Expats face insecurity as unrest devastates Mozambique economy

Mozambique is on a knife edge on the eve of the inauguration of President-elect, Frelimo's Daniel Chapo. In this interview, Tertius Jacobs, Focus Group's Head Analyst for Mozambique and East Africa, describes how the local economy has lost billions of meticals due to protests disrupting road networks, especially between Komatipoort, the Lebombo Border and the Maputo Port, while South Africa – which uses the N4 through Mozambique to the Maputo Port extensively for exports – are losing millions of rands daily. The "massive disruptions" have also devastated the tourist sector – and some travellers, who defied security alerts, have had to be relocated from "threatened locations" to safer areas. Meanwhile, expats are facing growing insecurity with some having suffered threats to their person and their assets. Jacobs says the protesting electorate has been "much more confrontational" than in previous elections. "We've had multiple reports of civilians or protesters overwhelming the security forces and even seizing their weapons.".Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here..If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Chris Steyn (00:02.305)Mozambique is on a knife edge on the eve of the inauguration of president-elect, Frelimo's Daniel Chapo. We get the latest on the security situation there from Welcome, Tertius..Tertius Jacobs (00:22.862)Thank you for having me..Chris Steyn (00:25.121)What can you tell us?.Tertius Jacobs (00:28.909)Unrest persists. At the end of last year, we sent out an advisory to our clients and also made it available to the public via our platforms, warning holidaymakers to stay away from Mozambique while the situation remains volatile..Not everyone received this message. Some people went on holiday in Mozambique, and recently we've seen tourists relocated by the local industry from certain threatened locations to safer areas. Many have faced disruptions due to protest action..The Constitutional Council's validation of the election results sparked additional unrest. This past week, Mondlane returned to Mozambique to continue his efforts in-country. He landed safely and is currently there, but the unrest persists..To a large extent, the protests have gained momentum organically. While Mondlane initially called for action, much of the unrest now seems to flare up naturally rather than being orchestrated by him directly. The last significant call to action he made was before the Constitutional Council validated the results. Over the past week, he has encouraged demonstrations but emphasized no destruction of property or violence..Tertius Jacobs (02:35.650)Despite his call for peaceful demonstrations, we still see violence and unrest, sometimes teetering on the edge of rioting. The situation remains volatile across the country, with a risk of events spiraling out of control..As I mentioned previously, this unrest could continue indefinitely. The big question is where this is heading and what outcomes we might see in the short to medium term..Chris Steyn (03:17.569)How many people have been killed over the past three months?.Tertius Jacobs (03:23.042)That's a good question. The numbers have been escalating. I believe the death toll directly related to civil unrest has exceeded a thousand, though I might be slightly off as I've been out of the loop recently..Beyond the fatalities, the repercussions on the population are significant. The economic impact on the country and the wider region is severe. The ongoing violence has desensitized many to casualties, a sad reality stemming from years of conflict, including the issues in Cabo Delgado..Chris Steyn (05:20.839)Are the majority of people fleeing to Malawi, or are many coming to South Africa?.Tertius Jacobs (05:28.782)It depends. Tourists may flee, but local nationals are more confrontational this time. Unlike in past elections, where unrest was quickly subdued by security forces, civilians and protesters now frequently confront and overwhelm the authorities, even seizing weapons.."Fleeing" might not be the right term. Some businesspeople may stay away or delay their return, but mass displacement isn't prominent..Read more: Katzenellenbogen: SA faces a diplomatic dilemma as Mozambique teeters on the brink.Chris Steyn (07:01.025)So, it's more a case of displacement?.Tertius Jacobs (07:05.858)Yes..Tertius Jacobs (07:08.568)Most locals relocate to less-affected areas rather than leaving the country entirely. Only those with the means might flee to Malawi or South Africa, but the masses seem more inclined to participate in the unrest than to flee..Chris Steyn (07:37.858)Is there an estimate of the damage caused?.Tertius Jacobs (07:44.566)The damage is in the billions. On a domestic level, the disrupted road network between the Komatipoort (Lebombo) border and the Maputo Port has caused significant losses..Elsewhere, unrest in Pemba and Inhambane Province—Mozambique's tourist hub—has severely affected the tourism sector. The timing, during the festive period, has been particularly damaging as this is when the sector earns the bulk of its revenue..Regionally, South Africa has also been affected, as the N4 highway, a key route for exports from northern South Africa to the Maputo Port, has faced significant disruptions, resulting in millions of rands in daily losses..Tertius Jacobs (09:32.894)So, we've seen… every time there's a bit of a lull, a bit of a break, the border will open, and they will try to use this time to, as quickly as possible, get as much done. But the issue is still there, and as long as this issue of instability persists, you know, it compounds. We may speak of millions or billions of rands or meticals now, but it can inflate to a lot more than that..Chris Steyn (10:04.693)So, the economic impact has been devastating..Tertius Jacobs (10:09.164)Yes, definitely. On a micro level, you will see some protesters engaging in looting. And this too has had a massive impact on smaller businesses—your small- to medium-sized businesses. They are facing a big impact. Again, in the medium to longer term, there are questions about how it will affect the lower and middle classes of Mozambique..We've had people in the country telling us that grocery stores are empty. It has become a massive issue for lower- and middle-class people to get food..Interestingly, the lower class, who are more dependent on the informal market, subsistence farming, and fishing, may not be as heavily affected. They rely less on grocery stores and more on small markets, which resume intermittently, providing food for them. They're somewhat used to this lifestyle. However, in the medium to long term, disruptions in the economy will lead to higher transport costs, making their lives more difficult. From the micro level all the way up to the macro level, things are just devastating..Chris Steyn (11:52.525)Now, there are many South Africans living in Mozambique—farming, working there, running resorts. How have they been affected, to your personal knowledge, by the unrest?.Tertius Jacobs (12:05.196)Yes, we've had an influx of requests for information and security services. To be honest, we've been busier in Mozambique over the past three months than we were throughout last year due to this unrest and the direct threat to economic interests..Assets have been threatened, and we've had reports of individuals being physically threatened by protesters. From what we've observed, foreigners operating in South Africa often prefer to remain there, focusing on gathering information and securing supplies to endure the unrest..Some business owners prefer to stay with their assets, while others prioritize their physical security, relying heavily on private security companies. But there's only so much you can do against mob mentality. The best approach is to stay well-informed. This is what we advocate for—better planning and implementation of relevant mitigation measures rather than just building higher walls, which can be scaled..In areas experiencing heavy unrest, expatriates are more inclined to evacuate. However, operations in northern Mozambique, where the unrest is less severe, may continue. Over the festive period, some businesses might take a break, making evacuation less of a concern and shifting the focus to deciding when to return..Chris Steyn (15:18.507)Now, expats having their lives and assets threatened—how is that linked to post-election violence, or is there more to it?.Tertius Jacobs (15:29.166)There's a general sense that, when things start to spiral, emotions take over, and the situation becomes more subjective. While I wouldn't say there's outright xenophobia, there is a risk of fear-based sentiment emerging. Expatriates or foreign companies could be targeted, but this is more of an ancillary issue rather than a primary threat..The bigger problem lies with general unrest, violence, and opportunistic behavior—looting and vandalizing, for instance. This is what we try to make everyone aware of, helping our clients take measures to guard against these risks and make informed decisions..I wouldn't say there's a massive xenophobic sentiment at play, but the unrest, combined with opportunism and emotional responses, does create vulnerabilities for expats and businesses..Read more: Betrayed by silence: How Southern Africa failed Mozambique – Justice Malala.Chris Steyn (17:17.197)So, has there been an influx of private security companies from South Africa?.Tertius Jacobs (17:23.022)Mozambique has faced instability for decades—from the civil war to the Renamo Junta in central Mozambique and the ongoing issues in Cabo Delgado. This has created sustained demand for private security and information services..While I wouldn't call it a massive influx, there has been a reactivation of security operations. We've engaged with several security companies stepping up to meet the demand..At our information company, we focus on providing intelligence, documentation, planning, and mitigation strategies. The worsening situation has spurred increased investment and expansion in the security and information sectors, which thrive in times of heightened instability..Chris Steyn (18:55.915)Now, what are you telling your clients at the moment? What are your future predictions?.Tertius Jacobs (19:02.028)Yeah, so at the moment, you know, we are still warning about the unrest. At this stage, the recent news is that, you know, Mondlane is still on the whole narrative of opposing the election results and the current government, including the inauguration of the new president. All of this is still being opposed. And I think the really big issue here is Mondlane's future in the political sphere..Last year, we reiterated several times to our clients the question of where Mondlane is going if he does not become president. This is a major issue because, within Podemos, the party that supports him, it's not currently confirmed that he has any seat in the National Assembly, which kind of questions where he might fit in the political landscape. If he does not become president and has no seat in the National Assembly, essentially his voice may be a bit moot. And that's what we are looking out for. He may be fighting to keep some kind of voice at this stage, but the larger narrative we are working on is that there is a risk that the political stakeholders in Mozambique might systematically sideline Mondlane to the point where he fades away. If that happens, the drive and motivation he instills in the electorate might also fade. If that happens, it's sort of a sad day for democracy, but for stability and peace, it might be beneficial. When and if that happens remains an open question..Podemos and Frelimo have, I think it was yesterday or the day before, taken their seats in the National Assembly..Tertius Jacobs (21:15.982)So that again raises the question: does Podemos approve of the election results? Renamo and MDM have abstained from that inaugural or ceremonial process of taking seats in parliament. But there are people in the country of the opinion that they may do so quietly over the next month or so..The future we see in the short, medium, and even long term is that there is a probability of things resuming the status quo, calming down, and going back to how they were before this election..With Frelimo still in power, now with Podemos as the main opposition, that might be an interesting development to observe. It is worth reiterating that Podemos is a party made up of former Frelimo members. So that raises another question: can they be bought or convinced to do the bidding of Frelimo in the National Assembly? That is one narrative, one possibility..The other possibility is that the unrest continues for a very long time. How long? That's, you know, crystal-ball gazing—we are not sure. But I think there is strong motivation for Mondlane personally to keep it going and to work out something. But even then, it's sort of a Catch-22 for him because if he compromises, he risks losing a lot of regard from his supporters. It would appear as if he is giving up and giving in to the higher powers in Mozambique. So it is really a tricky situation for him regarding where he might want to go with this or his ultimate objective. It's simply a case of us waiting to see..In the interim, we do suspect—or expect—that the unrest will continue, at least for the short term..Tertius Jacobs (23:35.677)And the sustainability of this unrest will also heavily rely on how the government and the police react. A lot of the hard-handed responses have actually fueled much of the more violent protesting and unrest that we have seen. If the government can control the security forces and their harsh reactions, and if they are successful in sidelining Mondlane, then over the medium term, we might see things easing out and stabilizing. But it remains to be seen how this will pan out and how long Mondlane can keep this up..Chris Steyn (24:22.125)Thank you. That was Tertius Jacobs, Focus Group's Head Analyst for Mozambique and East Africa, giving BizNews viewers an update on the security situation in Mozambique. I'm Chris Steyn. Thank you, Tertius..Read also:.RW Johnson: America's Muskification of the State – Desperate remedy for a desperate problemJohn Matisonn: ANC, the wounded buffalo, faces a challenging 2025GG Alcock: Ignorance shaped destructive reaction to 'Spaza poisoned food' fracas

Expats face insecurity as unrest devastates Mozambique economy

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