DA in deep trouble, PA on the rise, Lesufi’s hotel showers & Cyril’s SONA: The Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman

In the latest edition of the Electoral Roadshow with Chris Steyn, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman dissects the latest by-election results in which the Patriotic Alliance (PA) won big again, while the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) managed to hold MKP at bay. “In 2021, the Patriotic Alliance only won one single Proportional Representation seat in George.They weren't a player in George politics. This morning as we wake up, they are now the third largest party in the George council. They have won five consecutive by-elections. They've won a seat off the GOOD party and now four off the Democratic Alliance, including three seats in the space of three weeks. The DA are in deep trouble in George and the PA are on the rise.” Sussman further comments on Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi’s hotel shower amid the severe water supply crisis in the province. “This is a major challenge. And if the ANC and its coalition partners cannot turn it around…there’ll be a lot of ANC councillors who will lose their proportional representation seats at the very least come the next election.” Sussman also previews tonight’s State of the Nation Address (SONA).Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris SteynWelcome to the Electoral Roadshow with me, Chris Steyn and analyst Wayne Sussman. Morning, Wayne.Wayne SussmanGood morning, Chris. Good to be speaking to you on the State of the Nation Day.Chris SteynBefore we go to SONA, let us go to George, where the Patriotic Alliance had another big win.Wayne SussmanThe Patriotic Alliance have found a very happy hunting ground in George, the third most populous municipality in the Western Cape. You'd remembered in about the middle of January, third week of January, we spoke about two by-elections in George where the PA took seats off the Democratic Alliance. Well, yesterday they didn't just take a seat off the Democratic Alliance, they got their best ever percentage in a George election and certainly in George by election, where they moved from 22% of the vote to 65% of the vote and really gave the DA a shellacking in the area of New Dawn Park, which is near the Tembuletu Township, the eastern part of George.And yeah, the DA falling from 46% to 34%. The African National Congress, I mean, they weren't in the running, but they didn't even get 1% of the vote. So just to break this down, why this result is particularly meaningful for the Patriotic Alliance. When we spoke in the third week of January, we said the key to the Patriotic Alliance winning these wards is one, they're holding on to their support. Two, the smaller parties like GOOD and Plaaslike Besorgde Inwoners and other local parties are moving over because they're not in the ballot and are moving over their support to the PA and the ANC are moving over their support to the PA. The other thing we said and it held true last night is that the PA are registering new voters or voters who've sat out previous elections. However, last night they were also able to win over a good chunk of Democratic Alliance voters. And this is really interesting as we observe the road to the local government election. This, again, the PA getting well over 60% to the vote. And just to explain what has happened in George, in 2021, the Patriotic Alliance only won one single proportional representation seat in George. They were…Wayne Sussman…sitting in the cheap seats. They weren't a player in George politics. This morning as we wake up, they are now the third largest party in the George council. They have won five consecutive by-elections. They've won a seat off the GOOD party and now they are four for four, off the Democratic Alliance, including three seats in the space of three weeks off the Democratic Alliance. The DA are in deep trouble in George and the PA are on the rise.Chris SteynOkay, over to KZN the Inkata Freedom Party managed to keep MKP at bay.Wayne SussmanCorrect…And this was a curious by-election to watch. Because while this is an IFP seat, the southern part of KwaZulu-Natal this is the Ugu district, is a traditional ANC stronghold. And then of course the emergence of Umkhonto we Sizwe. Umkhonto we Sizwe was the most popular party in this ward when we consider the voting districts which make up this ballot in 2024. So this was really hard result to predict what could happen. And the IFP held onto the seat, winning 43% to the vote, down from 50%, but a reminder to the viewers and listeners that…MKP, Umkhonto we Sizwe Party didn't exist in 2021. And the ANC came second, a solid second, with 32% down from 45% to the vote. Now, where did Umkhonto we Sizwe Party finish? Umkhonto we Sizwe won over 35% to the vote in 2024 to finish first, as I mentioned. They finished a distant third in this by-election with only 16% of the vote and the National Freedom Party getting 8% to the vote. When you look at the voting districts which make up the ward, Umkhonto we Sizwe didn't beat the IFP or the ANC in any single voting district. They were third in all six voting districts. You saw the IFP winning four out of the six voting districts and the ANC winning two out of the six.And I would say, and look, there aren't many voters in this part in the area of Hlanzeni and in Nkalokazi, in the uMzumbe municipality, in southern KwaZulu-Natal. But this is a crucial win for the IFP. We've got a number of by-elections coming up in KwaZulu-Natal. Over the last few weeks, we've been speaking a lot about the Western Cape. Over the next few weeks, our attention is going to shift much more to KwaZulu-Natal. And the IFP...Wayne Sussman…are the first party out of the starting blocks on this road to the local government elections.Chris SteynWhat are we looking at in the next round of by elections?Wayne SussmanYeah, we have a two-week break and we have three by elections coming up. The first one is a ward where we've already had a by election. We had a by election, I think about a year ago in the area of Bryanston and Blairgowrie n Johannesburg. We have another by election here. This is one of the safest DA seats in the city of Johannesburg. So it's interesting to see quite a crowded field, …ActionSA, not RizeMzanzi, not BOSA. I don't think the Freedom Front are running, but there other parties challenging the DA in the stronghold. And then we go to Polokwane, which is the most populous municipality in Limpopo, a by-election very near the Moria area where the Zionist Christian Church's headquarters are, and the Easter gathering takes place. This is an ANC stronghold. So the ANC is going to want to lay down a marker in Polokwane in two weeks time. And then the one which is probably the one which is the hardest area to explain, but the most anticipated by-election is Nongoma in Northern KwaZulu Natal. This is a National Freedom Party seat. Nongoma is an area where the National Freedom Party have traditionally done the best in KwaZulu Natal and therefore the best in South Africa. But this is an area where the IFP will believe they can win the seat and again, continuous momentum. Umkhonto we Sizwe will want to show that they are a party which can win seats like this in Northern KwaZulu-Natal, and the ANC will want to show, I don't expect the ANC to win, which would be a major upset, but to show that they still have support. So it's going to be a very interesting race. That's, I think, the by-election you and I will review first when we next speak in about two weeks time.Chris SteynIndeed, well, tonight is the State of the Nation Address or the Terrible State of the Nation address, depending where you put the terrible. Are we in for another disappointing speech from President Cyril Ramaphosa? What do you think, Wayne?Wayne SussmanWell, as you know, I'm a single tracked election guy. I've got a few more tricks up my sleeve or and other skills. But let me just say this, that we are in an election year. So even if the election had to take place in late January, and I still think it will take place in November, that's what the indicators suggest, the president is not going to have another State of the Nation address before the local government election takes place. Therefore, we know going into an election year, the President will want to be upbeat. He'll want to think of policies and suggestions which will stimulate the economy, which will see an improvement in service delivery in this election year.This is, yes, there are many challenges that beset this great country of ours right now, but always in an election year speech, the President will want to exude confidence and optimism and know that while many residents across Gauteng, from the suburbs to the townships currently sit without water, that he has a solution for that, that he'll want to project that there will be economic growth and job creation and that the country will improve in this calendar year. I think he'll reflect strongly on the G20 that this was a successful country and that there are more signs of good to come. But again, it's going to be a challenging speech. I don't know if people still have the drinking games like they did with the Jacob Zuma era, but let's see whether South Africans are going to tune in and whether it shifts the needle, I wonder.Chris SteynYou mentioned the water crisis, Wayne. And let's go to Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi showering in a hotel while people are queuing with buckets. Somebody likened it to Marie Antoinette saying, Let them eat cake. Lesufi, Let them shower in hotels. Your thoughts?Wayne SussmanYeah, sometimes politicians should keep quiet before speaking or whatever comes to their mind. And this is a real own goal. Again, the city of Johannesburg is facing an immense water crisis right now. I also understand Ekurhuleni is also experiencing this right now. And this extends not just to the suburbs, but to working class areas, to townships, to the inner city of these metropolitan areas. This is a major challenge. And if the ANC and its coalition partners cannot turn it around, I think it will pay a price at the ballot box. Just to remind viewers and listeners, Johannesburg is the city with the most residents in the country. Gauteng is the province with the most residents in this country. And it's also where much of the media is located. BizNews, one of the exceptions in beautiful. But if there's a negative media sentiment, which I believe there is right now, about this water crisis, and it's understandable, I think it does not bode well for Dada Moreiro and the ANC. And they need an urgent plan which shows an improvement. I mean, this has been a problem, a crisis, festering for many months now and possibly years - and we are in an election year and there needs to be an urgency. I know Dada Moreiro unveiled the Bomb Squad. Residents haven't seen this Bomb Squad do much. Now is the time for action. Otherwise, there'll be a lot of ANC councillors who will lose their proportional representation seats at the very least come the next election. There are a few greater challenges facing the ANC right now in this water crisis.Chris SteynThank you. That was Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman on the Electoral Road Show with me, Chris Steyn. Thank you, Wayne.

DA in deep trouble, PA on the rise, Lesufi’s hotel showers & Cyril’s SONA: The Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman

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