Frans Cronjé on ANC self-harm that caused yesterday’s polling earthquake, disastrous US relationship

Freshly returned from a working trip to the US and Europe, Dr Frans Cronjé is not surprised to see IRR polling puts the DA ahead of the ANC. it’s a consequence, he says, of Luthuli House’s penchant for scoring own goals. In this interview with BizNews editor Alec Hogg, SA’s leading political analyst explains how ANC blunders on the VAT increase and the relationship with the USA are akin to conscious self-harm..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here..If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here:.Listen here:.BizNews Reporter.A political earthquake is shaking South Africa’s democracy. The ANC, once the towering colossus of South African politics, now finds itself below the 30% mark in the latest polling, overtaken for the first time by the Democratic Alliance (DA). In a revealing BizNews conversation with Alec Hogg, political analyst and Social Research Foundation (SRF) chairman Frans Cronje explains how this seismic shift is rooted not in ideology but in the harsh material realities South Africans face..“This is not a drill,” says Cronje. “Twenty years ago, the ANC was sitting at 70%. Today, it’s polling in the 30s. The country is changing at lightning speed.”.And that change, according to Cronje, is being driven by a collapsing faith among ANC voters who can no longer ignore the government's failure to deliver basic economic improvements. Fixed investment remains low, job creation stagnant, and the economic malaise is deepening..Three broken bonds.The ANC’s slide, Cronje argues, is propelled by three broken bonds that once held its disillusioned voters in place. First was fear — fear that losing the ANC would bring chaos. The successful establishment of the Government of National Unity (GNU) after the 2024 elections has largely quelled that fear..Second was suspicion — a widespread belief among ANC supporters, fostered by toxic media narratives, that a DA-led government would bring back apartheid. Seeing the DA in governance without such regression has dissolved that paranoia..Read more:.“Political earthquake” - IRR polling shows DA above ANC for the first time.Third was loyalty to Cyril Ramaphosa. But with the ANC’s 2027 conference looming and the president likely to step down, that remaining emotional tether may soon be cut. The result: an electorate in flux, searching for a new political home. .“This 10% of the electorate — what we call free agents — will bounce around wildly over the next three years,” says Cronje. “That means we’re going to see some incredible volatility.”.The DA's VAT gamble pays off.Against this backdrop, the DA’s strategic opposition to the VAT increase appears to have been a political masterstroke..Back in 2024, Cronje warned the DA on BizNews that supporting a VAT hike would be disastrous. The party listened — and the polls now suggest that decision catalyzed a surge in public support. “For six weeks, the ANC essentially ran an opposition campaign,” Cronje explains, “threatening the GNU and pushing an extremely unpopular tax increase that even their own voters oppose three to one.”.The irony is striking: in an attempt to push through a tax measure, the ANC alienated its base, boosted its main rival, and jeopardized its coalition. “You want to talk about political derangement?” Alec Hogg asks. Cronje agrees. “It’s as nuts as the way they’re managing the relationship with the US.”.America, missed opportunities, and diplomatic drift.Indeed, South Africa’s global standing also came under scrutiny. With the United States poised to expand trade and investment across Africa, Cronje says Pretoria is fumbling a historic opportunity. “There is not a single senior South African diplomat in the US who can talk to anyone senior,” he says bluntly. “We’re cutting ourselves out of potentially lucrative partnerships.”.While countries like Angola host US-Africa Business Summits and Zimbabwe reaches out to Washington, South Africa remains embroiled in unproductive spats. “Even Lesotho is getting praise,” Cronje notes. “But South Africa? Not so much.”.And with Trump’s political resurgence looming in the US, the ANC’s mismanagement of this relationship could have far-reaching consequences. “If you spend your time insulting him and have no one in America to talk for you, then it’s not that they cut you out — you cut yourself out.”.Read more: .The ANC needs the DA, but they won’t share the reins: William Saunderson-Meyer.A conservative country misunderstood.One of the most profound misreads, says Cronje, is the notion — still popular in international circles — that South African politics is a simplistic binary of black versus white..“That’s outdated, dangerous thinking,” he says. “South Africa is a conservative country, center-right, with black and white citizens often sharing the same values — values not far off from mainstream American conservatism.”.From the land issue to farm security, the real challenge lies in recognizing the complexity and nuance of modern South Africa. “Fixing land imbalances? Focus on productive value, not just hectares. Address property rights, especially for black South Africans who still lack title to the land they occupy.”.The future of the GNU.The fragility of the GNU was a major theme in the discussion. Factional battles within the ANC — notably between Ramaphosa and Paul Mashatile — and the party’s discomfort at being “rolled over” by the DA threaten to destabilize the coalition. Yet Cronje sees these tensions not as a death knell but as growing pains..“This is not the end of the GNU,” he insists. “It’s the beginning. And it’s good that the DA is learning to flex its muscle. In politics, respect is forged through power, not politeness.”.Looking ahead to 2029, Cronje is cautiously optimistic. If current trends persist — the ANC hemorrhaging support and the DA learning to assert itself — the next GNU could emerge from a more balanced and more productive political environment..“The age of coalitions has begun,” says Hogg in conclusion. “And the future of South Africa may well depend on how these early skirmishes shape what comes next.”

Frans Cronjé on ANC self-harm that caused yesterday’s polling earthquake, disastrous US relationship

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