Dr Iraj Abedian: Israel v Iran’s Regime - A half century in the making, this is a fight to the death

Iranian-born and bred polymath Dr Iraj Abedian shares unique insights into the existential battle in the Middle East - and South Africa’s place in it. The entrepreneur, academic and leading economist spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter .The recent Israeli military strike on Iran marks a pivotal escalation in one of the world’s most complex geopolitical rivalries. For those observing from the outside, the confrontation might appear as a nation-on-nation conflict. But, as economist Dr Iraj Abedian tells broadcaster Alec Hogg in a compelling interview, it is far more intricate - and, crucially, not a war between the peoples of Iran and Israel, but a clash rooted in the ideologies of two powerful regimes.Abedian, who grew up in Iran and is now a prominent South African economist, provides invaluable historical context. He traces the origins of this conflict back to 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini came to power with support from Western powers, and soon declared the elimination of Israel as a foundational tenet of the new Islamic Republic’s ideology. Since then, successive Iranian leaders - particularly the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei - have maintained an unwavering commitment to this stance.Over four decades, Iran has actively exported its ideology beyond its borders, Abedian explains. Using state resources - often at the expense of its own population - the regime has built up a network of militant allies across the region. Hezbollah in Lebanon, pro-Iranian factions in Syria and Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen all form part of what Tehran calls its “axis of resistance”. Yet for Iran’s ordinary citizens, this ideological campaign has come at a devastating cost.Abedian highlights the dire internal situation in Iran, describing it as a nation led by a regime with a mere 7–15% popular support. While Iranian women have been at the forefront of opposition - most recently in the internationally recognised “Women, Life, Freedom” movement - the government has responded with severe repression. Inflation has soared, public services have collapsed, and dissenters face imprisonment or worse. As Abedian starkly puts it, the regime has long lost interest in national welfare and now clings to power through intimidation and ideological warfare.Israel, on the other hand, has been closely monitoring this regional build-up for decades. “Since February 7, 1979,” says Abedian, “Israel has watched every move.” He claims that Israel has managed to infiltrate the Iranian regime at various levels, gathering intelligence and preparing for a decisive moment - which has now arrived.Why now? With the Iranian regime isolated domestically and increasingly non-compliant with international nuclear oversight, Abedian believes Israel has acted pre-emptively, not just in self-defence but to prevent the finalisation of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iran, he claims, has spent an estimated $2 trillion over 24 years to build a protective shield, believing - like North Korea - that nuclear capability guarantees regime survival.The situation has left both Israel and Iran’s leadership in existential postures. “One will survive, and one will fall,” Abedian says. It is not a skirmish for territory or policy change; it is an all-or-nothing duel between ideological extremes, fought with modern weapons and ancient grievances.On South Africa’s role, Abedian criticises the government’s simplistic condemnation of Israel’s actions without acknowledging Iran’s decades-long provocation. He draws a sharp distinction between diplomacy rooted in international law and wilful ignorance of historical context.Abedian is also sceptical about the future of South African telecoms giant MTN’s investment in Iran, describing it as entangled in corruption and vulnerable to collapse if the regime falls. With no clear successor to Iran’s leadership currently in sight, Abedian predicts a protracted and brutal struggle - but one that could ultimately lead to regime change.In the end, the economist paints a sombre but illuminating picture: a regime increasingly isolated, lashing out in desperation, while its people suffer and resist in silence. The Israeli-Iranian confrontation may be global news today, but for Iranians, it’s the latest chapter in a 45-year tragedy - one they hope will finally find an end.

Dr Iraj Abedian: Israel v Iran’s Regime - A half century in the making, this is a fight to the death

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