralised basis think about this and respond accordingly?.Chris Steyn (04:31.564).At what stage of syndicate development is the Cape at present?.Andrew Charter (04:37.718).My reading of it, and this is a layman's reading, so this is a Wellington resident's reading, but my reading of it, based on some degree of logical deduction, you know, active reading here and there and talking to the odd person who has knowledge in this regard, is that we have historically had gangs here, of course, that are very easy to define in terms of their geographic placement, in terms of their linguistic, racial or cultural bonds..And there is today a menagerie of these historical gangs, the number gangs and all the other ones that we're familiar with. They're generally located in low-income earning areas and we know all of the long run historical factors that have contributed to that based on our history. But we've also had the infusion of organised crime groups from abroad. There are groups that some people associate with being other foreigners from other parts of Southern Africa..Each one of these organisations seems to have slightly different focuses. Some dimensions of it is extortion related. A lot of it is perlemoen smuggling, other forms of narcotics trafficking, an increasing degree of kidnapping and related activities. And it's the story that South Africa is very well known for. So I think, you know, much of the community is very familiar with these things. .The problem that I see is that this historical delineation of groups is morphing. And in my perception, they are becoming, they are metastasizing. Groups are becoming more professional. The nature of their logistical activities are becoming more refined. They are becoming more technology competent. I think it's a matter of time before we start seeing things like FPV drones being used in the planning and execution of criminal activities. And like any organisation, you undergo a professional trajectory. That's what happens. And when your motivations are of a criminal nature and you start to accrue ever more revenue based on narcotics trafficking, based on it. To some degree, I think this may be associated with the fact that the Cape is undergoing prosperity. So the rising tide raises all ships, so to speak. .But we also know that one of the major challenges is, my earlier point, given the fact that we have completely dysfunctional, in my opinion, state security apparatus..Andrew Charter (07:04.41).This wonderful part of the world has become a tremendous habitat for people with very nefarious intent. And I think we're in this transition phase from, I don't know how many dozen sort of somewhat associated gangs to a point in time where we accumulate to one or two major gangs that run the entire environment. And at that point, you're dealing with a corporatised institution, exactly what transpired in a place like Brazil. I was very involved there in another life in the internal security domain, sitting with crime intelligence persons there. A city like Rio de Janeiro was run, you know, certainly around the Soccer World Cup there by four major gangs, extraordinarily competent, you know, organisations capable of mass industrial sabotage, very politically sophisticated, the lines between their engagement in the informal kind of criminal sector and the private sector or the formal sector totally blurred. They've got material financial means, they're properly legally represented, they've got the capacity to lobby the state, they've infiltrated all of the hierarchies of government. Sao Paulo state, very interestingly, one criminal organisation that runs the entirety of Sao Paulo. And I think we're somewhere on the journey to that point, to the the establishment of a professional class. And it's not just about being tattoo spangled and having come from circumstances of tremendous socio-economic challenge. It actually becomes an aspirational system. And where exactly we are on that trajectory is difficult to tell. But my sense is that we are further along that road than is necessarily appreciated. And also what happens in my perception of sophisticated criminal regime, regimes is you don't necessarily achieve an overt escalation of violence. You don't always see their powers evident on the street side. They like to remain to some degree concealed and out of view, but all of a sudden you get to a tipping point where they are so dominant, they are so be-weaponed, they are using high calibre weapons, they migrate to the point of carrying 50 calibers, which is very normal in Brazil..Andrew Charter (09:19.746).We haven't yet seen it in South Africa, but it's very normal in Brazil. They militarize. They even start to recruit persons who've got some sort of military backgrounds. And I don't think we're necessarily there, but we're moving that way. And if we aren't cognizant of this, we have a really, really big problem. And then…the very competent, well-meaning South African security company that protects your area, and most of them carry a side arm, and they very often drive alone at night, and they climb over your wall when there's an alarm. That kind of person, for all of their best will in the world, is just not equipped to deal with a militaristic-style system. And I must reiterate, I'm not saying it's a six-month trajectory, but I'm very, very concerned that it's within the orbit of, you know, two Rugby World Cup cycles or three Rugby World Cup cycles, it's coming. And we have to be cognizant of it. .And one of the examples, not to, you hopefully unnecessarily step laterally, but this weekend, I'm not sure how many South Africans are aware, there was this horrendous incident in the DRC where many of our troops, you know, we lost three troops and a whole host of casualties. Again, born in my reading of it, of a complete lack of competence of supporting and sustaining those sorts of functions where we know they're in a conflict zone. And that incapacity at a state-planning level, I think, is redolent of what's happening elsewhere in South Africa. So we must not be disarmed by this incredible prosperity that we see in this part of the country. We must be cognizant and think on a more local level, in my opinion..Chris Steyn (11:01.538).If this is allowed or is not stopped in some way, if it just keeps escalating, what can we expect as ordinary citizens?.Andrew Charter (11:15.542).I think you expect an environment where you have almost a dual state system. There will be parts of your surrounds, whether Western Cape or elsewhere in the country, which are reasonably stable precincts and life goes on as normal and you go down the road and you procure your coffee and there's a school within the same precinct and the average level of private security escalates, but you live in these little precincts. And just beyond that, there are areas completely outside of state control..Again, I cite the example of Brazil and their favela environment, which stand completely adjacent to the sort of formal economy. You can be on the streets of Rio de Janeiro on the Ipanema beach or on the Copacabana and you go just four blocks back and it's a no-go zone for tourists or even the police. And in those environments is literally being fought a counterinsurgency-style warfare. You can still go to Rio de Janeiro and experience this extraordinary city in this wonderful country, but just beyond the veil is essentially a completely separate state in which it's a totally different architectures, totally different social understandings, and they live completely side by side. So it isn't that you result in an all out collapse of every dimension of life, but existing in parallel with you will be parts of a country that are completely outside the orbit of control. .And to reassert control and prosperity and to those environments is almost an impossible task because you actually have to engage in civil war-like militaristic combat and that becomes untenable even if there is the capacity to do it, it becomes politically untenable because you can't all of a sudden deploy two or three or four or five thousand troops on combat duty into a highly undeveloped favela-like environment which houses 10 or 20,000 people because you will result in ghastly massacre. And when you get to that point, it becomes just a fact of life. It just becomes a fact of life. And then there is this tenuous, almost constant negotiation between the formal economy and the informal criminal economy as to whose domain is where. And it becomes almost like this, not a negotiated settlement, but it becomes two separate state systems existing in parallel..Andrew Charter (13:39.02).And we don't want to arrive at that point because nowhere in the world that I'm aware that that point has been attained. Have you ever reversed it? It's completely impossible. No matter what you do with all the will in the world, the might of the United States military, if you like, that has gone in around the world and tried to address not exactly the same challenges, but challenges of this sort of nature, it doesn't work. So if we don't actively prepare for it now in the sort of the very South African, we're an incredibly innovative people..Andrew Charter (14:06.7).And preparing for this doesn't necessarily mean massive investment and a whole militarization of society, but how can we on a local level be more cognizant? And is it conceivable that the accumulation of private sector competencies at scale across the country on a decentralized basis can actually do something miraculous? Is it conceivable that that's possible? Because we don't have the resources to throw huge sums of money in it. We can't convert the citizenry into a fighting militia, it's just not practical. But what can we do in terms of cognizance and coordination that maybe we can just hold this thing at bay, even if just sufficiently long that the state does in some way recuperate its capacities in this regard. But I think to be apathetic about it and to be of the view that this sort of talk is purely pessimism and, you know, wash it away as negativity. I think is a suboptimal approach. And I think to be cognizant and actually plan for it and engage in dialogue in this regard is critically important. And it's not just a South African problem. We've seen this elsewhere in the world. We're seeing the sort of chaos all over the place. So it's not to be anti-South African in any way. But we've seen complicated things in our past. We know how to accommodate the collapse of state competency. How do we get together? How do we move forward?.Chris Steyn (15:36.058).Now, how would or could your Joint Fusion Centre contribute to fighting this?.Andrew Charter (15:43.246).So the concept that we are seeking to adopt here in Wellington, and I can't claim that I speak on behalf of the whole community, I'm a reasonably new resident in this part of the world, but the idea that we are seeking to espouse in the community is that we have an underlying set of capabilities that already exist here. There are security companies, there are community policing forums, there are paramedics, there are hospitals, there are the police, and God willing, all over South Africa I come across police who've got tremendous intent to make a difference..Andrew Charter (16:09.002).They often tarred with the same negative brush, but there's a lot of intent and desire to see a difference because it affects everyone's community. We've got our Landbouverenigings. We've got all the menagerie of things that exist everywhere. So the idea is not to seek to replace these functions, but how can we more effectively coordinate them? How can we fuse them in an intelligent way? And the idea behind the Fusion Centre is essentially a Command and Control Centre, but without the dimension of command because the underlying assets are not going to be controlled by what we hope to be a collaborative citizen body. We're not going to control these assets. We'd like to, by consensus and through collaboration of the willing, speak to all of these parties as we have been doing and seek to coordinate their day-to-day deployments and activities and their responses to disasters and criminal activities. So can we be more thoughtful? And I'll give you some examples of what transpires in our part of the world..We have everywhere in South Africa day to day crime and housebreakings and thefts of pumps and stealing of cables and all of these things. But what we can tell is that in high wind conditions like today, it often harbours criminal activities because your dogs can't hear things or smell things at night and you can't hear people entering your premises. So high wind conditions spike in crime. Full phase of the moon, more ambient light, spike in crime. If it's had a long period of rain and the criminals haven't been as comfortably moving around, spike in crime thereafter. And if you have these three conditions, you know, it's rained for a few weeks, the moon is high and it's windy, sure as damn it, there's going to be a problem. So in this regard, can we therefore engage with the security companies, engage with the police and say, how are we going to change the deployment of resources today in consideration of this? Who's off sick? What bakkie is available?How many people do we have on a shift? Can we move people from daytime patrols to nighttime patrols, et cetera, et So we're not acquiring more bakkies, we're not necessarily training more people, we're not supplanting existing competencies. Can we just think about these competencies a little bit better and apply a little bit of analytical intellect to how we deploy existing resources? So that's the proactive element. The reactive element is how do we plan for major disasters? If there is a kidnapping event, what do do?.Andrew Charter (18:31.502).We know that certain security companies focus mostly in the rural areas or some are in certain areas of our region. Who's going to close which bridge? Who's going to contact the state? Who's going to contact the appropriate persons at the fire services if there is an active arson on the hillside, et cetera? How do we do this? And how do we, if we do need existing additional capabilities to augment what we have, what do we acquire at a community level?.And one of the big discussions always is this new field of drones. If we are going to acquire assets that maybe the security companies don't possess, and we should go the route of drones for additional competencies, what do we acquire? How do we specify it? And try to take a more system engineering logic and a slight sort of militaristic logic, if you like, to just planning the deployment of resources. So the idea then is a control centre, permanently staffed, community funded, just coordinates existing resources on a day-to-day basis. And my view is that that can result in a material gain in efficiency, a really material gain in efficiency. .And the other dimension, and I know I'm really labouring the point here, the other dimension is I don't believe South Africans are necessarily astute consumers of security services. When you sign up to the company that provides you services, you don't know, as far as I'm aware, most people have no idea how many vehicles they have, when are they deployed, what's the standard of training, how are they managing responses, what are the response times? And if you have a community initiative like this, you can actually measure that. And when community companies come to the area, and there's always a change, one company's here and then they go and years later somebody else, that's a very dynamic environment. How do you then specify at a community level how these organisations should be behaving? Should they have four bakkies deployed today? Or three? How should they be patrolling? And if you become a little bit more of an astute consumer, I think you also can raise the game of what you expect of these organisations. So it can function as a quality control measure, as well as a means of just becoming more effective. And you can use the information and experiences of this on a local level to actually provide feedback to community. And if you can do this town by town, precinct by precinct, I think very all of us and each one will maybe function in slightly different way..Andrew Charter (20:55.022).At scale, it becomes very, very, very interesting. And in our area, you've got people on four or five or six different radio frequencies. Coordinating this in times of crisis is a complete nightmare. So these little elements just require a bit of thinking. And I think all of a sudden we have a serious force and capability multiplier..Chris Steyn (21:18.254).And by when do you hope to have this centre up and running?.Andrew Charter (21:22.424).Well, this is a very good question. So, you know, what we've done is in the last four to five months, six months, perhaps, one loses track of time, engaged in a tremendous degree of dialogue and discussion with our local Landbouvereeniging, which is a very, very material organisation in our area, being a largely rural area, the community policing forums, and they're all sorts of overlapping group of different farm watches and the like. We had some discussion with local corporates that have got a large presence here. So it's been a process of trying to engender broad support for this hypothesis. .Now the objective is to register a not-for-profit company which ultimately is recognised as a public benefit organisation with SARS so that we can, I know that takes some time, but we can accumulate contributions from the community and do so on the most tax-efficient basis to them. And then based on those contributions, actually establish the infrastructure and hopefully we can get a lot of things gifted to us by local persons. So it's not too expensive, but I'm hoping that by, you know, sometime between Easter and the onset of winter that we actually have this thing functioning, maybe a little bit ambitious because it takes time to achieve the consensus. And then people are concerned about additional contributions to another function. Everyone's under pressure. Everyone's got private security anyway. We tend to think in an island mentality and trying to get people to think about this on this level is difficult. But that's far we've received, I've certainly received a lot of support. So if we can achieve it by, you know, before the first Springbok test of this year, that would be a great outcome. That's the ambition..Chris Steyn (23:04.622).Thank you. That was Andrew Charter, counter-crime activist and also the Chairman and CEO of the Nanodyn Group speaking to BizNews. I'm Chris Steyn. Thank you, Andrew..Andrew Charter (23:16.504).Thank you very much..Read also:.DA demands GNU reset: Steenhuisen declares formal dispute over NHI and Expropriation BillHidden land expropriation risks that farmers can't ignore: Ian CoxExpropriation Act fallout: SA institutions sound alarm over threats to property rights and economy

The Cape at the precipice of descent into a “Narco State”

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