Iraj Abedian: ANC, MTN on history’s wrong side – Iran’s Syrian ally Assad flees to Moscow

The weekend's collapse of a 54-year Syrian dictatorship has dramatically altered Middle Eastern politics – and it is now clear that South Africa's largest political party and mobile phone operator, MTN, backed a losing horse. Iranian-born and raised Iraj Abedian provides context on the dramatic collapse of the Assad family's Syrian dynasty, which for over a decade had been propped up by Tehran and Moscow. The changes have implications for the ANC and MTN, both of whom profited greatly from their links to the Iranian regime and its Syrian ally. Although recently MTN exited Syria, its investment into and 15-year involvement in the dictatorship is sure to carry consequences – as are its continued operations in Iran..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter ___STEADY_PAYWALL___.The recent dramatic downfall of Bashar al-Assad, ending a 24-year reign and a family dynasty that had ruled Syria since 1970, marks a seismic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. After decades of authoritarian rule, the swift removal of Assad highlights the convergence of regional dynamics, international interventions, and shifting alliances that have defined Syria's tumultuous modern history. This development, coupled with subsequent U.S. airstrikes on ISIS strongholds, underscores the complexities of power in a region long marred by conflict..A historical overview of the Assad regime.The Assad dynasty began in 1971 with Hafez al-Assad's military coup. A member of the Alawite minority, Hafez established a dictatorship over a predominantly Sunni population. Under his rule, Syria became a focal point of cultural and geopolitical contestation, with deep-rooted connections to broader historical entities such as the Ottoman Empire. Bashar al-Assad, initially a medical doctor with little apparent political ambition, inherited the regime upon his father's death in 2000. However, his tenure turned into a brutal dictatorship, marked by widespread human rights abuses and violent suppression of dissent, particularly during and after the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011..The role of external powers.Syria's strategic location and complex demographics have long made it a target for external influence. Russia, Iran, and Turkey have all sought to shape its trajectory for their geopolitical and ideological goals..Russia has maintained a strong military presence in Syria, using the country as its sole Mediterranean foothold and a strategic base for naval and air operations. Moscow's support for Assad aligned with its broader ambitions to restore Russia's global influence..Iran viewed Syria as a critical link in its "axis of resistance," providing a corridor to arm and support Hezbollah in Lebanon. This alliance came at great economic and social cost to Iran, whose regime diverted resources to sustain Assad while its own citizens grappled with widespread poverty..Turkey, under President Erdogan, has harboured both geopolitical and security concerns in Syria. Erdogan's government has been particularly wary of Kurdish forces, which Turkey perceives as a separatist threat. In recent years, Turkey quietly trained and supported the forces that ultimately led to Assad's overthrow, capitalizing on the distractions of Russia's involvement in Ukraine and Iran's domestic unrest..The impact of the Arab Spring and ISIS.The Arab Spring of 2011 posed the first significant challenge to Assad's rule, as protests and uprisings swept across the region. While other dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya fell, Assad's regime, bolstered by Russian and Iranian support, escalated its repression. This brutality resulted in an estimated 500,000 to 700,000 deaths, millions of displaced Syrians, and widespread destruction..The rise of ISIS added another layer of complexity. The group's radical Sunni agenda briefly united unlikely allies, including the United States and Iran, in a bid to eliminate the threat. However, ISIS's presence further destabilized the region, intensifying the suffering of ordinary Syrians..Assad's downfall: A confluence of factors.The sudden collapse of Assad's regime was not the result of a single event but rather a confluence of factors. Turkey's long-term preparation of opposition forces played a pivotal role, as did the weakening of Assad's external backers. Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine and Iran's focus on domestic unrest and regional proxy conflicts left Assad vulnerable. The rapid advance of opposition forces faced little resistance, and within weeks, the regime fell..Humanitarian and geopolitical ramifications.The fall of Assad has sparked celebrations among Syrians, both within the country and in the diaspora. For years, millions of Syrians lived as refugees in countries such as Turkey, Germany, and Lebanon. The prospect of returning home is a source of hope, though it is tempered by the challenges of rebuilding a nation shattered by war..The transition in Syria also raises questions about the future role of external powers. Will Turkey and the United States work collaboratively to stabilize the region, or will competing interests lead to further discord? The lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan loom large, emphasizing the need for careful, inclusive governance to avoid repeating past mistakes..Broader implications for the Middle East and beyond.Assad's removal disrupts Iran's regional strategy, weakening its "axis of resistance" and diminishing its ability to project power through Hezbollah and other proxies. For Russia, the loss underscores the limitations of its geopolitical ambitions, particularly as it grapples with challenges closer to home..In Europe, the prospect of Syrian refugees returning home may alleviate some of the tensions surrounding immigration. However, the transition must be handled carefully to ensure stability and prevent the resurgence of extremist groups..A cautionary tale.Syria's journey serves as a stark reminder of the costs of authoritarianism and the dangers of external meddling. The Assad regime's fall, while a cause for cautious optimism, also highlights the fragility of power built on repression and external support. As Syria embarks on the difficult path of rebuilding, the international community has an opportunity—and a responsibility—to support a transition that prioritizes diversity, coexistence, and prosperity..Conclusion.The end of Assad's reign marks a turning point for Syria and the broader Middle East. While challenges remain, the fall of a dictator provides a chance for renewal and reconciliation. For Syrians, it is an opportunity to reclaim their nation's rich cultural and historical heritage and to chart a future free from tyranny. For the world, it is a moment to reflect on the consequences of intervention and the importance of supporting inclusive, sustainable governance..Read also:. In under two weeks, rebels topple 24-year Syrian dictatorship backed by Iran, Russia$4 billion legal battle between Turkcell & MTN over "bribes" to IranMTN posts first loss since 2016 due to Naira devaluation

Iraj Abedian: ANC, MTN on history’s wrong side – Iran’s Syrian ally Assad flees to Moscow

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