The Electoral Road Show with Wayne Sussman: ANC wobbling, DA improving, PA climbing fast

After over a year of by-elections since the national election, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman gives Chris Steyn an update of the latest shifts in the political landscape. “One of the trends we continue to see is that the ANC candidates for council in provinces like the Eastern Cape and Limpopo will know that they are very likely to hold on to their seats come the election next year. The party which should be happiest right now is probably the Patriotic Alliance because they've shown a continued growth of trajectory. But you're also seeing a party like the DA starting to put in good performances.” Previewing the next round of by-elections, Sussman warns that the ANC - that had a “very sharp fall” in a recent Soweto by-election - will face the “Chasing Pack” in the upcoming one; “the bragging rights for second place or even third place, because between MK, EFF, Patriotic Alliance, ActionSA and the DA…only five percentage points separated party two to six. So it's a real scrum in that Chasing Pack. And I think the pecking order is going to be very important.” Sussman also describes how the DA managed to edge out the ANC in Ga-Nala Mpumalanga. “The key municipality of eMahlahleni is now hung because the ANC has lost its outright majority.” He also dissects all the other recent results along with the prospects of the parties in the next round.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:02.533)By-election results are very important indicators of shifts in the country's political landscape and none better than Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman to keep us informed of those trends. Welcome, Wayne. Wayne Sussman (00:19.534)Hi Chris, very good to speak to you again. Chris Steyn (00:22.747)May we please preview next week's important by-elections? Wayne Sussman (00:27.79)Yes, so we had three by-elections last week, but I think next week is going to be really, really interesting. We know that Soweto is the most populous township in South Africa. We know that Johannesburg is the largest metropolitan area in South Africa. And there's going to be a by-election in Ward 29, which is...the Orlando East, Diepkloof area, but also including Noordgesicht…And what's interesting, there are a number of interesting things which we're to be watching closely here. First of all, the ANC is more vulnerable in this ward than they are in other wards across Soweto. We know and we discussed it here in BizNews a few weeks ago. You saw that the ANC have a very sharp fall in a Soweto by-election. So here is another Soweto by-election. But also the Chasing Pack, the bragging rights for second place or even third place, because between MK, EFF, Patriotic Alliance, Action SA and the DA, only five percentage points separated party two to six. So it's a real scrum in that Chasing Pack. And I think the pecking order is going to be very, important. And then we have often discussed, Chris, the Patriotic Alliance and how we must just look at the impact they're having on the Democratic Alliance, but also the African National Congress. And next week in the small town of Bonnievale in the Western Cape and in a part of Swellendam in the Western Cape, you're seeing two by-elections and these towns are very close to each other where the ANC councillors walked over to the Patriotic Alliance and are standing for the Patriotic Alliance. So this will give us a clear indication of whether the PA is also going to continue to hurt the ANC in its rural areas where it did well in previous elections. And then there's a fascinating by election coming up. Wayne Sussman (02:46.926)While most business people would have still been enjoying their vacation in January 2025, Herman Mashaba did a deal, ActionSA did a deal with Forum for Service Delivery, a Northwest based party in a very particular part of the Northwest. And next week, we're going to see a by-election in one of the most dysfunctional municipalities which you and I have discussed a few weeks ago, Ramotshere Moiloa in the Zeerust area, Herman Charles Bosman country. And there we know that the ANC have been beset by very large factional challenges. So we've seen the ANC be rock solid in many rural parts of the country, particularly Limpopo and the Eastern Cape, and that extends to the Northwest. So we'll see next week in the Northwest whether this rural wall of support for the ANC will remain - and I go back to Herman Mashaba and that January press conference because ActionSA will be contesting the by-election for the first time in the Northwest since they've done the, they've taken in Forum for Service Delivery - and this part of the Northwest is where Forum for Service Delivery has a good pocket of support; they're the second most popular support here. Wayne Sussman (04:14.262)So we're going to watch ANC versus Action SA. And then there also two by-elections in the stronghold provinces for the ANC, Limpopo and the Eastern Cape. Chris Steyn (04:06.855)Wayne, may I take you back to last week because you and I have not had a chance to talk about the results. There was one in particular that was really significant. Wayne Sussman (04:36.268)That is correct. And again, we've got to remember that South Africa is rapidly becoming more and more of an urban population, still of migration to the urban areas, and none more so than the province of Gauteng. So we know that we're going to be looking at Soweto next week, but last week, we went to Mamelodi. Mamelodi East. Mamaelodi is east of the Pretoria city centre so naturally Mamelodi East would be in the eastern part of Mamelodi. Obviously the home township of that famous soccer club Sundowns. And what is interesting here, Chris, is that there very few Zulu speakers and we have been watching what Umkhonto is doing in the Soweto townships, in the Gauteng townships. Now, what was going to be interesting here is what was MK going to do in an area where there are very few Zulu speakers. And if one looks at the Gauteng townships last year in the 2024 election, the ANC saw flames in Johannesburg, they saw flames in many parts of Ekurhuleni. They didn't see so many flames in the townships around the capital city. So here the ANC...held the ward with 52% to the vote. They were down six percentage points. So there was some decline. Psychologically, they were above the 50% mark. You also saw the second place EFF decline by five percentage points, moving from 28% to 23%. And Umkhonto we Sizwe, which did very poorly here in 2024, more than tripled its support to get 13 % of the vote, which I think, again, it's not taking 20% of the vote, a third of the vote, but a 13% of the vote means that they're establishing a foothold in a part of the province where they are weak. And this will satisfy…greatly. The DA were in fourth place. They grew from 4% to 11%. Wayne Sussman (06:50.828)So even though they finished behind Umkhonto we Sizwe, they'll also be satisfied with the growth. So again, you're not seeing the ANC fall as sharply as you saw them fall a few weeks ago in Soweto, but you're seeing Umkhonto we Sizwe and the DA making some incremental inroads and again, we'll watch, hopefully have more by-elections in Tshwane in the lead up to the election. Chris Steyn (07:11.463)Now, Wayne, after more than a year of by-elections since the national election, which party has the most hope? Wayne Sussman (07:27.82)That's a great question, Chris. I do want to speak about one other by-election which took place, but let me first answer that question. Again, there's more and more data. Okay, well, so let me just speak about there were two other by-elections and I'll answer an important question. Chris Steyn (07:36.828)Sorry, no, do that first. Wayne SussmanThe DA won a ward off the ANC in the small town of Ga-Nala, which is where the Kriel Power Station is… Wayne Sussman (07:57.102)…in the Highveld ridge of Mpumalanga, very close to the town of eMalahleni, previously known as Witbank. So it's a large population area in Mpumalanga. And here the DA edged out the ANC. And how did they do this? The DA getting 35% to the vote, up six percentage points. The ANC falling from just under 50% to the vote to 34%, Umkhonto we Sizwe getting 17%. And the EFF coming in fourth place with 14%, up from 9%. So this is an interesting ward. And again, when we look at 2024, which is your previous question, the DA actually edged the ANC here in 2024. The way they did it is that, and again, everyone focuses correctly on the devastation the ANC experienced in KwaZulu-Natal. But let's forget in Mpumalanga, in Mpumalanga is a province similar to Limpopo where the ANC did best in 1994, 1999, was neck-and-neck with Limpopo. Limpopo always slightly ahead. In 2024 last year, the ANC lost huge ground, falling from about 71% to 51%. And we go to a place like Ga-Nala, Kriel to understand this, where You saw the ANC lose votes to Umkhonto we Sizwe, a lot of Zulu-speaking voters there. You saw the EFF grow and also the DA grow. And this played itself out again in the by-election. The DA's base in the area of Kriel stayed with it. The DA did grow in the township area as well. The Umkhonto we Sizwe grew dramatically in the township. And the EFF grew also in the township. So in this township voting district in Ga-Nala, where most of the voters in the ward are, in this by-election, the ANC's vote share fell from 80%, i.e. in 2021, it was a slam dunk for the ANC. Four out of five people in the township of Ga-Nala voted for the ANC. In the by-election in 2025, only half of the voters in the township voted for the ANC. Wayne Sussman (10:19.04)So this is how the DA won the award and they'll be delighted with this. And also, by the way, this is a sign of things we're going to look at next year. The key municipality of eMahlahleni is now hung because the ANC has lost its outright majority. They only have 50% of the seats. So there are all these knock on effects from these by-elections. So I've just given you some worrying news for the ANC. We're going to end off last week's by-elections by another positive story. And if the ANC wants positive stories, we go back to the Eastern Cape, to Elundini, right up near the Drakensberg, near Lesotho, high up in the mountains. And here, Chris, I just gave you a story of gloom for the ANC. The ANC grows here from 81% to 91%. Nine out of every 10 votes in this rural seat in the Elundini municipality, voted for the ANC, and all the other parties were just too far behind to even deserve a credit or a mention on this podcast. This is a, without going back to your question beforehand, what are the trends we see? One of the trends we continue to see is that the ANC candidates for council in provinces like the Eastern Cape and Limpopo will know that they are very likely to hold on to their seats come the election next year. The party which should be most happiest right now is probably the Patriotic Alliance because they've shown a continued growth of trajectory. But you're also seeing a party like the DA starting to put in good performances. And those are some of the themes you've seen since the 2024 elections. Chris Steyn (12:09.459)Thank you, Wayne. That was Wayne Sussman, Elections Analyst, speaking to BizNews. I'm Chris Steyn.

The Electoral Road Show with Wayne Sussman: ANC wobbling, DA improving, PA climbing fast

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