Emerging sector champions Gerrie Fourie, GG Alcock answer the hand-wringing “30% unemployment” question

Derangement describes the detached armchair observers who judge those in the arena. Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie and Kasinomics author GG Alcock have had their fill of these critics - and explain why to BizNews editor Alec Hogg in this forthright interview about the unappreciated slug of South Africa’s economy. The two champions of SA’s Emerging Sector explain why the official data is badly wrong - and how the country’s unemployment rate is closer to 10% than the widely quoted 30%. Hitting back at the hand-wringers with a message of hope - and reality.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.South Africa’s unemployment crisis may not be what it seems.In a wide-ranging conversation with BizNews founder Alec Hogg, Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie and renowned informal economy expert G.G. Alcock challenged the widely accepted statistic that South Africa’s unemployment rate is over 32%. According to Fourie and Alcock, the real number could be closer to 10%, once South Africa’s vast and misunderstood informal economy is properly accounted for.This, they argue, is not wishful thinking. It’s about shifting the lens - and unlocking the country’s true economic engine.“We’re missing the real story”Fourie, who leads one of the country’s biggest banks with over 24 million clients, says traditional economic models are failing to grasp the full picture. “The big companies are not employing. Government is not employing. It’s the entrepreneurs who are employing,” he said.Capitec’s data backs that up. Of its 9 million transactional banking clients, 3 million receive income not from formal payrolls, but from multiple informal sources. Extrapolate from there - and consider that each small entrepreneur supports multiple others - and the number of people sustained by the informal sector skyrockets to over 9 million. That aligns with Finscope’s independent estimate of 10–12 million people economically active in this “unseen” market.“People are stuck on the 32% number,” Fourie said. “But that’s a surface statistic. It ignores what’s happening on the streets of Soweto, Khayelitsha, and Tembisa.”A nation of hustlersAlcock, who coined the term “kasinomics” to describe township economics, is blunt: “We are a nation of entrepreneurs. Government says we need more entrepreneurs in townships - rubbish. We already have them.”He points to Stats SA data showing that 77% of social grant recipients also earn additional income. “They could just sit back. But they don’t. They hustle, rent out rooms, run spaza shops, fix things, sell food. That’s not laziness. That’s entrepreneurship.”Yet these microbusinesses are often labelled survivalist or informal, a perception Alcock says is damaging. “That’s like taking an Uber driver and saying that’s the entirety of the formal economy while ignoring Mercedes-Benz,” he quipped. “There are people running million-rand businesses from backyards. They are proud of their work and don’t want to leave it. They want to grow it.”From startups to scale-upsOne of the key ideas both men return to is the need to stop obsessing over startups - and instead focus on scaling up existing businesses.“Starting a business is hard,” Alcock said. “Especially in the informal space, with no access to capital, support or infrastructure. But what if we supported businesses that already exist?”Simple interventions - like providing secure trading spaces, affordable card machines, access to stock, or procurement linkages - could be transformative, he argues. Capitec is already acting on these ideas.Fourie noted that Capitec is rolling out initiatives to help cash-based businesses move to digital. “We’ve made business banking pricing identical to personal banking - low, flat, and transparent. And we’re providing cheap, easy-to-use card machines, encouraging people to shift from cash to digital so we can better understand their businesses and help them grow.”Once these entrepreneurs start using electronic payments, they become visible - and fundable. “We can score them. We can lend to them. We’ve already seen clients go from R5,000 loans to buying delivery bakkies.”A call for corporate South AfricaWhile Capitec is moving quickly into the “emerging market” (they prefer that to “informal sector”), Alcock says more big businesses need to get in.“PG Bison is working with 3,500 township carpenters. Heineken is upgrading taverns - adding security, bathrooms, menus. That’s real enterprise development,” he said. “Zandla zigeza zandla,” he added in isiZulu. “The hands wash each other.”These models aren’t about handouts. They’re about mutual benefit.Fourie agrees. “I used to think this was a competitive advantage for Capitec. Now I see it’s a national opportunity. We must all do our part.”The government questionAre politicians listening?Yes, says Fourie - cautiously. “There’s understanding. Now it’s about how. We’re doing pilot programs and sharing data. But government must shift how it sees the economy.”Title deeds, for example, are a sticking point. In many townships, properties remain in grandparents’ names, which limits access to credit. Fixing that could unlock enormous value. And while fears about taxation often dominate formalisation debates, both Fourie and Alcock say it's a red herring.“Paying tax was only the 7th or 8th concern when we spoke to business owners,” said Fourie. “Their priorities are safety, stock, storage. And many want to go digital.”Alcock added, “An IFC report found that only 3% of informal businesses avoid digital tools because of tax. 97% want to go digital - they just need better infrastructure.”A shift in perceptionBoth men stress that changing how we see informal traders is step one. “These aren't beggars or hustlers. These are businesspeople,” Alcock said.“They’re South Africa’s real job creators,” Fourie added. “If we want growth, this is where it starts.”What if, Hogg mused in closing, we gave this sector not scorn or regulation - but support?Maybe then, kasinomics wouldn't just be a buzzword. It might just be South Africa’s best shot at inclusive economic transformation.

Emerging sector champions Gerrie Fourie, GG Alcock answer the hand-wringing “30% unemployment” question

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