Meservey on Trump’s man for Pretoria, Islamists blocking Mozambique’s massive gas field endowment

US-South Africa relations stand at a pivotal moment, shaped by the arrival of a new US ambassador and the shifting balance of power between Washington and Beijing. Meanwhile, Mozambique’s embattled gas projects face mounting terrorist threats, raising urgent questions about South Africa’s regional influence, economic resilience, and the growing pressures of migration across southern Africa..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.While South Africans were focused on the Madalanga Commission and political drama unfolding in Parliament, a different kind of reckoning was taking place in Washington, DC Al Brent Bozell III, a conservative media figure and founder of the Media Research Center, appeared before the US Senate as part of his confirmation process to become the next US ambassador to South Africa.Josh Meservey, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute specialising in African geopolitics and counterterrorism, told BizNews editor Alec Hogg that Bozell’s appointment comes at a particularly sensitive moment for US–South Africa relations.Bozell, a long-time conservative media executive, is an unconventional choice for the diplomatic post. “He does not shy away from hard conversations,” said Meservey. “That may actually be necessary, given the current state of relations between the two countries.”.A strained relationship in need of clarity.The United States has not had an ambassador in Pretoria for some time, creating what Meservey described as “confusion” in South Africa over American priorities. “It’s positive that there will be an ambassador on the ground to speak clearly and communicate quickly with the South African government,” he said.Yet, Meservey cautioned, improved relations will not come easily. “There’s a strongly held view in Washington that South Africa must make substantive concessions before the relationship can improve. It’s not in the US national interest to continue with the status quo.”Those concessions include addressing non-tariff trade barriers such as Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies and the potential for expropriation without compensation, which have caused concern among US investors. Pretoria’s close ties with countries like Iran and Russia have also complicated matters..The US–China factor.When asked whether the recent thaw between Washington and Beijing might help smooth relations with South Africa, Meservey was sceptical. “The issues are quite separate,” he said. “South Africa’s relationship with China frustrates the US, but it’s not one of the core problems. Iran and Russia are far more central to the tensions.”Despite optimism from President Cyril Ramaphosa that trade talks might soon conclude, Meservey believes that the Biden administration remains cautious. “There’s a strong hawkish community in Washington that views China as America’s premier competitor. That mindset will continue to shape how the US approaches global alliances - including with South Africa.”.Mozambique’s gas hopes - and regional risks.The conversation turned southward to Mozambique, where two massive liquefied natural gas projects could double the country’s GDP. French energy giant TotalEnergies has resumed operations after lifting its force majeure, but ExxonMobil remains hesitant due to worsening security conditions in the north.“The Islamist insurgency in Cabo Delgado shows no sign of disappearing,” warned Meservey. “The Rwandan forces there have been effective, but the underlying conditions - poor governance, economic neglect, and religious radicalisation - continue to fuel extremism.”He noted that groups like the so-called “Al-Shabaab” faction in northern Mozambique have proved resilient. “These groups rarely disappear entirely. They may rebrand, merge, or move, but they persist because the environment allows them to recruit and survive.”.Implications for South Africa.South Africa has a major stake in Mozambique’s stability, with an estimated 10,000 to 12,000 South Africans expected to work on the gas projects. Continued instability threatens both those jobs and broader migration pressures.“You can’t be an island of prosperity when your neighbours are struggling,” Hogg remarked. Meservey agreed: “Until Mozambique stabilises and achieves some prosperity, it’s going to remain a challenge for South Africa. Mozambique is a key route for illegal immigration into South Africa - not just for Mozambicans but for others across the continent.”.Looking ahead.President Daniel Chapo, Mozambique’s newly elected leader, is currently in Washington seeking to strengthen relations and possibly reassure ExxonMobil about security guarantees. “It’ll be interesting to see whether President Chapo’s visit includes talks with ExxonMobil,” Meservey said. “Mozambique’s future - and by extension, southern Africa’s stability - may hinge on what happens next.”As South Africa prepares to receive a new US ambassador, both Pretoria and Washington face a delicate balancing act: managing regional instability, navigating global power shifts, and rebuilding a relationship that has frayed under the strain of political mistrust and diverging interests.

Meservey on Trump’s man for Pretoria, Islamists blocking Mozambique’s massive gas field endowment

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