Dr Edward Mienie - Trump’s war plans, the Epstein Files, and the ANC’s Motsepe Card…

As the world grows more uncertain, clarity matters more than ever. BNC#8 brings together some of the smartest and most experienced minds to help you cut through the noise and navigate the turbulence with greater confidence. Tickets are selling out fast, with only 40 left. Don’t waste time, book your place at BNC#8 by clicking here or on the image below..In his latest interview with Chris Steyn, former South African diplomat to both the NP and ANC governments, Dr Eddie Mienie, now the Executive Director of Strategic & Security Studies at the University of North Georgia (UNG) in Atlanta, gives his analysis on the war in the Middle East; US President Donald Trump’s long-term strategy and popularity challenges; the effect of the Epstein Files; South Africa’s relations with the US and Israel; the personal sanctions risk of ANC leader’s unwavering loyalty to Iran; and whether a Patrice Motsepe Presidency can save the party. As for South Africa's stance, he warns: "I cannot see any positive outcome from hanging on to an Iranian regime that is now quite frankly, on their knees.” On the possibility of sanctions, he says: “... this is always an option and we can expect that to be considered if the belligerence remains and personal sanctions, even freezing of financial assets that are abroad, is a possibility as well.” Meanwhile, he predicts: “... the bombing campaign (on Iran) is absolutely going to step up until there's complete capitulation…”.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.398)South Africa remains unwavering in its support for its old ally, Iran, as that country is now embroiled in wars with several other countries following an attack on it by the United States and Israel. I speak to Dr. Eddie Mienie, a former diplomat of both the African National Congress and the National Party governments. And of course, he is now with the University of North Georgia in Atlanta. Welcome, Dr. Mienie.Eddie Mienie (00:29.132)Thank you very much, Chris. It's nice being with you again and with your audience as well.Chris Steyn (00:34.976)If there's one person who can tell us what the South Africans are thinking, its you.Eddie Mienie (00:41.569)Well, you know, from, I can speak from my perspective here in terms of this recent attack on Iran by the United States. This didn't happen overnight, Chris. This is something that has been building up over a period of 50 years.The Iranian regime has been, so to say, at the throats of the United States here for all those years, all those decades. We have lost hundreds of American citizens, soldiers, and civilians at the hands of acts of terror committed by the number one state sponsor of terrorism, namely the Iranian regime. And at the hands of Hezbollah,Hamas, the Houthis now in Yemen, and elsewhere. So these proxies of the Iranian regime have caused us a lot of damage, a lot of death. We won't forget the attack on Israel on October the 7th.And so this is in response to 50 years of vicious activity towards the United States. Death to America, Death to Israel is the chant in the streets. And so this is in reaction to that. There's no question that this is the number one state sponsor of terrorism and it needs to be dealt with. We've had presidents, United States presidents in the past over decades that could have and should have taken action, but didn't for whatever reason, wanted to negotiate.And the Iranian regime, they were busy building up the stockpiles of short and medium and even long range ballistic missiles. They were developing hordes and hordes of these unmanned aerial attack vehicles….Eddie Mienie (03:04.014)… to keep other nations at bay while they slowly play for time to develop nuclear warheads. I know that during the negotiations between the United States delegation and the Iranian regime during the latter part of the negotiations and where it actually collapsed is when the Iranian representative in a nonchalant way said that they are capable of developing, they have enough uranium to develop 11 nuclear warheads. Now, I mean, that was done in a very matter of fact way and they wanted to negotiate from that position and that was just totally unacceptable. So this campaign has really been, we only in...I think it's been since it was launched, 103 hours has expired since the first attacks by the United States and Israel Air Force. So there are no boots on the ground. This is an aerial invasion to take out these ballistic missile sites where they're launched from. Together with Israel, the command, control and communications of the Iranian regime has been taken down just about. Of course, there are groups that have dispersed within the country and that would still conduct ballistic missile firings, but this is dwindling. And now that both air forces have complete control over the airspace over Iran, this means that they can amp up the attacks by using conventional, not stealth, only stealth aircraft, but also conventional non-stealth aircraft. So the bombing campaign is absolutely going to step up until there's complete capitulation. So, you know, that's where we are. It's early days, actually. And of course, you know, where...Eddie Mienie (05:28.812)I think the Iranians completely miscalculated by attacking their neighbours. My theory is thinking that they could rally up these neighbours to be anti what's happening with these assaults, these air assaults by America and by Israel. But the exact opposite has happened. And such a big miscalculation. Quite frankly, Chris, it's a matter of time and...There will be complete capitulation there.Chris Steyn (05:59.746)Now Dr. Mienie, what do you make of South Africa's continued support for Iran?Eddie Mienie (06:06.51)Well, I honestly quite, I cannot understand that. It doesn't make sense for me. It's clear what that regime was doing and has been doing, as I had mentioned earlier, over the past 40 years, as a state sponsor of terrorism. And I must be frank with you, knowing, I think in our last conversation, I alluded to these ISIS training camps in South Africa. A former cabinet member, minister, South African minister of foreign affairs visited Iran. So I know there's, I would assume, financial links between the Iranian regime and the ANC. so it's a matter of convenience.But I think the writing's on the wall. It is clear that this regime is now being rejected by their neighbours. You know, the German chancellor just visited yesterday, the White House. France has committed to supporting US efforts and Israeli efforts. The UK initially was ambivalent about it all. They have now gone ahead and given permission for us to use their air bases. So there's a realisation that Iran, the Iranian regime, could strike just about anywhere in Europe with a ballistic missile program that they have been building. And since we bombed them in June of last year with those bunker bombs to get rid of those nuclear facilities, they stepped up their production of ballistic missiles at an incredible pace. So yes, they had an unbelievable arsenal of which 50%, I understand from what I see in open source stuff, 50% has been removed. So again, that's in four days. And the current administration here has committed to going as long as possible, weeks for that matter…Eddie Mienie (08:32.633)…to continue with the bombing campaign, really to bomb them into submission. You know that 40 plus leaders were taken out within the first 24 hours. The second sort of wave of leaders to replace those initial leaders in Iran have also been taken out. So, you know, there's absolute resolve to push this to an end which satisfies the civilized world.Chris Steyn (09:07.775)Dr. Mienie, what has this invasion done for President Trump's popularity in America? Are sections turning against him or is his popularity stable?Eddie Mienie (09:22.543)Yeah, no, that is a bit of a hurdle whenever there is talk of war or actions of war and, you know, people get flashbacks of what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. You know, is this going to be boots on the ground? Is this going to be a drawn-out war situation? Well, he's been very clear that that is definitely not the path that he's going to be following. When they've accomplished their objectives, which is to remove these ballistic missiles and to ensure that a democracy, that the Iranian people can choose their leader, a leader of their choosing, and they can get away from this autocratic government, then that's time to move. But you and I and your viewers, don't have access to all the information, of course, that the decision makers have. And so we respond to headline news. And when we do that, we've already kind of lost because we don't have all the data points. So we can just speculate. According to recent surveys, President Trump has lost a bit of support within the independent voters, some of the Republican, a lot of the Democrats, because well, they're playing politics, right? So I think that the administration went into this knowing full well that this could happen. That's why I think there's an expectation that this will definitely not drag on. We have midterm elections coming up later this year. So the Republican party is fully aware of that, fully aware. But yes, the thing, this...assault had to take place when it took place. Iran was at an inflection point where they could pivot from conventional warhead to a nuclear warhead and that would have changed the dynamics completely. And so, as I say, the civilized world cannot afford that to happen.Eddie Mienie (11:44.981)And so this attack just had to happen. So yes, his popularity has taken a bit of a knock, but that was to be expected. And there's an anticipation that once there's success and all the military is back home here, that the tide would change again.Chris Steyn (12:09.365)Talking about his popularity, has it also taken a hit over what is contained or allegedly contained in the Epstein Files?Eddie Mienie (12:20.441)Well, there's a lot of talk about that. We've seen important people in high places fall as a result of their connection to the Epstein issue. It's interesting that in the previous administration nothing was done about the Epstein files, there was no release. It's also interesting to note that it's on record that President Trump had barred Epstein from Mar-a-Lago many, many, many years ago and so there's bad blood there. You would think that if there's any negative matters involving President Trump that this would have come out a long time ago through other avenues or from Mr. Epstein himself, but that wasn't obvious. So that didn't happen. So there's a lot of talk about that, but I haven't seen anything on this side having a real impact on him.Chris Steyn (13:32.479)I mean, you would know or you'd likely know. Was Epstein running an intelligence entrapment operation?Eddie Mienie (13:44.176)There's a lot of speculation. Israeli intelligence agencies have been, their names have been thrown around. MI6, CIA, there's speculation that he was an asset for someone for whatever reason. Normally, you know, we can just make a...deduction that all his premises were surveilled by him and by others, I guess. And whatever was captured was captured. And, you know, this is one of the one of the motives for people to spy, as it were, is coercion with negative information that you don't want other people to know about. So there's strong speculation that he was an intelligence asset for someone. But I haven't seen anything conclusive. I'm not aware of that. We can just speculate at this stage.Chris Steyn (14:54.049)Looking at the available information, I often wonder who was the brain? Him or Ms. Maxwell?Eddie Mienie (15:07.311)The brain… that's interesting because Maxwell's dad, of course, was an asset, an intelligence asset, and he was an interesting figure. So, again, we can just speculate about that. I know that the Department of Justice was not willing to negotiate a deal with her. So, you know, I think there's much more to…Eddie Mienie (15:36.665)…to come out of this whole saga involving her. So we'll just have to wait for the reports to come out in that regard. Yeah, yeah.Chris Steyn (15:47.937)So and what did you make of Congress, or what do you make of Congressman Thomas Massie’s mission?Eddie Mienie (15:55.159)Yes, he is an outlier and I'm not sure that he would be re-elected. So, I just see it as an outlier and the party is not able to pull him in so that they can work together on certain issues, in particular this one. So...You know, it's an inconvenience, but it's not insurmountable. His talk of breaking ranks, as it were, is not causing much of a fissure line.Chris Steyn (16:44.193)Just to go back to Trump's popularity or who is really in charge, America or Israel, some people say that he was strong-armed by Israel into attacking Iran. What would you say?Eddie Mienie (17:01.057)Again, those are headlines and when we react to those, we've already lost the discussion. My understanding, and I base that on press briefings coming directly from the Secretary of War and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Chairman, this was not the case that Israel strong-armed the United States. I don't think there's anyone, I don't think there's any leader that can strong-arm President Trump. He is his own person, he makes up his own mind, of course with his advisors, so that's highly, highly unlikely that he was pressured into this situation. I think the more real situation is the fact that the arsenal, the ballistic arsenal of the Iranian regime was building to such a level that they could use that to threaten any potential attack against them while they're buying time to come up with their nuclear warheads. That's the real situation. And so those are to be taken out sooner rather than later. Chris Steyn (18:09.993)Is there any chance that they could secretly have actually completed a nuclear warhead?Eddie Mienie (18:23.823)You mean that they actually have one that we don't know about? I strongly disagree that they would have one. You know, the Israeli intelligence services are really good in that, particularly in that part of the world. You have to remember that the Iranian people who have been suppressed for 50 years, a lot of the information coming out of Iran…Eddie Mienie (18:53.101)…is being volunteered by Iranians who are tired of living that way under that regime. And I'm pretty sure that that would have leaked a long time ago, the fact that they actually have a nuclear head. Yeah.Chris Steyn (19:06.593)Let's go to the midterms. If there is a Blue Wave, could that block Trump's agendas?Eddie Mienie (19:16.143)Well, that's assuming there is a blue wave. I don't think there will be a Blue Wave. You know, they could frustrate certain actions. They love this word impeachment But you know President Trump has been pulled through the wringer you know yourself over the years and nothing stuck and he survived all of that.So this is political posturing. And I think if they do do that, let's assume that there is a Blue Wave. I think they will pay a price during the general elections two years after the midterm elections and that the Republicans would come in strong again.Chris Steyn (20:04.788)What for South Africa if Iran fell, what would be the consequences?Eddie Mienie (20:11.319)Yeah, I think it behooves the South African government to reassess, you know, their relationship with the United States. I know there's a lot of animosity there. The United States ambassador was approved recently by the Senate. He was confirmed, confirmed, and he's now there in Pretoria. And from what I've just briefly seen,Eddie Mienie (20:38.767)…he's there for constructive talks and looks forward to building a strong relationship with South Africa. So there's an opportunity for South Africa to grab this opportunity and to develop it in the interests of South Africa, in the interest of all South Africans. I cannot see any positive outcome from hanging on to a Iranian regime that is now quite frankly, on their knees. There's nothing positive that comes out of that. And of course, building a strong relationship with the United States, there will be certain, let's call it demands. I don't think either country can afford terror camps to be within the borders of South Africa, so that would have to go.The fact that we're even talking about this, Chris, is just beyond me, that we would have camps like that. so, yeah, I say there's an opportunity for the South African government to move forward on a positive note with the US administration, and everyone will benefit from that.Chris Steyn (21:57.331)If not, our likely personal sanctions on certain leaders here.Eddie Mienie (22:03.023)Yeah, of course, this is always an option and we can expect that to be considered if the belligerence remains and personal sanctions, even freezing of financial assets that are abroad is a possibility as well. But I hope it doesn't go down that pathway, that reason. there'll be reasonable sort of behavior and positive interaction.Chris Steyn (22:40.67)Lastly, what is your view of this talk of President Cyril Motsepe’s brother-in-law, Patrice Motsepe, possibly being in the running for the next president of the party?Eddie Mienie (22:56.879)Chris, I want to maybe step back and just reflect on the support that the ANC is enjoying as a party. It has dwindled over the years since 1994. I don't know if much will change having Motsepei as a potential leader of the ANC. I don't know how they untangle themselves, the leadership, from the enormous amount of corruption that has taken place that is now absolutely endemic. It's within the fiber of the ANC. And I can't see that turning around overnight. It doesn't matter who leads the party. And that, of course, leads to the next question. Well, who would take over? Which party would take over in South Africa? Yes, Steenhuisen is no longer the leader of the Democratic Alliance. I'm not sure who has taken over from him, Chris, at this point. Which is also indicative that there's, you know, there's not a groundswell person that could take over that would be obvious who would be leading the Democratic Alliance. So I think it may be time for a bigger change than just having an individual take over the leadership of the ANC.Chris Steyn (24:22.944)Have you been keeping an eye on the inquiries into police and political capture, the Madlanga Commission and Parliament's Ad Hoc Committee?Eddie Mienie (24:34.927)Yeah, I have not been tracking with that of late, Chris. So I just want to say that way back in 2013, Crime Intelligence and the misuse of police intelligence has come a long way. You know, are we talking about what's this 13 years ago that, through the interviews that I conducted, this was very evident and it's just become worse over the past 13 years. Again, it's all endemic, right? Using the tools, the powerful tools of intelligence for party political purposes, it doesn't bode well at all. And we have laws and regulations here in the United States where we avoid that and there are sanctions when a government uses their intelligence community for party political purposes. You know, changes need to come. And I'm not sure what the answer is, how that's going to manifest itself. It's so South Africa is so complex, actually. And the change needs to come.Chris Steyn (25:57.696)I think we'll get an indication of that later this year, towards the end of the year when we have a Local Government Elections.Eddie Mienie (26:05.985)Okay, yes. Then, again, I see the Cape, the Cape province. I'm not sure where the drive for autonomy is at this stage. You know, that'll be a shame if that actually does happen because South Africa is so beautiful. And, you know, we've got…Eddie Mienie (26:32.269)…the people living all over and I think everyone should benefit from a change for the positives, not just one area, you know.Chris Steyn (26:41.28)Well, you can come and have a look for yourself when you are in South Africa later this year. We'll definitely see you then. That was Dr. Eddie Mieniei, a former South African diplomat for both the National Party and the ANC government, speaking to BizNews from Atlanta, Georgia, I'm Chris Steyn. Thank you, Doctor.Eddie Mienie (26:59.107)Thank you very much. Thank you very much, Chris. All the best..

Dr Edward Mienie - Trump’s war plans, the Epstein Files, and the ANC’s Motsepe Card…

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