Gareth van Onselen: By-election tracker signals ANC collapse to 35% - data reveals SA’s political shift

A new by-election tracker from Victory Research CEO Gareth van Onselen cuts through the noise - and the numbers are stark. The ANC is in long-term decline, potentially heading toward 35%, while the DA shows signs of recovery and smaller parties surge in key strongholds..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.00:00:08:16 - 00:00:36:21Alec HoggGareth van Onselen has got a very large fan club amongst the BizNews tribe. And the reason for this is that there is so much narrative, so much talk. But he doesn’t talk — he points to facts, research, what the research shows. And that’s what we can understand. The rational mind can actually get that. I think that’s why I’m delighted to be talking to Gareth about a new tracker that he has brought out at a very appropriate time.00:00:36:23 - 00:01:03:06Alec HoggWe have by-elections in South Africa on an ongoing basis. They are almost like gauging the temperature of the political environment. And Gareth has worked out a new tracker which will show us the temperature of the by-elections. We’ll be finding out more in a moment.00:01:03:07 - 00:01:30:13Alec HoggWhat made you want to do this, Gareth? Was it that by-elections, I suppose, up until 2024 were kind of irrelevant, given that the ANC dominated so much and they might win or lose one here or there? And they’re always at a local level. But things have really changed in the past couple of years, with whole councils moving due to the results of by-elections.00:01:30:15 - 00:01:42:11Alec HoggWhat, though, motivated you to go? You’ve got a big job as the CEO of Victory Research, so this is something — an additional task that you gave yourself. Why?00:01:42:13 - 00:02:05:10Gareth van OnselenYeah, so I think the brutal answer to that is just that I’m a bit of a nerd. And I love numbers, and I love stats, and I love ordering them so that they make sense. I think by-elections are a particular grey area in South Africa.00:02:05:12 - 00:02:25:05Gareth van OnselenOutside of Wayne — I think he does an excellent show on your channel and writes for the Daily Maverick — there’s not much in terms of analysis of them. And one of the problems is, you know, while someone like Wayne is, I think, without peer when it comes to explaining local politics and what’s happened in a particular set of by-elections and what the driving forces are on the day…00:02:25:05 - 00:02:46:23Gareth van Onselen…there isn’t much data out there that takes a step back and looks at the bigger picture. What do all the numbers say over time? And so this tries to address that. It tries to provide some broader context to the trends that underlie by-elections outside of any one particular week.00:02:46:23 - 00:03:05:09Gareth van OnselenAnd I think it does that pretty effectively. We’ll have to see — it’s a brand new product. This is the first edition that I’m showing you now. I’ve actually just sent it out today.00:03:05:09 - 00:03:13:14Gareth van OnselenAnd just if I could take a second — it’s only going to be available on email, but it’s free. If you want one, just send me your name and email address and I’ll add you to the mailing list.00:03:13:19 - 00:03:34:09Alec HoggSo glad to hear that, Gareth. When I started looking at by-elections after the 2011 local municipal elections, it was almost like — why was I doing this? And then, of course, as you say, Wayne Sussman became more and more in the public consciousness.00:03:34:09 - 00:03:56:18Alec HoggBut this is going to add again for those who are going to the polls in their local municipalities. It’s less about what happened in one place and more about the broader trend. Take us through it.00:03:56:18 - 00:04:11:06Alec HoggWe’ve got it on the screen, and you’ve got some very interesting data to show us. I’ll try and explain for those just listening as well.00:04:11:10 - 00:04:33:20Gareth van OnselenYes. So I’ll take you through it. Let me just make some points first. The tracker has every single by-election in it since the 7th of September 2011. So that’s two full cycles.00:04:33:20 - 00:04:57:03Gareth van OnselenIt also tracks five major parties — the ANC, DA, EFF, PA, Freedom Front Plus, IFP, and MK. But I think what I should show you is just the ANC, because that’s where people should focus.00:04:57:05 - 00:05:22:01Gareth van OnselenThe ANC is very important when it comes to by-elections. It competes in almost all of them — around 98%. That gives it a huge sample size, and its by-election performance closely mirrors its local government election results.00:05:22:01 - 00:06:49:11Gareth van OnselenBy-elections happen when ward councillors leave — death, resignation, retirement. A vacancy is created, and a new election is held in that ward. They are like micro-elections. Individually limited, but collectively very powerful.00:07:17:10 - 00:08:11:05Gareth van OnselenThis is the ANC’s annual graph. You can see its performance across time — and as we move into the current cycle, it is at an all-time low.00:08:52:19 - 00:09:24:16Gareth van OnselenThat downward trend strongly suggests the ANC is heading toward around 40%, possibly even the mid-30s.00:10:35:10 - 00:11:19:23Gareth van OnselenIt’s a combination of apathy and alienation. Lower turnout and dissatisfaction are both driving the decline.00:13:19:04 - 00:14:11:17Gareth van OnselenThe tracker suggests the ANC is headed toward ~35%. Turnout stabilises around 40%.00:16:06:19 - 00:17:18:22Gareth van OnselenThe EFF’s support is stable — around 12–13%. It’s not collapsing, despite the narrative.00:22:56:17 - 00:24:20:16Gareth van OnselenThe DA is improving. Not dramatically — but steadily recovering from previous declines.00:18:30:07 - 00:20:13:15Gareth van OnselenSmaller parties like the PA are growing strongly — though selectively. Their rise is real, but concentrated.00:28:44:19 - 00:29:35:02Gareth van OnselenThe IFP is stable — consistent baseline support around 25%.00:26:05:16 - 00:27:32:04Gareth van OnselenKey takeaways:ANC in long-term declineTurnout stabilising but lowEFF stableDA improvingSmaller parties rising in pockets00:29:52:21 - 00:30:08:13Alec HoggFascinating insights from real data. Gareth van Onselen, CEO of Victory Research.

Gareth van Onselen: By-election tracker signals ANC collapse to 35% - data reveals SA’s political shift

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