Listen here.John McDermott explores the unfolding Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, unpacking how transmission occurs, why the crisis is spreading, and what makes this strain particularly dangerous. He examines strained health systems, limited aid funding, and the challenge of vaccine development. The discussion situates the outbreak within broader regional conflict and mistrust, highlighting how geopolitics, poverty, and weak infrastructure complicate containment efforts while international partners race to respond..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Edited transcript of the interview.00:00:06:17 - 00:00:33:23 – Alec Hogg Well. For over a year now, the BizNews community members have been thoroughly enjoying the inputs from the economists, including the chief Africa correspondent, John McDermott, who joins us for the first time on BizNews TV on a very big global story. We are delighted to have the partnership and relationship that we have with The Economist, and it’s been remiss not to tap into John’s expertise.John McDermott, lovely having you here on Business TV. It’s a really big story globally. The whole Ebola story-it seems like in South Africa, though, it hasn’t actually registered much yet.00:00:33:23 - 00:00:46:11 – John McDermott I don’t think so. No, not yet. And thank you for having me on. It’s an honour. I mean, Ebola is one of those tricky stories to cover because there can be quite a lot of hysteria around it. It’s an awful virus that kind of kills about half of people, in fact. And invariably, especially in the United States…00:00:46:13 - 00:01:10:01 – John McDermottYou get a lot of alarm. You know, when there was that big outbreak that viewers and listeners may remember from about a decade ago in West Africa, you had American safari-goers cancelling their trips to Kenya, even though it was on the other side of the continent. So when I’m covering it, I have to be kind of aware that it’s very easy for people to get the wrong information and become unnecessarily worried.00:01:10:03 - 00:01:34:21 – John McDermottHaving said that, what’s happening centred around the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo is almost certainly the worst outbreak since then, and it is something that we should be worried about - at least as Africa watchers.00:01:35:02 - 00:01:52:14 – John McDermottI’ve been up to eastern Congo many times. I haven’t been up since the outbreak has been confirmed, but coincidentally I was in North Kivu, which is the province just south of Ituri Province, where the epicentre is. I was there about a month ago.00:01:52:16 - 00:02:17:20 – John McDermottI was just applying for a US visa because I want to go to the World Cup. They were checking whether I had been there within the past 21 days, and it was just a little over that. But even when I was there, mostly to cover the conflict between the government of Congo and this Rwandan-backed rebel group, M23…00:02:17:20 - 00:02:46:05 – John McDermottI got a sense of just how difficult it might be to try to combat an outbreak of Ebola in a place like eastern Congo, where there’s a constellation of militia operating, the state is very weak, and there is also a lot of mistrust of authority.00:02:46:05 - 00:03:17:19 – John McDermottIt’s kind of long, complex and contested history, going back at least to the 1990s and the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide of 1994. The way I try to explain what’s happening is that it’s a mixture of two different types of war.00:03:17:21 - 00:03:53:15 – John McDermottSo it’s partly a civil war because this group M23 - named after its founding date - is led by Congolese Tutsi, the same ethnic group as Paul Kagame and the Rwandan leadership, the group that was mostly the victim of the Rwandan genocide. But they are Congolese and they oppose the Congolese government.00:03:53:15 - 00:04:22:12 – John McDermottThey say it isn’t protecting minorities enough. Some of them, when I went to see them in their lair with machine guns, were very intent on telling me: “We’re coming for Kinshasa.” They intend to topple the government there.00:04:22:12 - 00:04:43:14 – John McDermottSo it’s at once an intra-Congolese fight, but also a proxy war, because M23 is backed by Rwanda, led by Paul Kagame.00:04:43:14 - 00:05:12:00 – John McDermottIt sees M23 as part of its strategy for creating a buffer zone in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Kigali is much closer to Goma than Goma is to Kinshasa. So geographically it is in that region, and there is a certain logic to Rwanda seeing it as part of its zone of interest.00:05:12:02 - 00:05:40:13 – John McDermottHowever, as we have often argued, that is no excuse for seizing somebody else’s territory and looting what is inside. It reflects state weakness in that part of Central Africa.00:05:40:15 - 00:06:00:16 – John McDermottCaught in the middle are ordinary Congolese themselves, who are remarkable. It is often patronising to talk about resilience, but people there have gone through a hell of a lot, and now they’ve got this Ebola outbreak on top.00:06:15:10 - 00:06:26:04 – John McDermottAnd again, for people who aren’t that familiar with Ebola, you’ve said it kills about half the people it infects. How does it infect you and where does it come from?00:06:26:06 - 00:07:00:03 – John McDermottSo it’s not like Covid, and therefore will not spread as quickly and easily as Covid. One of the grim flip sides of it being so deadly is that it isn’t as contagious. It infects through touching bodily fluids.00:07:00:03 - 00:07:28:13 – John McDermottOne of the ways it spreads exponentially is at funerals, where people, for cultural reasons, want to touch the body of the deceased. That is exactly what you should not do according to medical science.00:07:28:13 - 00:07:53:06 – John McDermottIt is a disease endemic to animals in Central Africa and typically spreads from fruit bats to humans. Over the past 50 years there have been 17 outbreaks.00:07:53:08 - 00:08:15:03 – John McDermottIn recent years the world has become better at handling it, because there are vaccines for the most common strain and community health workers understand better how to build trust and educate people.00:08:15:05 - 00:08:27:21 – John McDermottThe bad thing about this outbreak is that it is a strain that is not as common and there is no vaccine against it. It is happening when eastern Congo is fragile and aid money is limited.00:08:27:23 - 00:08:40:05 – Alec HoggThe aid money - there is quite a lot being poured in there internationally, not from the United States but from other parts of the world. Should we in South Africa…00:08:43:09 - 00:08:52:13 – Alec HoggShould we be worried about this? Should we also be supporting the fight against Ebola?00:08:52:15 - 00:09:31:13 – John McDermottI don’t think if you’re sitting in Hermanus or Cape Town or Durban or Johannesburg you ought to be particularly worried. It does not spread like Covid. There is a chance of imported cases, but authorities will know what to do.00:09:31:13 - 00:10:05:12 – John McDermottSouth Africa has given a little money to Africa CDC, which is trying to organise African governments. Cyril Ramaphosa has a role in the response, but South Africa is still a long way from eastern DRC.00:10:05:14 - 00:10:21:05 – John McDermottWhat is needed is scientists developing an experimental vaccine, Western countries funding aid, and Congolese authorities focusing more on health than fighting wars.00:10:21:07 - 00:10:50:11 – John McDermottScientists from Oxford University and the Serum Institute in India are trying to produce a vaccine for this strain. But it hasn’t even been trialled in animals yet.00:11:11:02 - 00:11:22:18 – John McDermottThree months is the most optimistic scenario. More likely is a year. In the meantime, it’s testing, quarantining, contact tracing, and hoping for the best.00:11:28:13 - 00:12:19:09 – John McDermottWe don’t really know how many have been infected. There are over a thousand suspected cases and about 250 suspected deaths, but that is probably an underestimate.00:12:19:10 - 00:12:42:10 – John McDermottBefore the haemorrhagic fever appears, it can look like malaria, which is common in eastern Congo. So people often don’t go to doctors until very late.00:12:42:12 - 00:13:08:20 – John McDermottIn 2014–16 there were 11,000 deaths. In 2018 there were over 2,000. The total could be somewhere between those figures, but it is still a guesstimate.00:13:21:01 - 00:13:50:00 – Alec HoggAnd John, how is the international community reacting to the work that you’re doing? Because you’ve been into these areas which are not really that well covered, certainly not in our part of the world. There may be some interest over there, but with something along these lines, it shows there is definitely still a warm heart in Europe for it.00:13:50:02 - 00:14:08:07 – Alec HoggThey are pouring in hundreds of millions of pounds or dollars to assist a pretty dysfunctional system that appears to be struggling to get on top of this Ebola virus.00:14:08:09 - 00:14:45:07 – John McDermottWell, you have had these aid cuts over the past couple of years, and the Trump–Musk dismantling of USAID has been the most high-profile example of that. The way it was done has certainly done damage on the ground. I’ve been to, for example, a village in rural Madagascar where a small wooden hut with a little American flag had been repaired by the US, where nurses would come and do malaria treatments.00:14:45:07 - 00:15:15:11 – John McDermottIt was watching women with their kids come and realise, “Oh my God, it’s closed.” Doctors there were saying more children will now die of malaria because this aid money isn’t around and has been dismantled so haphazardly. But it’s not only the US. The UK, which used to spend 0.7% of national income on development, is slashing most of that. Germany and France are also cutting back.00:15:15:16 - 00:15:45:06 – John McDermottIt reflects fiscal pressures in rich countries. It is partly Ukraine as well - much of that aid money has been diverted to Ukraine, including housing Ukrainian refugees in Europe. There is also a sense that some aid money was wasted. If you look at spreadsheets published by DoGE and Musk, you see projects that raise questions about impact.00:15:45:08 - 00:16:11:01 – John McDermottBut I do think one area of aid that was effective was public health and humanitarian work. By any cost–benefit analysis, millions of lives have been saved through vaccination schemes. The surge of aid after the Ebola outbreak shows continued Western interest in limiting outbreaks to Africa.00:16:51:01 - 00:16:58:12 – Alec HoggAnd is that just enlightened self-interest? They’re worried it might come to their countries?00:16:58:14 - 00:17:24:08 – John McDermottYes, that is part of it. You’ve seen the US close its borders to anyone who has been in DRC or neighbouring countries recently. Canada has done the same. That is not necessarily what the WHO advises, and we saw during Covid how such bans can be self-defeating.00:17:24:10 - 00:17:53:05 – John McDermottBut yes, it is partly containment. However, Western aid also reflects a worldview shaped by Christian values and liberal internationalism. You can still see traces of that in Ebola response efforts.00:17:53:06 - 00:18:15:11 – John McDermottIt is not massively in Britain’s direct self-interest. It is also about domestic political audiences - signalling to voters that governments still care about the rest of the world.00:18:15:12 - 00:18:44:19 – Alec HoggWhen you join the dots, given what you have seen on the continent, has Trump’s return had a negative impact on how Africans view the United States, given the aid cuts?00:18:44:21 - 00:19:10:11 – John McDermottIt depends what you mean by Africa and by people. Ordinary people overwhelmingly do not notice. Even in townships like Khayelitsha near Cape Town, people are often unaware that US funding underpins services like HIV treatment.00:19:10:11 - 00:19:34:08 – John McDermottWhen China does public diplomacy and aid, even at lower levels, it makes sure people know it is coming from China. That is not always the case with Western aid.00:19:34:08 - 00:20:08:12 – John McDermottAt elite level, perceptions vary. For countries with something to offer the US, Trump-style transactionalism can be positive. It is preferred over lectures about human rights and elections.00:20:08:14 - 00:20:34:18 – John McDermottThe Democratic Republic of Congo is a key example. The US sees it as central to its critical minerals strategy and has taken a more transactional approach, including deals involving copper and cobalt assets.[00:20:34:18 - 00:21:14:16] – John McDermottTrump and President Félix Tshisekedi have developed a kind of unexpected relationship. But smaller or poorer countries are scrambling to offer what they can - minerals, or even deportation agreements.00:21:14:16 - 00:21:44:05 – John McDermottIt is less a scramble for Africa and more a scramble for Trump. Countries like Mozambique or others with fewer resources have less leverage in this dynamic.00:21:44:06 - 00:22:08:17 – John McDermottSo at elite level, if you have something to transact, it can work in your favour. If you don’t, you feel the imbalance much more sharply.00:23:13:08 - 00:23:40:16 – Alec HoggJohn, it must be hard from what you are seeing not to become cynical about what is going on in the world. How do you keep balance?00:23:40:16 - 00:24:09:01 – John McDermottThere were two infamous Economist covers on Africa. One at the turn of the century called “The Hopeless Continent”, and another about a decade later titled “Africa Rising”. Neither simplistic projection was right.00:24:09:03 - 00:24:39:16 – John McDermottIt is better to be an Afro-realist than an Afro-pessimist or Afro-optimist. That means looking at data, not treating African countries as one uniform block, and recognising their different histories and political economies.00:24:39:18 - 00:25:06:12 – John McDermottAfrican countries are normal countries with their own incentives, coalitions and constraints, just like the UK, US or France. If you treat them with that respect, you get a more accurate picture.00:25:06:12 - 00:25:31:03 – John McDermottThat picture can be negative, because there is poverty and underdevelopment, but also progress in some places, fast-growing cities, and impressive firms.00:25:31:03 - 00:25:53:15 – John McDermottOne positive outcome of reduced international engagement is that African governments and businesses may invest more of their own capital into infrastructure and development rather than storing it offshore.00:25:53:15 - 00:26:08:18 – John McDermottWe are already seeing signs of that happening in some places. Over the next few years, I will be watching whether a more “Africa-first” mindset emerges on the continent itself.00:26:08:20 - 00:26:16:19 – Alec HoggFascinating. Thank you. John McDermott is the chief Africa correspondent at The Economist. I’m Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.