Chris Steyn (00:01.72)

Welcome to the NdB Sunday Show with me Chris Steyn and Political Analyst Mzo Mpolase. Welcome.

Mzo (00:09.988)

Hi Chris. It's great to be here.

Chris Steyn (00:12.994)

Thank you for joining me. I'd love to talk about the future of coalitions today. May we start with the national, the Government of National Unity, please.

Mzo (00:26.586)

Well, if anything is to go by, I would say the relative stability that we see with the Government of National Unity, as it were, or coalition at the national level, has surprisingly been more stable. And I guess only stable because everyone has sort of created silos for themselves. That there's a sense that this party has carte blanche on this ministry, this department, that sort of thing.

However, when it comes to the local government level, that silo setup doesn't quite work. So what you find is the horse trading on who's going to be the MMC? Who's gonna handle this? And there, that silo effect, you may say, is to be understood as who's going to loot more? If we would have seen Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg, Tshwane, that's basically what it is. So the sort of a localised cadre deployment, if you like, and therefore the downside of that would be the corruption that we've seen.

We've seen..I don't want to cast aspersions on some of these parties, but basically this is what it is. So, and the real effect of it, of course, is that at the local level it has killed service delivery. It has meant that everything has come to a stop because it is a service to the political dynamics within the council and it is also to facilitate this…

Mzo (01:58.949)

…political economy of inefficiency, aka looting. So that has been the picture of how coalition politics looks like.

Chris Steyn (02:11.086)

And on a provincial level, the coalition government in KZN is barely hanging in there.

Mzo (02:18.924)

It's the same dynamic because I view provincial as having the same, I'd say, shortcomings as the local government level.

Whereas at the national level, there is a sense that, you know, even the DA, when it entered in this coalition setup, is that in order to save South Africa, we have to take this poisoned chalice and we have to be in bed with the ANC. And then in order not for it to be purely a dual party system, they said, okay, let's get all the others and call it a Government of National Unity.

So I would say maybe the stakes are much clearer at the national level. And at the provincial level, it's really just a step up from the same sort of partisan, regional, and as well, the incentives that go into power. So this is basically what's been happening.

And then also, you know, people like myself have always viewed it as like, do we really need provincial government? You know, so it also calls into question that, you know, if the goal of provincial government is to retain people that would otherwise be accommodated at the national level, it therefore follows that the same, I'd say, coalition dynamics that you see at the local government will also manifest themselves at the provincial level.

Chris Steyn (03:41.122)

There are people in the African National Congress and in some other parties who would like to see the Democratic Alliance ousted from the Government of National Unity. How likely do you think that is?

Mzo (03:53.175)

Mm, it's not likely because as it stands right now, if you're to view from the 2024 elections, it is basically whomever the ANC wants to work with, right? Indeed, the DA may conjure up some alternative setup that would include MK, EFF and all, but we know the likelihood of that thing happening is almost zero.

However, when it comes to the ANC, is that they would lose their control and they would be subject, though on paper, in terms of ideological alignment and all of that stuff, they should be aligning with MK, EFF and the likes. However, it would mean that the instability that exists in MK would therefore exist in whatever government or coalition that would come about.

And then also you'd have, I would say, the legacy of the politics of individuals, Zuma, Ramaphosa, and all of that stuff. So it would just be an extension of the same type of ANC that we've been accustomed to. That one is of patronage and one that is of political contestation and factionalism. So that is what it would mean. So for better or for worse, the ANC is stuck with the DA and so is the DA stuck with the ANC. That's how it will sort of work.

Chris Steyn (05:16.93)

Meanwhile, it looks like former President Jacob Zuma's MKP is heading for an outright majority

Mzo (05:25.008)

It looks like it. You know, with MK it's very difficult, even in the polling, to actually map how they will perform. Indeed, in KZN on the ground, you do see I would say a greater MKP presence. How it translates into polls, how it translates because there's also another dynamic. Well, it's very easy how it would translate in the national and provincial picture, but then you'd always know that local government has its own nuances.

That you may even in the case of the ANC when they had this party dominant system of sixty-five percent…It didn't quite work so neatly at local government level because the priorities are different, the stakes are much higher because it's councillors versus councillors and this contestation is talking about.

And then also voter turnout is different. And then also local government elections, despite local government affairs being the most important to every South African, doesn't sit in the minds of South Africans as being that important. So this also affects the turnout. It also affects how we talk about it, even in the media. It's always sort of an afterthought to the national picture.

Chris Steyn (06:46.552)

How damaging do you think testimony at the Madlanga Commission of Inquiry has been on the African National Congress?

Mzo (06:55.982)

The African National Congress, very damaging. Strangely enough, on Ramaphosa not as quite. so I guess maybe that is the picture of the ANC, is that you know, this party has gone down since Ramaphosa has been at the helm and all these sort of things that are attributed to, you know, whatever environment has been created of corruption, of patronage, of all of this political contestation, it has indeed impacted the ANC. But to some extent, Ramaposa is unscathed and those who I guess are on his side. So, well, it was his commission.

Well, so all the other commissions that have not yielded anything, right? So this is more an oddity than a norm. So yeah, but it was very damaging to the ANC. And I guess maybe for the electorate and for South Africans at large, is that like Mkhwanazi was saying in his famed press conference, is that it is for some people they couldn't fathom, like, you know, a capture, cartels and all of this sort stuff. And the Madlanga Commission has actually just spelt it out. And you saw how it was playing out at local government in the form of the Metro Police in Ekurhuleni, and all these other Metro Police departments of these various metros.

So it has really put, I would say, a picture or painted a much clearer picture of how the capture was actually happening. Of how we would think of local government as, you know, they don't have that much of a mandate, but you saw how these criminal elements were targeting local government for this express purpose to capture them.

And so I would say, and all of this happened with…

Mzo (08:53.114)

…the ANC at the helm with ANC aligned councils. And it's not just from the previous election. As you saw, it's historic. These things have been going on since the 2010s and all of this stuff. One would argue even earlier, you know.

Chris Steyn (09:09.816)

We've heard a great deal about the Big Five, but there are people behind the Big Five. Do you think those people will be exposed before the Madlanga Commission has to wrap up its hearings?

Mzo (09:21.488)

They have to be because the true litmus test of the efficacy of this Madlanga Commission, or as with all commissions, is that who has accounted, who is in the orange uniform in prison? And for that to happen, you cannot take the foot soldiers as it were, the runners of the corruption. You have to go to the architects of it. And when you look, for example, some of the individuals that have thus far been implicated or are having court cases now, you do feel that there is perhaps a hand behind these individuals, you know, the almost strategic targeting of provincial, local government, by entities, by individuals who, for lack of a better word, were having someone's…you know, I wouldn't want to say Third Force 'cause you go into the ANC speak of things, but there has to be some power behind it orchestrating all of this. And certainly the license by which some of these people are operating, it has to be.

Chris Steyn (10:42.54)

The they seemed unaccountable, to themselves certainly. It was if they were so certain of their power and their backing.

Mzo (10:46.052)

Yes, so so.

Mzo (10:50.958)

Yes. For example in the Zuma years, the whole machinery of the Gupta's was that you name drop the Zuma name and you've got this tacit permission by which to go to these departments to get all these State-owned enterprises because you have this tacit permission to do this.

So this also has that lining that these people were doing this because they were fearless and they did this because they know there won't be consequences, at least immediate consequences.

Chris Steyn (11:29.166)

Now, if the Madlanga Commission of Inquiry did not happen, we would have seen Special Leave Minister Senzo Mchunu possibly as the next president of the African National Congress. We would have seen General Shadrack Sibiya possibly as national commissioner, General Feroz Khan probably as head of Crime Intelligence, Andrea Johnson, head of the NPA. Would that have meant that we had a cartel-owned group of people running the country?

Mzo (12:05.072)

Certainly. And the scary part is that they were already running the country. That is the whole thing. And the Madanga Commission was that hurdle that was there and it is only now, maybe as we try to map out, that we could possibly undo it. Because they were running it. You saw this this whole thing of IDAC for me was so shocking by how things were so coordinated and concocted and forget the legal rationale and legislative rationale for some of these departments and prosecuting units that come up, how they link into the whole justice system. It's rather saying like you know, these oaks were just going around and concocting and targeting individuals with impunity and all using the resources of the State by which to do it. So all of that was already happening and if it actually continued, we would basically be a cartel mafia state.

Chris Steyn (13:09.838)

Now, our intelligence services may not be the best in the world, but surely they must have known what was happening. Why was there no intervention? Surely they must have reported it at the highest level.

Mzo (13:25.924)

Well, because who do you report to when Feroz Khan is at the helm? Who do you report to when Sibiuya is at the helm? Who do you report to when we've got a minister who's now been suspended for almost a whole year almost?

So and sometimes it's like these things…and of course with whistleblowers being targeted who did actually try to uncover all of this and report all of this through the proper channels. But they met a fate that no one wants. So there was capture happening. And where you'd say ordinarily to people, well, go the proper channels, the whistleblower setup, go to your superiors. Which superiors when the very helm is rotting?

Chris Steyn (14:18.306)

Would you like to take a guess at the hidden hand?

Mzo (14:23.31)

Well, I don't want to be sued. But in politics there's this thing that says who stands to benefit? That is always the yardstick and I'd say benchmark by which to understand things. Who stands to benefit from a police service that is captured? Who stands to benefit from a justice system that is captured?

And when you start to unravel some of the things, whether they manifest through human trafficking, through drug making, porous borders for drugs and all of these sorts of things, then I don't wanna speculate, but it's obviously someone who benefits from a captured police force, and a captured police force. That means that crimes can continue unabated. That for example, if you're running a drug empire, if you want to loot at an industrial scale at local government, it helps that you have a police service that is inefficient, that is captured, that is incompetent.

So I would say one needs to do a forensic analysis of these individuals who are caught up in all of these things. Where does the money go back to? Or what sort of behaviour was it facilitating? Then perhaps we would know, see who is the head or rather the main beneficiaries of such a thing. And as I said, I don't want to speculate to that level, but if you can understand the whole machinery of it, then you'll understand who benefits or stands to benefit.

Chris Steyn (16:03.63)

Who do you think should still be subpoenaed to testify?

Mzo (16:08.356)

Well, I think actually, now that we've got a much clearer picture, I think Senzo Mchunu should come back. And while I would say to you he was there and all of this stuff, and even Mkhwanazi himself was there earlier, is that at that time it was still that infant stages of all of this stuff. So now we have a much clearer picture, we can put to individuals actual specific questions, and questions that could possibly lead to some sort of prosecution, meaningful prosecution. And it's fair. I mean like this not to falter or blame Madlanga. That's how any sort of legal inquiry goes, is that used there's a starting point and the evidence emerges and then you go back to the suspect as it were or in the named individual and then you have a much clearer picture whether to prosecute or whether to acquit or whatever.

So I would say they still need to come back. And then also I know it's not within the limits of or ambit the Madlanga Commission, but one would have thought maybe another commission is needed, maybe an upgrade of this commission is needed. To me it shows how wholly inadequate the Zondo Commission was. So it's almost as if you want to do that again and with a sort of wider, more comprehensive view of the State, so that you not only just focus on policing, you focus on the whole machinery of State.

Because anyone who deals with this government, You are shocked at your municipal bills. You're shocked at the infrastructure in your locality. You are shocked when you go and you want something from province. You are shocked when you need your building permits, your everything.

You are shocked at the national level and all these departments by the sheer scale…

Mzo (18:21.154)

…of looting, incompetence, corruption, and outright capture. And some of the policy decisions that have stemmed from this environment, that stuff needs to be questioned in all its manifestations.

So to my mind, it's not within the ambit of this commission, but I do think we need an MVP commission that actually does an audit of this democratic South African State that we've had since 1994. What has its role been, what it has been doing, and what it has been doing wrong?

Because when you look at all these things, PRASA, for example, the Transnet, our State-owned enterprises, SAA, you cannot catch it in time and say, well, from this period to this period, this is…You need to look at this historic decisions whose true effects we're feeling now. And then you start to see that this stuff started in 96. They've been doing this since 96. It actually has become the culture of the department.

Meanwhile, from that period, there was a deviation in law, there was a deviation in implementation and deviation in standards. So you will need to have this historic basis where you turn everything, everything upside down and actually order it and actually ensure that individuals are held to account.

And it cannot be that, I've left government and therefore I've washed my hands of all the deeds I've done. No, no, it cannot be.

Chris Steyn (19:58.233)

How long will recovery take, even with all the political will in the world?

Mzo (20:04.357)

South Africa is a very strange country in that as this commission is going on, I would think if we're a normal country, many of the things that we're having would be at the state of emergency level, whether it be the crime, the corruption. The corruption that we are seeing at the Madlanga Commission. This should be front page news: the extent of capture.

But South Africans, we sort of compartmentalise everything where you think something should be a turning point, the never-again moment. We just don't quite have that. And so you're like, okay, the commission is doing such a wonderful job. That commission is doing such a wonderful job. But seldom does that ever translate to policy, to laws moving forward. It's just good good TV, you know, good headlines. and it's never incorporated into this emerging State that will be perhaps free of corruption, that would value competence, that would value meritocracy more than anything, because those are the standards that you'll need to deliver for a competent State.

It's rather so like yeah, that that was great. Do you hear what happened at the Zondo Commission? And then we move on. And then we see that all of this stuff has never been translated. Some individuals never went to jail, the court cases, just they sort of disappeared.

And you see it, so it's not even a question of lack of political will, it's almost a case of everything was done procedurally, that process ended.

Mzo (21:52.163)

Now we're into some new era. The local government elections are coming up and all of that sort of stuff.

So a country needs that never-again moment. That something so shocking happened in this country. How do we prevent this from happening again? How do we ensure that all spheres of governance, this never happens again? All levels of government, this never happens again, branches of government this never happens again.

But usually it's revelation…interesting, interesting and then we move on. So no political will stemming from that and certainly no action stemming from that. And this actually has been the fate of many commissions that we've had in this country.

Chris Steyn (22:36.022)

Is there any other political development in the past week that you would like to comment on?

Mzo (22:42.66)

Well, it's our foreign policy. You would have seen that the president says that we must brace that we'll be out of AGOA. It was a very strange concession to hear from a president. And I guess it's on brand in a way, with many of the things that I've mentioned, that never-again moment.

You'd think it was fait accompli that we're part of AGOA. You know, we may not necessarily have in economic terms, production terms, well, it's sort of going down, have peers that are on the African continent and are part of AGOA. And we were always the ones benefiting more from this, despite our relatively advanced economic situation compared to our peers on the African continent.
But to hear that from a president saying, well, we may lose it, why? You know, and because there was a lack of political will. I'm not saying that to entertain Trump's every quirk and every whim. But you have to understand that there is a lot at stake. You're running a country here, you're not running some ANC ideological office. This is the fate of the economy, the fate of many jobs, which you promise every time. So to hear this, it's almost as if just how far can, how low can we go as a country that our president will basically do running commentary of something that they stand right in a position where they can change. And then he speaks as if it's God's will that it will be this way. It's like all it needed was decisions from you, political will from you, and a sense of diplomacy and a sense of understanding what our national interest is.

And this is where you are. So it is this thing. There is no this never-again moment. There's no political will. And there's a sense of like, you know, we'll just wing it.

Mzo (24:55.992)

It will be devastating for our economy.

As strained as our relations are with the US. And it is really this thing that we can make all these promises, but to deliver them, it means the uncomfortable conversations with an administration that's not necessarily your friend at the moment. and then you see what can you do in the name of national interest, especially an economy that has not been growing for decades.

You know, don't tell me of Mbeki's long forgotten five percent growth. We've not been growing for so long. You need a different kind of thinking and a different kind of approach to international relations to foreign policy that puts our national interests first. So that to me was the other headline of the week.

Chris Steyn (25:46.872)

Thank you. That was Mzo Mpolase political analyst on the NdB Sunday Show with me, Chris Steyn. Thank you.

Mzo (25:55.813)

Thank you for having me.

NdB Sunday Show | Mzo Mpolase: How low can SA go?