In this edition of the Electoral Road Show with Chris Steyn and analyst Supremo Wayne Sussman, he unpacks the polling results of the first two of six metros surveyed in the highly scientific eNCA MarkData 2026 election poll. In Ekurhuleni, the DA emerged first with 31.2% of the vote, the only party to breach that 30% mark. Second was the ANC with 29.4%. A distant third was MKP at 11.5%. The EFF came in fourth place at 9.2%. In Nelson Mandela Bay, the DA is in the lead with 37.7% of the vote just ahead of the ANC on 37.4%. Coming in third is the EFF at 8%. “The job for the DA as the leading party is how can they stretch that lead in the coming weeks. The job for the ANC is to re-emerge, try to re-emerge as the largest party in Ekurhuleni. And the other parties will be looking at these polls and saying, look, this is a golden opportunity. The ANC is not doing well. What can they extract from the ANC? There's a lot to play for, for each and every single one of the major parties over the next few weeks.” Sussman says questions about service delivery and other key issues produced “very worrying responses for those in government, for those leading. The electorate is not satisfied with the state of local government, with the way our cities are being run.” In next week’s show, the polling results for Johannesburg and Cape Town will be unpacked..Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.4)Welcome to the Electoral Road Show with me, Chris Steyn and analyst Supremo Wayne Sussman. Welcome back, Wayne.Wayne (00:11.683)Chris, it's great to be speaking to you again and I look forward to unpacking the start of the ENCA Mark Data polling for the 2026 local government elections.Chris Steyn (00:22.968)Firstly, please tell us how the polling was conducted.Wayne (00:27.811)Thank you. Six metropolitan areas were focused on for this poll. Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane. And we did a combination of personal interviews and telephonic interviews to maximize the response rate.Telephone interviews were typically used in higher income gated communities and areas which were unsafe or where the enumerators were not welcomed into those areas. And this is the key part. The people polled had to be registered voters who are 18, who are obviously 18 years and older, residing in South Africa and who intended to vote in the selection.And what was utilised by Mark Data is something called a multi-stage random probability sample design. A probability sample means that every person in the target population has an equal chance to be selected in this poll. And multi-stage refers to three stages of selection to ensure random non-biased selection, namely the numerator area, the household within that target area, and the respondent within the particular household. So the sampling frame was either face-to-face or telephonic. And what was used here when it comes to face-to-face is the 2022 STATS-SA census data and GeoTerra Image National Building Census, i.e. where we are able to zoom in on areas to see where people are residing and essentially, this considers the number of households, the number of people, numbers per population group, gender, age, neighbourhood, lifestyle, et cetera. And then secondly - and I promise you we're going to get into that polling data soon, telephonic - calling. A database of more than 14 million contact numbers from the Credit Bureau is linked to a sampling frame already referred to in the sampling basis. And here…Wayne (02:49.218)…higher income respondents who are randomly selected from the linked telephone database. So it's also important to note that the sample design was disproportionate to ensure that smaller groups and areas were sufficiently represented. To correct these proportions, the results are weighted back to the correct population proportions as per the StatsSA and media estimates. So finally, in this part of the interview, how many people were polled in each of the metropolitan areas. We did, we aimed for a minimum of 1,000 people each in the six metropolitan areas. And the good news Chris is that besides Nelson Mandela Bay, which as people will know in BizNews, has far less residents in those other five metropolitan areas, we exceeded this in every single other metropolitan area. So in Nelson Mandela Bay it was 994 and today I'll be speaking about Ekurhuleni. That was 1019. The interview timeline was between 10 August and 14 September 2026 and at least 20% back checks were conducted in the field to ensure correct completion of the questionnaire. Finally, the margin of error at a 95% confidence level for Nelson Mandela Bay. And again, there were 994 people. That's 3.11% is the margin of error. And in Ekurhuleni, which is 1,019, the margin of error is 3.07%. So I think it's very important to get the methodology out of the way. A lot of people question the methodology. So thank you for letting me lay it out.Chris Steyn (04:44.023)Thank you, Wayne. May we start with Ekurhuleni, please.Wayne (04:49.036)Thank you. And it's, I think, very important to set the scene for Ekurhulenii. And you know, in all our interviews, I'm a big advocate for Ekurhuleni because people forget that this is the fourth most populous metropolitan area in South Africa. This is the second most populous metropolitan area in Gauteng. More people reside in the East Rand than they do in our beautiful capital city.And I think people need to contextualise this, that this is the metropolitan area which is historically where the ANC was strongest in Gauteng. I remember in 2019, as we waited for those final results to come in from Ekurhuleni, it was the Ekurhuleni metropolitan area which pushed the ANC over the 50% mark. So Chris, Ekurhulenii has been critical for the ANC.However, when we look at the 2024 elections, this was the metropolitan area beyond KwaZulu-Natal, where uMkhonto we Sizwe hurt the ANC the most, getting 14% of the vote. This is an area where the ANC declined dramatically in 2024. This is the area where Premier Panyaza Lesufi hails from. This is the area where Nkuleleko Dunga, the leader of the EFF in Gauteng, hails from. This is the area Ashor Sarupen, the DA, Federal Council Chair, hails from. This is also the area where we have high profile celebrity candidates like Xolani Khumalo from Action SA and Themba "Skeem GP" Nzimande Tembe Nzimandi from Africa Mayibuye Movement. So there's a lot to play for in Ekurhuleni.And I'm now going to break down those results after that long introduction. In our poll, and again, a poll is a snapshot. We're not saying that these results will happen. This is not a prediction. But when we did the survey, the Democratic Alliance emerged first here, Chris, and I'm going to say these numbers slowly, with 31.2 % of the vote. They were the only party in the survey to breach that 30% mark. OK, so they came in first with 31.2%. Second of all, was the ANC with 29.4%Wayne (07:16.738)And then a distant third was uMkhonto we Sizwe slightly down from that high water mark in 2024 on 11.5% were uMkhonto we Sizwe. The EFF in fourth place on 9.2%. And then it gets interesting. Action SA, 6.1%. The Freedom Front Plus with a gallant 5.2% of the vote. The IFP, surprisingly, with 2.8% of the vote. And then the final party, the Patriotic Alliance, 2.5 % of the vote. So I know there's a lot of numbers, and let me say it slowly again. DA 31.2, ANC 29.4, uMkhonto we Sizwe 11.5, EFF 9.2, ActionSA 6.1, Freedom Front Plus 5.2. Then we had the IFP on 2.8 and the PA on 2.5. This is a very, very fragmented landscape, and I'm happy to break down these numbers by other categories, by age, by race, et cetera. But I just want you to throw those numbers at you in the audience, and I'm happy to take more questions on those numbers.Chris Steyn (08:31.234)Were you surprised by the survey result, Wayne?Wayne (08:36.322)That's a great question. When I receive any kind of data, I like to be calm and reflect deeply. What was interesting with these results was that there was also a breakdown by population group and by age. So I can give you an example, to answer that question. When it comes to the age group of 18 to 24, the youngest age group, I would have expected the EFF to be the most popular party in Ekurhuleni. And indeed, they were. In Ekurhuleni, 23.3% of the respondents in that 18 to 24 bracket said they were going to vote for the EFF. So this does not surprise me. And it's interesting to see where the DA was the most popular. So Chris, just to take two steps back, I expected the DA to be first. I expected the ANC to be second. I thought uMkhonto we Sizwe would be slightly higher. I thought the EFF would be slightly higher. But again, we are expecting a relatively low turnout election. I think DA supporters are going to be motivated in this election. The challenge for the DA, they might be the leading party in the poll, but how do they form a stable coalition?Chris Steyn (10:02.798)Over to Nelson Mandela Bay, please, Wayne.Wayne (10:06.882)Sure. So, Nelson Mandela Bay, and again, I think it's important to set the scene. In 2021, I think it was 2,567 votes. Remember, you get two ballots in a local government election. So, when we take all the votes in Nelson Mandela Bay, remember, its two ballots. Only 2,500, I think it was 2,567 votes that separated the DA from the ANC. Chris, this is the closest metropolitan race. It was the closest metropolitan race in the country in 2021. This is an area where both the DA and the ANC won 48 seats, totally neck and neck. This is also an area where the EFF did very well in 2024, where they grew from 7.5% of the vote, just over seven and half percent of the vote, to 11 percent. And it's also the metropolitan area in the country where the PA. performed the best, i.e. they got over six and I think six and a half percent. So fertile ground for the .A. And I also want to say there's a very high profile ward race in Nelson Mandela Bay. Renaldo Gouws. the former DA MP and right wing podcaster running for the Freedom Front versus the longtime voice waking up residents of Gqeberha, Daron Mann from Algo FM who's running for the DA. So a lot to play for Nelson Mandela Bay. So, in our sixth most populous metropolitan area, it's the Democratic Alliance in the lead with 37.7 percent of the vote just ahead of the ANC on 37.4 percent. This, like in 2021, remains a neck-and-neck race. When we see who's coming in third, it's the EFF on 8%, down on that higher 11% mark in 2024. Coming in in fourth place was the PA at 4% of the vote, also slightly down from last time. And then coming in in fifth place, remember Athol Trollop, the former mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay,Wayne (12:32.534)he's running the campaign in the Eastern Cape, they'll be satisfied with their 3.4% of the vote. And then uMkhonto weSizwe who really struggled here in 2024 coming in sixth at 3.2%. I want to mention the fact the party which came in seventh was the Freedom Front Plus on 2.3%. I think they'd be a bit disappointed in that. And then the GOOD party with about 1.3% of the vote. So I want to mention those numbers again. DA at number one, 37.7%. ANC second, 37.4%. EFF third, with 8%. And then in fourth place was the PA with 4%. Chris, more fascinating numbers. And I'm happy to break it down for you. But I'm also willing to take questions.Chris Steyn (13:25.922)I like to know how the youth responded to the survey iWayne (13:30.593)Yeah, so maybe let's flash this out with Nelson Mandela Bay. So again, the majority of respondents, well, the highest number of responses was for the EFF in that 18 to 24 bracket, getting just under 26% to the vote. And here is what was interesting is that the party which came second was the ANC with 18.4%. And then the PA came in third with 13.6 and ActionSA fourth with 13.5 percent. And let's just say this and I'll do this briefly. When we look at the 25 to 34 age group, this is an age group where the DA came first in Ekurhuleni. Well, also in this age group, the DA came first in Nelson-Mandela Bay with 31.7 percent of respondents and the ANC second with 28.5.Then I'm going to go quickly to 35 to 44 year olds in Nelson Mandela Bay. Totally neck and neck. The ANC first with 35.7, the DA second with 34.7. We then go to 45. These numbers are fascinating because it just shows how tight things are. 45 to 54, the DA 39.8, the ANC 39.4. And then finally, the oldder voters. Now we must remember, the ANC have traditionally been highly dependent amongst older voters across South Africa. In Nelson Mandela Bay, and I think this is a good sign for the DA, the DA 45.9%, the ANC 44.8%. So bar for the EFF in that 18 to 24 bracket, Chris, the DA winning the majority of the brackets except 35 to 44. But essentially the DA and ANC are well out in front, bar for the 18 to 24 year olds.Chris Steyn (15:27.704)So close in both Nelson Mandela Bay and Ekurhuleni. So close.Wayne (15:35.619)Extremely close and there's a lot to play for in these last few weeks. I want to go back to Ekurhuleni and it is, we are about three and a half ways out before the election. We know that Jacob Zuma is currently hospitalised. So I'm saying this in the context of an opinion poll. The opinion poll took place at a time when Jacob Zuma was seen in active campaign mode. Jacob Zuma is currently in hospital. We wish him well. What would happen if Jacob Zuma wouldn't be seen on the campaign trail between now and the election? What would happen if something worse had to happen? And there would be a death, a death of him or another major candidate. A lot can happen in the next three and a half weeks. But right now, as a snapshot of the poll suggests, the Democratic Alliance is leading with a very low percentage in Ekurhuleni and is also leading in Nelson Mandela Bay. The job for the DA as the leading party is how can they stretch that lead in the coming weeks? The job for the ANC is to re-emerge, try to re-emerge as the largest party in Ekurhuleni. And the other parties will be looking at these polls and saying, look, this is a golden opportunity. The ANC is not doing well. What can they extract from the ANC? There's a lot to play for, for each and every single one of the major parties over the next few weeks.Chris Steyn (17:13.58)Which metros will we be able to cover in the next show?Wayne (17:18.578)Johannesburg and Cape Town. So we're not messing around. We'll be able to do this hopefully on Sunday next week. It'll be an absolutely compelling conversation. I haven't seen that data. I'll be getting that data soon and preparing it. And Chris, I just want to mention some other questions which might be of interest to the listeners and the viewers. We polled a whole host of things in this opinion poll, including attitudes towards things like service delivery, things about the jobs and the economy. So let me give you an example of one. And that is that we know that Nelson Mandela Bay has had major water challenges. So we polled the question, do you believe the mayor and the municipality can sort out the water challenges in Nelson Mandela Bay? And of the respondents, 26% said, yes, I'm sure they can. And a resounding 58.8% said, I have no confidence in them to manage this. We know that the ANC currently has the mayoral chain in Nelson Mandela Bay. And when almost three out of five of every vote is saying they have no confidence for them to sort out a major water challenge, that would be a worrying sign for the ANC. There was one other thing, Chris, which I just wanted to focus on quickly. We know that obviously in Nelson Mandela Bay, it's key for motor vehicle production, in our manufacturing, key manufacturing sector in South Africa. We polled the question, the mayor and the municipality are trying to keep companies and jobs from leaving the city. Do you think they are doing the best they can and I support them? Do you? Then we asked, they need to make a far greater effort. What they're doing is not enough. A resounding 70% of respondents said they need to make a far greater effort. What they're doing is not enough. These are very worrying responses for the governing coalition. The challenge is, can those in parties in opposition, like the DA, like parties like ActionSA, which are not currently represented in Nelson Mandela Bay,...Wayne (19:42.592)…take advantage of this negative public sentiment. And by the way, we polled specific questions like this in Ekurhuleni on safety. And this was done before the horrendous gender-based violence, which we've been seeing play out on the streets in Ekurhuleni. We also polled things like anti-foreign worker sentiment. Again, very worrying responses for those in government, for those leading, the electorate is not satisfied with the state of local government, with the way our cities are being run.Chris Steyn (20:18.754)Thank you. That was Wayne Sussman, elections analyst on The Electoral Roadshow with me, Chris Steyn. Thank you, Wayne.Wayne (20:29.602)Thank you..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.