Listen here.In this edition of the NdB Sunday Show with Chris Steyn, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman dissects the preparedness and likely outcome for South Africa’s top eight political parties ahead of the Local Government Elections in November. He predicts a “car crash” for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC “going into the election knowing that there are a number of …municipalities and ANC heartlands which are either going to be lost or have to be sorted out by coalition”. He has good news for the DA: “I think they're well on track to being the most popular party when we tally the votes in the eight metropolitan areas after election day.” The party tipped for provincial power in KZN is former President Jacob Zuma’s MKP. “I think uMkhonto weSizwe are well on track to be the largest party.” Also listen to Sussman explain why the PA’s Gayton McKenzie “is very well positioned to be a winner in this election”; why ActionSA’s Herman Mashaba “is going to be the kingmaker” in Johannesburg; why it is likely to be a “difficult election” for Julius Malema’s EFF; why the Freedom Front Plus of Corne Mulder is “likely to grow somewhat in this election”; and why the IFP is not going into this election with the "confidence" with which it entered the previous one..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.25)Welcome to the NdB Sunday Show. With me, Chris Steyn, and elections analyst Wayne Sussman. Welcome, Wayne.Wayne (00:10.18)Chris, it's been a long time and it's great to speak to you and the listeners and viewers again.Chris Steyn (00:15.116)The viewers really miss you on the Electoral Roadshow now that there are no elections. So I'm grateful that you've made time to give them an update. The road to the Local Government Elections seems to be full of potholes, particularly for some parties. May we start with the African National Congress, please?Wayne (00:35.716)Thank you, Chris. And this is a critical election for Cyril Ramaphosa and the African National Congress. So you know that the last local government election was their worst ever performance in a local election, getting under 50% of the vote for the first time, getting 46% of the vote. This also takes place at a time when the 2024 elections had major consequences across Gauteng and KwaZuluNatal.And the last few weeks have been utterly devastating for the African National Congress. I think the list debacle, and yes, it's only two municipalities where there were no candidates submitted at all. That was Port St. John's and Ngquza Hill. But I'm going to get back to it. The loss of the court case. I just think that...This really must hurt the morale of the rank and file volunteer of the African National Congress and hurt the morale of the candidates who are planning on running for many of these seats. So let's focus on those first two municipalities, Port St. John's and Ngquza Hill. These are places where the ANC would have had aspirations at the start of the year of winning 78 to 82 percent of the seats in those wards. These are…this is ANC heartland stuff in the OR Tambo district and now they're not going to be on the ballot. And I really have empathy for the ANC candidates there, for the ANC activists, for voters who want to vote for the ANC. But they stuffed up royally over here and they're going to pay the price. And then we go to municipalities like Walter Sisulu and Sondagsrivier Vallei. Again, these are areas…not as strong as those other two mentioned, but the ANC are simply not on the proportional representation list. They're essentially moving from municipalities where they're going to most likely rule outright to being forced at the very least to come back via coalition. Now they have to accommodate other political parties in the best case scenario. So all of a sudden, when we look at the map of the Eastern Cape in 2021, it was Kouga, which is run by the DA.Wayne (02:58.188)And for a short time, Nelson Mandela Bay was run by the DA. Now you're going into the election knowing that there are a number of other municipalities and ANC heartlands which are either going to be lost or have to be sorted out by coalition. Then we have to go to Mangaung. I mean, this is one of our eight metropolitan areas, Bloemfontein, the judicial capital of South Africa, the factory of rugby players in South Africa. And here again, the ANC, one of the safest metropolitan areas. If they are going to come back to power, it's going to be through a coalition because they're not on the proportional list. So this is totally…must be totally devastating. And then there was also the issue of the mayoral candidates. The ANC is correct. You do not need to announce the mayoral candidates. Not the way the system works. However, the ANC committed to announcing mayoral candidates and every other political party is doing it. So we see the lists come out and again in some instances the ANC is totally missing. But we start seeing it at top of the list and what is the delay?So I think the ANC's campaign is off to a very poor start. Of course there are green shoots of hope, Limpopo, other parts of the Eastern Cape, many parts of the Northwest.But right now, it looks like a car crash for the ANC. And as you've heard me say on the show many times, I always believe institutions or individuals can turn themselves around. But that turnaround plan needs to be implemented ASAP, because it's not long to go to election day.Chris Steyn (04:45.602)Mm, only a few weeks. Onto the Democratic Alliance then.Wayne (04:51.226)So in contrast to the ANC in Gauteng and Tshwane, I mean, Helen Zille's campaign for mayor started well over more than a year ago. And a lot of political candidates have missteps. She hasn't really had any missteps. Of course, a lot can go wrong in the last month. But as we've said on the show, as we started closing our by-election coverage, that Johannesburg is the most populous metropolitan area in the country. It's also where most of the media in South Africa is concentrated. If you do well in Johannesburg, it can have a ripple effect, certainly in other parts of Gauteng, but also nationally. And I think that has been going well for the DA. I also think in Tshwane, they've been running a very good campaign. And I see a very disciplined concerted effort across the country where the party is really focused and they have the opportunity to do well. But as we know from our by-election coverage, the same two things which we’ve been saying in the last few months hover around the DA. Their biggest threat remains the Patriotic Alliance. If the Patriotic Alliance is able to smash down parts of that Blue Wall and Mitchell's Plain and the Cape Flats, that is the worst case scenario for the DA right now. And then of course, the Freedom Front, which we're to get to later, which I think have run a very disciplined campaign and are hoping to attract some DA voters back to the Freedom Front. Those are the two big things which the DA would be concerned about right now. One of the things, and I should have spoken about the ANC, I'm just going to go back to them very quickly. When you look at by-election trends for the ANC in Soweto, it wasn’t like that in other parts of townships across Gauteng, it's not that. The votes aren’t flowing in one direction, they're flowing in multiple directions. So it becomes very hard to stop that. Similarly to the DA, yes, they're concerned about the PA, but there's the Cape Coloured Congress, there's Marius Fransman's party, there's Al Jamah. So they being attacked from all sides and they need to…Wayne (07:11.574)…also contend with that. I think the risk to the ANC is far greater than the DA. And then just, I wish to zoom in again on Cape Town. We've got to remember that the DA have now been in charge of Cape Town for 20 years. That's two decades. And around the world, when a party's been in control for a long time, fatigue starts setting in. Is this going to be the election when the leader of the DA, Geordin-Hill Lewis, the mayor of Cape Town, is running for re-election? Is this going to be the election when fatigue steps in? That could be difficult. But right now, I think the DA is certainly in a much stronger position than the ANC. I think they're well on track to being the most popular party when we tally the votes in the eight metropolitan areas after election day. I think they'll be the most popular urban party in South Africa. But they've got their own challenges, the Freedom Front and the PA.Chris Steyn (08:06.68)Talking about challenges. On to former President Jacob Zuma's MKP.Wayne (08:13.69)Correct. And I was totally stunned when they announced a total neophyte as their mayoral candidate in eThekwini. I had to Google this person and the person didn't have much of a profile. They have now changed, they've dismissed her and they've changed the mayoral candidate. There's a more serious mayoral candidate running to be mayor of eThekwini. Look, as we know from by-election discussions, uMkhonto weSizwe didn't continue the same trajectory from the 2024 election. There are some ups, often downs, but I think there are a few things which are working in their favour. I think the ANC has failed to recover in KwaZulu-Natal. I think the EFF has failed to recover. I think the IFP and the DA are not going to be popular in some of those very densely populated townships in eThekwinii. And I don't see any new kid on the block emerge. And in the absence of that, I think uMkhonto weSizwe are well on track to be the largest party. I mean, there's some polls which suggest they're going to win over 50% of the vote. But I definitely think there's a good chance of them forming a government in eThekwini after this election which will be a landmark breakthrough for them. This will become their centre of where they'll want to showcase what they can do for residents or people. And that's a major metropolitan area. And indeed, they'll hope that's the case in other key municipalities across KZN, places like Msunduzi. Then I'm also going to be watching uMkhonto weSizwe in parts of Gauteng, particularly Ekurhuleni, where you take areas like Vosloosrus and Katlehong. These replaced the townships which were so rock solid for the ANC and some of these wards are going to be competitive. uMkhonto weSizwe says we're going to make history by winning a ward in Ekurhuleni. I think they're certainly going to win a ward or two in Johannesburg and that is going to be a significant breakthrough.And what I think, I think there are some things which are still a bit, a lot of things are unanswered but..Wayne (10:34.072)…we know that there was a lot of anti-migrant sentiment, which is linked to March and March. Now, I think the party, this was a lane where ActionSA and uMkhonto weSizwe were competing for ownership of that lane. I think uMkhonto weSizwe are currently the dominant party in that lane. But I think the anti-migrant issue has been quiet over the last few weeks. Is this going to bubble up again before the elections? If it does, I think uMkhonto weSizwe will benefit the most. I also think one positive development is the Duduzane Zuma becoming the deputy president. I think unlike his sister Duduzilei, who I think was a one-person wrecking ball. Duduzani cares about his father's legacy. He's a business person. He's more pragmatic. And he'll, I think, be able to do a better job at preventing the party from its own internal wounds, creating its own internal wounds much better than a lot of the other people around Jacob Zuma. So I think uMkhonto weSizwe is where it could well grow. And that's something we need to look out for. And again, it's a game changer. Remember, they were not around in the last local elections. So after this election, it's not just going to be about their, I think it's 58 members of parliament in the National Assembly and the MPLs across most of the country, but it's also going to be about the hundreds of councils which are likely to be elected. Then the party has a real footprint to spread its message and try and make a difference in people's lives.Chris Steyn (12:23.042)What about the once formidable Economic Freedom Fighters?Wayne (12:28.676)Correct this. We said after the election that this was always going to be a difficult election for Julius Malema for a variety of reasons. One, populists have to be on the front foot. They declined in percentage. They went backwards in the last election, but they also fell from third place to fourth place. They're no longer...yapping at the DA and ANC's hills, they are now behind uMkhonto weSizwe in the queue. Remember the growth of the EFF in the last local government election was principally because of the breakthroughs and because of Natal. There are going to be big losses because of Natal. There is, in places like the Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Northern Cape, that's where I see good opportunity for the EFF to make breakthroughs, particularly Buffalo City, which is a metropolitan area. Maybe Nelson Mandela Bay. But we saw them plateau in places like Polokwane, Johannesburg, Rustenburg in the last election. They are still the next best alternative to the ANC and many of the townships of those places. But how motivated are the EFF rank and file going to be? How strong is the bench around Julius Malema? Floyd Shivambu was the great organiser in the EFF. Mbuyiseni Ndlozi would be very good at articulating the party's message towards the media or on university campuses. Mzwanele Manyi was around there. A lot of those people are no longer around the scene. And it remains to be seen how strong those around him are to make sure that EFF challenges for the third place in this election. Right now, it looks like it's going to be a difficult election. But let's see what the polls and the momentum continues to say.Chris Steyn (14:21.411)I just want to circle back to KwaZulu-Natal and the Inkatha Freedom Party.Wayne (14:28.152)Yep, we're circling back and they are the fifth largest party in the country. And a reminder that before uMkhonto weSizwe was formed, the IFP was the party which was destined for great things again in KwaZulul-Natal. We know in 1994 they governed outright and it was a downward trajectory for many years until Jacob Zuma exited the scene and they started showing signs of recovery.In the wake of that, but still in the wake of that uMkhonto weSizwe, which flattened the ANC, decimated the EFF, totally blunted the DA's differential turnout advantage and eviscerated the National Freedom Party, the IFP put up their shield and grew in the last election. Now, Thami Ntuli is the IFP premier of KwaZulu-Natal. So he's the number one citizen in that province. The IFP is working firmly with the ANC and the DA. How's this, how's his leadership of the province going to be judged on election day? By-election trends suggest that the IFP are going to do well in this election, particularly in the more rural areas, less so in the urban areas, even though, by the way, they grew in eThekwini in 2024. But though we haven't had by-elections of KwaZulu-Natal for some time, I think there's a lot of momentum with uMkhonto weSizwegthere. If the IFP does not grow in this election, that is going to suggest that many of its supporters are not seeing Premier Ntuli and his government create the change they expected now that the IFP has the premier again.“eNCA and Mark Data,.we have a poll in the field right now, which will be coming out in October and I look forward to unpacking that with you and the listeners when it comes out. The one mystery is eThekwini and the IFP, but I would say today compared to the last by-election, where they would have been very confident, I think they're less confident today.Chris Steyn (16:45.356)On to the Freedom Front Plus, please Wayne.Wayne (16:49.306)Yeah, so even though I love political events, I don't often get to them. And last week I did go to the Freedom Front Manifesto launch to do some media work there. And it was a fascinating event. It was a party which showed a lot of confidence. Corné Mulder used this line and I'm never good at remembering quotes, but I remember this one perfectly. He said, Pieter Groenewal roer van die binnekant en ek roer van die buitekant. Pieter Groenewald sits in the Government of National Unity and stirs the pot from the inside and I stir the pot from the outside. Roer die pot. And it just shows that the Freedom Front believes that it is deriving benefit from sitting in the Government of National Unity. The Freedom Front is deriving benefit from Corne Mulder's new leadership.Look, the Freedom Front are always in a stronger position 50, 40 days after an election than what happens just before the election. In most elections, not so much, not in 2019 and not in 2021. The DA was able to squeeze the Freedom Front, i.e. get some of their softer voters back to the DA. I think the DA is certainly concerned about the Freedom Front. The Freedom Front, their supporters I met were very motivated. And I definitely think that the Freedom Front can exhibit growth, might not be major growth, but they are likely to grow somewhat in this election.Chris Steyn (18:29.236)Mm and then the highly controversial Gayton McKenzie's Patriotic Alliance.Wayne (18:35.876)Well, I don't think he would consider himself highly controversial, but look, the by-election trend suggested this, that the Patriotic Alliance were achieving huge growth, stratospheric growth, across the Western Cape platteland, the Sara Baartman district of the Eastern Cape, and the Northern Cape. The million dollar question is, are they going to have breakthroughs in the city of Cape Town? Remember they've had one ward councillor in the city of Cape Town now and the reason why they have that ward councillor is because the DA did what the ANC did two weeks ago. There was an administrative blunder. So the DA wasn't on the ballot in that by-election. Are the PA going to hold on to that ward in Kensington and how is Gayton McKenzie going to fight the election on a national level? The PA, and we've said this on the show many times before, always answered the critics' challenges. When people question them, you can only fight a by-election in Eldorado Park and in Heidedal in Bloemfontein, you can't fight a by-election anywhere else, they went and won wards near Soweto, they went and won wards in places like Newclare, they started winning wards in the Western Cape, the Northern Cape, the Eastern Cape. They've answered all those critics. Then people said they can't fight more than two by-elections a day and they did that. And they said, OK, you can win a by-election in George, but you can't win a by-election in Paarl, Stellenbosch, Malmesbury or Mossel Bay, which is the DA Blue Wall. And they won by-elections in all of those places. The one unanswered question I want to remind people of this. In 2024, I expected the PA to grow everywhere. In Saldana Bay, their growth was very, very impressive. But in Beaufort West, where the PA governed, voters turned on them. So are they going to see a rise across the board or is it going to be a bit all over the place? Again, I think Gayton McKenzie is very well positioned to be a winner in this election. The question is how big? And that is a hard question to answer now. And the other question is, can he make huge breakthroughs in places like Cape Town and Nelson Mandela Bay and be the kingmaker there?Chris Steyn (20:50.348)And how does the future look for Mr Herman Mashaba's ActionSA?Wayne (20:56.9)Look, remember Action SA were the huge stars of the 2021 election. They only contested six municipalities of the 200-plus municipalities nationwide and won 2% of the vote. This was in the back of, and remember I said this about Helen Zille at the start, if you do well in Johannesburg, it can have very positive returns on your performance because it is the most populous city in the country. 44 seats in their debut election. The ActionSA got 28% of the vote in Protea, Glenn and Soweto severely hurting the ANC. And then in places like Glenn Vista in the south of Johannesburg, they got over 30% of the vote. We know that in 2024, they ran into some uphill, into major challenges and declined. But never, you couldn't write them off because we saw this, we discussed this week in week out in your show that in townships across Gauteng there were signs of recovery across 2025 and early 2026. Herman Mashaba is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at his mayoral race. Very active campaign on social media. He's done some very interesting things in the party, such as only putting one proportional, one PR candidate in each, in many of the municipalities they're contesting in. I can explain why a bit later. He's refusing to be on stage with Helen Zille and he's explaining it, which I don't know. I think he should just make that decision and not try to explain it because I don't think it comes across to all the voters. I think it will be hard for him to get the 44 seats, but I do think in a number of heartland municipalities, he can be a significant player. And I think right now he is going to be the kingmaker in Johannesburg.The challenge for him and his party is to remain on message in the last few days. He's definitely holding on to some of that township support. I don't think his suburban support will stay with him. But if he comes out as the kingmaker in a number of municipalities, then he's a big part of the conversation and he would have made an impact in the selection. But again, Chris, and I'm just looking at the data…Wayne (23:19.642)It's about, well, the time's flying. It's about 45, 46 days to go. Don't know the exact, can't remember the exact date. A lot can happen. Which party's gonna grab the momentum? Which party's gonna trip over its own shoelaces?It's a very, very exciting time. And, as we said, the DA have run a very strong campaign with Helen Zille and Johannesburg up until now. Is she gonna trip up? Is the ANC gonna just galvanize around each other, look each other in the eye and say, let's put the fighting aside, let's put the faction aside. If we don't come together, it's going to be a disastrous election day. And are they going to improve their fortunes? So much to play for, but that's the way I see it right now…Chris Steyn (24:11.522)Thank you. That was Elections SAanalyst Supremo Wayne Sussman on the Sunday Show, the NdB Sunday Show, with me, Chris Steyn. Thank you, Wayne.Wayne (24:21.434)Thank you.